X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early One-Man Mock (Rounds 2-5) - 2022 Fantasy Baseball

Pierre's one-man mock draft for the 2022 fantasy baseball season, reviewing picks from rounds 2-5 to establish early ADP.

I've already run through the first round of my one-man mock, which you can check out right here. Now, let's move on to the next few rounds with a look at how early drafts might shake out.

I took roster construction into consideration so that a team didn't select three outfielders in the first three rounds, for example. That's always a consideration on draft day and affects ADP. My top priority, however, was to slot players in where I feel they belong and provide feedback as to the reasoning behind these picks.

This mock draft was conducted as a 12-team league with 5x5 roto scoring format.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Round 2

Pick Overall Player Team Pos
1 13 Jacob deGrom NYM SP
2 14 Mookie Betts LAD OF
3 15 Freddie Freeman FA 1B
4 16 Brandon Woodruff MIL SP
5 17 Mike Trout LAA OF
6 18 Max Scherzer NYM SP
7 19 Rafael Devers BOS 3B
8 20 Luis Robert CHW OF
9 21 Kyle Tucker HOU OF
10 22 Shane Bieber CLE SP
11 23 Zack Wheeler PHI SP
12 24 Yordan Alvarez HOU DH

 

Discount Aces

The best pitcher on the planet (when healthy) didn't make it into the first round of our mock. Jacob deGrom was insanely good through the first half of the season, posting an MLB-best 30% K-BB%, 1.08 ERA, and 0.55 WHIP. The good news is that his velocity was higher than ever before he landed on the IL. The bad news is that his injuries came to both his elbow and forearm of his pitching arm and was serious enough to keep him on the 60-day IL with no game action since early July. A selection that could make or break leagues this year, deGrom could be the ultimate ace available in round two or a wasted pick if his arm gives out again.

Max Scherzer fits the same mold as deGrom as a veteran pitcher who is still dominant on the mound but comes with a Warning label. Scherzer pitched 179 innings in 2021 and showed his typical dominance, striking out 34% of batters and keeping an ERA under 3.00. The concerns came during the postseason when Scherzer exited after 12 pitches in the NLCS with a groin strain and then later indicated he had a dead arm. Bad timing for the Dodgers and their newly-acquired ace, but it doesn't appear to be anything serious enough to lower his draft stock for next season. Scherzer is now 37 and has over 2,500 Major League innings under his belt, so there's always the chance that he'll go the way of Justin Verlander. If he heads into spring training with a clean bill of health, he should be one of the top pitchers off the board. Now that he has been signed by the Mets, it should provide a beneficial ballpark factor and, supposedly, strong lineup support.

Shane Bieber was a consensus top-10 pick last year after flat-out dominating the shortened 2020 season. Regression did hit early on, as his numbers were closer to his 2019 performance. He was still putting in quality starts on a regular basis until June 13 when he was hit hard by Seattle, giving up 10 hits and five runs. The next day, he would hit the 10-day IL with a right shoulder strain before eventually being transferred to the 60-day IL. Bieber returned for a pair of three-inning appearances at the end of the season and seemed fine. Bieber is just 26 and had no previous injury history, so the lost second half shouldn't factor into his ADP. The one item of concern might be his increasing walk rate, which has climbed from a sterling 4.7% his first two seasons to 8.1% in 2021. The strikeout totals will offset this but his ratios can't be expected to exceed the other pitchers ahead of him in this mock, so a mid-second round pick is about right.

What about Zack Wheeler? He finished second in  Cy Young voting and was a breakout performer with a league-leading 247 strikeouts. Perhaps better for fantasy purposes, he also led the NL with 213 1/3 IP. The only real question with Wheeler is whether he can repeat this type of performance. A look at his ratios over the years shows steady improvement, including an xwOBA that has seen a sharp drop since 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those of us who dropped Wheeler in disgust a few years back when he was wrecking our ratios may need time to wrap our heads around the fact that he's an ace now but this doesn't look to be a one-year wonder.

