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The week of the NFL Combine brought us a lot of news on fantasy football veterans, as coaches and executives had a lot to say and share. Scott Engel gives his insider take on the fantasy impact of these news items ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft.
The week of the NFL Scouting Combine brought us a lot of news on fantasy veterans, as coaches and executives had a lot to say and share. While the focus is on this year's incoming rookie class from now until the NFL Draft, we need to pay attention to impending free agents as well.
The news and quotes have stirred a lot of buzz, and we need to consider how those developing storylines impact fantasy football outlooks in all types of formats.
Here’s a look at how some of the biggest NFL headlines from the end of February figure into fantasy football perspectives in keeper, seasonal and dynasty formats.
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What’s in the Cards?
Kenyan Drake reportedly wants $8-10 million a year in free agency after coming off a very impressive run with Arizona this past season. David Johnson was plagued by injuries and does not look like a full-time RB anymore. I would expect the Cards to try and retain Drake and release or trade Johnson no matter what they say publicly. Ultimately, Drake has high-end RB2 upside for 2020 because he will start somewhere. Johnson should end up in a situation where he has to prove how much he can handle. Those are the outlooks for both RBs whether they stay in Arizona or leave. Drake is worth a third keeper selection or for a fourth-round penalty or later.
Hooper On the Move
It appears Austin Hooper will hit free agency, and there should be a healthy market for a tight end who can be one of the most productive in the league in the receiving game. Hooper’s upside and keeper appeal will obviously hinge on where he signs. Two of the initially reported suitors are the Bears and Packers. Signing with Green Bay would put Hooper back in the top-three TE conversation, while going to Chicago could make his value tumble to the lower depths of the top-10.
Where Does Rivers Flow Next?
The Chargers are moving on from Philip Rivers after his worst season since 2007. There is a strong widespread belief he will go to Tampa Bay, but other reports have indicated Indianapolis and Washington as possible destinations. Rivers never received enough fantasy respect during his best years and he may go undrafted in some leagues no matter where he lands. But with a deep receiving crew and strong run support, going to the Colts would be the best move for him to regain Fantasy relevancy.
Brady Buzz
The speculation about Tom Brady has been a prime offseason headline, of course. The 2019 season was his least productive campaign since 2006. There are no assurances he will stay with New England despite all his legendary accomplishments there. Brady had a mediocre supporting cast with the Patriots in ’19 and may want to go to another team that is built to win. That’s why Tennessee could be his best destination after they fell one game short of the Super Bowl. Brady may want to go somewhere that gives him one more shot at his seventh ring. Las Vegas does not seem to fit that bill and there are no early signs that the Patriots are set to bulk up the offense around the QB in a big way. It’s all guesswork at this point, but it seems Brady wants a commitment to improvement in New England or he could go to another team that is stronger around the QB position. Going to a team like Tennessee could at least boost his fantasy outlook as a QB2 while boding well for the likes of A.J. Brown.
Cam is Back
The Panthers have made it clear they plan to move on with Cam Newton as their starting QB for 2020. This is not surprising when you consider the position is thin in terms of NFL talent, not fantasy options. There are 32 teams in the NFL, not 12, and arguably less than half of the league’s teams having a starting QB they can be comfortable with. Newton has become a major injury risk and underperformer over the past two seasons. But he does have a good supporting cast, maybe his best ever, and that could boost him back into fantasy QB1 territory if he stays healthy.
Battling Cats
Doug Marrone said Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles will wage an open competition for the starting job in 2020. Foles has the bigger contract, but Minshew played much better at times in 2019, to the point where he was a useful fantasy streamer. Foles has to prove he is still worthy of being an NFL starter, otherwise Minshew will get the chance to build on a sometimes-promising rookie year. In dynasty formats, hold onto Minshew. For most of his career, Foles has not looked like a quality NFL starter.
Seattle RB Uncertainty
Pete Carroll said Chris Carson (hip) should be ready for the beginning of the regular season, but Rashaad Penny (knee) is in doubt for the start of the new campaign. Plus, there is a legitimate chance that Marshawn Lynch could return in some capacity as well. Ideally, the Seahawks would have liked to have Carson and Penny share the load. But neither has been able to stay healthy for a full season. Travis Homer is more of a depth piece and part-timer. In a best-case scenario for the Seahawks, but a frustrating one for fantasy owners, we could be looking at a Carson/Penny/Lynch committee when all are available. A timeshare of some sort appears to be very realistic. The Seahawks could draft another RB capable of stabilizing the situation if injuries strike yet again. Carson should not be a prime keeper and this RB picture is nowhere close to being worked out. It may be one to avoid in 2020 for fantasy purposes.
Sammy Sailing Away?
Chiefs GM Brett Veach said it is unlikely that the team will keep Sammy Watkins on his current deal. After a big postseason and a Super Bowl win, Watkins would attract a lot of attention in a thin market of available WRs, possibly even via a trade. But Watkins has been an annual disappointment fantasy-wise, as he has not topped 700 receiving yards in each of the past four seasons and has not caught more than three TD passes in three of those campaigns. Watkins is a consistent fantasy tease who did not even perform at fantasy WR3 levels with Mahomes. Don’t keep him whether he stays with the Chiefs or ends up elsewhere.
Kareem Staying in Cleveland
The Browns have indicated that they intend to keep Kareem Hunt as a restricted free agent. Hunt was useful in the receiving game in his seven outings in 2019, with four games of five or more receptions. That can make him a decent bye week plugger for 2020. But Nick Chubb still had four 100-yard rushing games when Hunt returned and will remain the team’s primary rusher and a high-end RB2. He is a good third keeper or worth retaining with a third-round penalty or lower.
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