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Jackson's fantasy football running back draft sleepers for the 2023 NFL season. He looks at running backs currently being undervalued that present upside.
The running back position in fantasy football has witnessed a significant shift in value over the past few seasons. The rarity of the "bell cow" running back in 2023 is evident, as most teams now utilize at least two ball carriers in a committee. This implies a decrease in the number of high-end elite fantasy assets, but an increase in the number of timeshare RBs with standalone value in deep leagues.
Running back sleepers have never been more valuable. In this article, we will thoroughly analyze the RB rankings. Each player on this list is being selected no earlier than the 100th overall pick, according to the consensus average draft position (ADP) for half-PPR formats.
There is a possibility that some of these players may not be available at their current price just before Week 1. Thus, now is the best time to seize the opportunity. Without further delay, let us delve into the details.
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Samaje Perine, Denver Broncos
ADP: RB37
Javonte Williams is coming off of a torn ACL, PCL, and LCL. While Williams is cleared and ready to go for Week 1, this may result in Samaje Perine potentially receiving a significant workload in the early part of the 2023 season. History has shown that rushing to return from major knee injuries can lead to setbacks for running backs. If Williams does indeed return for Week 1, he will likely be subject to a touch limit as he gradually regains his form.
Perine demonstrated his potential last year by accumulating 681 total yards and six touchdowns on 133 touches. He showcased his skills during Joe Mixon's brief absence by putting up no less than 17.3 fantasy points (half-PPR) in Weeks 11, 12, and 13. He consistently ranked among the top 10 running backs each week. With his experience and ample playing time, Perine presents a compelling case as a discounted RB2 option to begin the season.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
ADP: RB35
Gibson endured a disappointing fantasy football season last year. He finished as the RB31 in half-PPR formats with 899 total yards and five touchdowns. However, considering his previous accomplishments as the RB12 in his rookie year and RB10 in his sophomore year, his track record speaks for itself.
At his current RB35 price tag, he is being drafted at his lowest potential. While Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to receive a significant number of carries in the Commanders' backfield, Gibson stands out as the more dynamic receiver and playmaker among the two young RBs.
Washington boasts a talented group of skilled players, albeit without much fanfare. If new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and quarterback Sam Howell can revitalize the offense, Gibson has the potential to be a valuable asset in early fantasy drafts. Anticipate the Commanders adopting a more pass-oriented approach under Bieniemy's guidance, drawing from his experience with the Kansas City Chiefs.
This change in offensive strategy bodes well for Gibson. While Robinson handles the less efficient carries between the tackles, Gibson has the opportunity to thrive. He can act as a high-volume pass-catching threat from the backfield capable of producing big plays.
It is worth mentioning that Gibson is most appealing in PPR formats, but he remains an excellent target for the zero-RB strategy in all scoring systems. He should consistently provide Flex appeal in deep leagues while also possessing the potential for a low-end RB1 performance.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: RB36
Kenneth Walker III, who is currently dealing with a groin injury, is widely expected to assume the role of lead running back for the Seattle Seahawks. However, considering the team invested a second-round pick in Zach Charbonnet, the rookie will likely have some involvement as well. It is a prudent strategy in fantasy football to target "handcuff" running backs in high-powered offenses. Charbonnet appears poised to be one of the premier backup RBs in 2023.
Notably, Charbonnet possesses a more impressive receiving skill set and resume compared to Walker III. This suggests that he may have the opportunity to serve as the primary third-down back for Geno Smith. Even if he remains in a backup role, Charbonnet is likely to deliver several weeks of double-digit fantasy scoring.
However, should anything happen to Walker III beyond his groin injury, Charbonnet would immediately possess RB1 potential as the team's primary ball carrier. In essence, Charbonnet fulfills all the criteria one should seek in a deep RB selection. He has the size, receiving skills, and the advantage of playing in a potent offense.
Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills
ADP: RB40
Harris is expected to assume the role of the primary goal line back in one of the league's top-tier offenses. This makes him a valuable asset with Flex appeal in deep half-PPR and standard leagues. James Cook, a second-year running back, is likely to serve as the primary receiving back.
However, given his relatively light 199-pound frame, it is unlikely that he will handle a workload that leads the league. As a result, a near 50/50 split in carries between Cook and Harris is anticipated.
Relying solely on touchdowns is not ideal. However, at this stage of fantasy drafts, targeting running backs with significant touchdown potential is a strategic move. Barring any injuries, it seems highly probable that Harris will have a season with double-digit touchdowns. Especially considering his track record as a former New England RB. If Cook happens to miss any playing time, Harris could potentially take on the role of a featured workhorse for a stretch of games.
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: RB42
Mitchell displayed promise as a rookie in 2021 with 207 rushing attempts resulting in 963 yards, 4.7 yards per carry (YPC), and five touchdowns. Due to two separate knee injuries, he only played in five regular season games. However, during that time, he managed to accumulate 279 rushing yards on 45 attempts resulting in 5.6 YPC. The 49ers' primary backfield role belongs to Christian McCaffrey. However, Mitchell is expected to have value as a standalone between-the-tackles runner in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
McCaffrey will receive a larger share of valuable touches in the receiving game and red zone. It is important to note that he had more than 19 rushing attempts in a single game only once after joining San Francisco. Consequently, Mitchell could see double-digit rushing attempts every week.
Considering the 49ers' history of dealing with numerous injuries in recent seasons, it can be assumed that they will deliberately and intelligently manage McCaffrey's workload. Mitchell is likely to provide Flex appeal in deeper leagues as the team's RB2. He will become an immediate must-start option if McCaffrey is unable to play at any point during his seventh NFL season.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: RB50
Bigsby's selection by the Jaguars in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft came as a surprise. This indicates that he may have a genuine opportunity to make an impact as a rookie in one of the league's up-and-coming offenses. Jacksonville competes in a weak division and will face the less formidable NFC South. This suggests that they could hold substantial leads throughout the 2023 season. This scenario sets the stage for run-heavy game scripts and numerous red zone opportunities in which Bigsby could excel.
Travis Etienne Jr. struggled to convert a significant number of his rushes inside the 10-yard line and within the five-yard line. He found the end zone on only four out of 23 and two out of 10 attempts, respectively. Could Bigsby have been drafted to assume goal line duties? It is certainly a possibility.
At the very least, Bigsby is poised to become a premier handcuff option. He has the potential for a workhorse role if Etienne Jr. were to miss playing time due to injury. Considering the rate of injuries among running backs, there is a decent chance that Bigsby could become a must-start option in at least one game this season.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
ADP: RB62
With Kareem Hunt no longer on the Browns, Ford is slated to be the RB2 behind Nick Chubb for the 2023 season. Over the past three seasons, the Browns have consistently had two running backs who were relevant in fantasy football. This indicates that Ford could have a significant role in his second year in the league. Notably, Ford possesses superior receiving skills compared to Chubb. There is a possibility that the team will adopt a more pass-oriented offensive approach as Deshaun Watson returns to form.
Ford is another running back who could hold standalone value in deep leagues. However, he primarily serves as a premier handcuff and would experience an immediate increase in value if Chubb were to miss any playing time. Chubb is coming off a career-high 302 rushing attempts and played his first full season since 2019. This makes it likely that he may miss a game or two during the 2023 season.
Cleveland boasts a top-five offensive line and has added new weapons in the passing game. They also possess a high-ceiling quarterback who is expected to show significant improvement this season. All of these factors bode well for Ford to provide value at his remarkably affordable price. It's worth noting he's dealing with a hamstring injury, but he should be ready to go when the season begins.
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