 

Round 3

Pick Overall Player Team Pos
1 25 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B
2 26 Wander Franco TB SS
3 27 Whit Merrifield KC 2B/OF
4 28 Trevor Story FA SS
5 29 Julio Urias LAD SP
6 30 Marcus Semien TEX 2B
7 31 Matt Olson FA 1B
8 32 Manny Machado SD 3B
9 33 Aaron Nola PHI SP
10 34 Lucas Giolito CHW SP
11 35 Alex Bregman HOU 3B
12 36 Robbie Ray SEA SP

 

Faces in New Places

Marcus Semien is coming off a career year where he hit 45 homers and drove in 102 runs. He was seventh among all players in RazzBall's Player Rater for 2021. That's why he earned a big payout from the Texas Rangers to play second base alongside Corey Seager in the middle of the infield. The move initially seems like a downgrade because he's leaving a Toronto offense that was second in team batting average and first in slugging and wOBA to a Rangers offense that was second-to-last in team average and wOBA and third-lowest in slugging. There's also a downgrade in HR Park Factor, as the new Globe Life ranked 22nd last year.

To count on a repeat by Semien, you'd have to put a lot of faith in former prospects like Nate Lowe, Nick Solak, and Willie Calhoun taking that long-awaited step forward to give anywhere near the same sort of lineup support. Semien's blowup season wasn't a first but the change of venue warrants caution. Drafting him in the top 30 might even be too high, now that I think about it.

Robbie Ray went from complete wild card to Cy Young winner in the matter of one season. The swing-and-miss stuff was always there in spades but his walk rate was intolerable to the point that another bad run in Toronto would have landed him in the bullpen. Instead, he put up the best numbers of his career and solved his issue by posting a 6.7% walk rate. For a full rundown of Ray's season and walk to expect in Seattle, read here.

Trevor Story won't be in Colorado next season but where will he be? He declined the team's qualifying offer, unsurprisingly, but while other top free agents like Seager, Semien, Baez, and others have inked massive deals, we've heard little on the Story front. We'll have to wait a lot longer to find out due to the lockout. Seattle is rumored to be interested but no matter where he winds up, it's a clear disadvantage compared to Coors Field.

Matt Olson could wind up with the Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers or any number of teams after his huge season with 39 HR, 111 RBI, 101 R, and a .271 average. Few players saw such a dramatic improvement in plate discipline as Olson did, going from a 17.5% K-BB% in 2020 to 3.7% K-BB% in 2021. He'll see upgrades across the board wherever he lands and is at the prime age of 27.

 

Round 4

Pick Overall Player Team Pos
1 37 Francisco Lindor NYM SS
2 38 Cedric Mullins BAL OF
3 39 Starling Marte NYM OF
4 40 Aaron Judge NYY OF
5 41 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS
6 42 Salvador Perez KC C
7 43 Lance Lynn CHW SP
8 44 Eloy Jimenez CHW OF
9 45 Jack Flaherty STL SP
10 46 Nick Castellanos FA OF
11 47 Austin Riley ATL 3B
12 48 Sandy Alcantara MIA SP

 

Career Year Repeats?

It's a bad investment to draft players coming off career years but what if it's a player who joined the 30-30 club in his first full season as a starter? Or a former top prospect who's only 24 years old and was a finalist for MVP? Or one of the top hitters at his position over the past decade who happened to crank up his power to new heights?

There will undoubtedly be drafters who feel Cedric Mullins, Austin Riley, and Sal Perez are worth taking higher than the fourth round. Mullins was a veritable league winner with his power and speed stats alone, not to mention he batted .291 and crossed the plate 91 times. Some feel that Austin Riley should have gotten more love in the NL MVP voting and that he has surpassed Freddie Freeman as the Braves' best hitter (not this author). Perez was already a favorite for those who like to settle on an offensive-minded catcher early but he blew away expectations by going deep 48 times in his age-31 season when his previous best was 27 HR.

There are justifiable reasons to rank each player higher. For Mullins, it's stolen base scarcity. For Riley, it's his tremendous upside in a potent lineup. For Perez, he's clearly the most valuable player at a position that's hard to fill (and stomach) sometimes. This drafter is a bit leery on the late-age breakout for Mullins so I'm baking in some regression. There are no issues with Riley so long as he maintains his plate discipline.

Perez is a decent bet to see a drop in counting stats, although his 11.7% HR/FB% isn't astronomical and his HR% has steadily increased throughout his career, showing that power surge may be legit. In fact, Statcast has his xHR at 57.3 last year!! Perez shouldn't fall farther than round four but it's also hard to put a batter who gets you no steals and fewer than 100 runs scored much higher than this.

 

Round 5

Pick Overall Player Team Pos
1 49 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B
2 50 Kevin Gausman TOR SP
3 51 Jose Altuve HOU 2B
4 52 Pete Alonso NYM 1B
5 53 J.D. Martinez BOS DH
6 54 Christian Yelich MIL OF
7 55 Luis Castillo CIN SP
8 56 Randy Arozarena TB OF
9 57 Jose Abreu CHW 1B
10 58 Adalberto Mondesi KC 3B
11 59 Corey Seager TEX SS
12 60 Cody Bellinger LAD OF

 

Not Betting on Bounce Backs

A year ago, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger were top-15 picks in NFBC drafts and first-rounders in many competitive leagues. Most fantasy managers were willing to overlook a disappointing 2020 from each because, well, it was 2020. We should have heeded the warning signals in this case.

Yelich battled injuries but still got in 475 plate appearances. He was mostly a fixture in the lineup the last two months of the season but wasn't any better, slumping to a .221 average in September. His hard-hit rate and walk rate remained high but nearly every expected statistic was league-average or worse. At age 29 with a bad back, perhaps we've seen him peak already. He's worth a shot as a second outfielder in the first few rounds because of his power/speed combo but I am not willing to get burned again in counting on a bounce back.

Cody Bellinger was horrific, to put it kindly. Ironic how he was given the benefit of the doubt by Dodgers fans ("he'll come around") whereas everyone was calling for Kenley Jansen's head in a year where he finished with the second-most saves in the majors and a 2.22 ERA. But I digress...

Bellinger slashed .165/.240/.302 while posting career-worst strikeout and walk rates for a 14% K-BB%. Injuries played a bigger part in Bellinger's poor output but there's no mistaking that he was flat-out awful whenever he came to bat. He has a couple years over Yelich and plays in a better lineup but the damage he could potentially do again is far worse.

Adalberto Mondesi will be drafted too high yet again in most fantasy leagues. Speed is always enticing and sometimes downright arousing to roto league managers but the steals can only come in if at-bats take place first. Mondesi took just 126 at-bats in 2021, hit .230, walked 4.4% of the time... and still managed to swipe 15 bags. That's not enough to justify a top-50 pick considering his numerous IL stints but since this is the round where the elite players with off years seem to be landing, he's worth a gamble at this point.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Custer

Is Cole Custer Worth Rostering For Talladega Lineups?
Ty Dillon

Is A Solid Value Option For Talladega DFS Lineups
Cody Ware

Is One Of The Safest Value DFS Options For Talladega Lineups
Hunter Greene

Lights Up Rockies For Eight Strikeouts Saturday
Adael Amador

Collects Three Hits And Home Run No. 1
Jarren Duran

Steals Home And Racks Up Three Hits
Framber Valdez

Tosses Complete Game In A Loss To The Royals
Michael Wacha

Spins Six Shutout Innings
Alan Trejo

Traded To The Rockies
Jackson Chourio

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Robbie Ray

Records Eight Strikeouts
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Continues To Pitch Well
Seiya Suzuki

Drives In Three Runs
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Strikes Out The Side
Clay Holmes

Tosses Five Scoreless Innings
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Nolan Schanuel

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Cam Smith

Heading To The Bench
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jarred Kelenic

Takes A Seat On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Emmanuel Clase

Available As Closer For Game 2
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Michael Busch

Sitting On Saturday Versus Southpaw
Brandon Woodruff

"Really Tired" After Latest Rehab Start
Tyler Fitzgerald

Scratched On Saturday

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF