NFFC Undervalued, Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks - Deshaun Watson, Isiah Pacheco, Davante Adams, more

August 29, 2023

Mitchell's analysis of NFFC fantasy football ADPs - players that overvalued and undervalued. His NFFC fantasy football sleepers and busts based on 2023 ADPs.

The National Fantasy Football Championships are some of the highest-stakes leagues around.

Entry fees for most NFFC contests range from the hundreds to the thousands. The NFFC Platinum League has a $20,000 entry fee and a $160,000 prize. Their ADP rankings are pretty sharp, but even those who compete in high-stakes leagues make mistakes.

Here are QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs who are overvalued and undervalued in NFFC's ADP rankings.

Overvalued QB for Fantasy Football

Deshaun Watson, ADP: QB9

Deshaun Watson's days as a top-ten quarterback are long over. He might not even be a top-15 QB. His PFF rating of 55.3 puts him as the 35th-best quarterback of 2022. Only 74.4% of his passes were on-target, according to Pro Football Reference. That puts him in a group with Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Jimmy Garoppolo. He had no pocket awareness. He got sacked an average of 3.3 times per game despite playing behind one of the best offensive lines.

People are expecting him to bounce back because he used to be good before he missed one and a half seasons because of the scandal stemming from sexually assaulting over a dozen massage therapists. However, he didn't show much progress during last season. His Week 17 and Week 18 performances were two of his worst games of the season. He averaged 4.4 yards per attempt in Week 16.

He has been looking bad this preseason too, lofting passes out the back of the end zone and throwing multiple picks in joint practices. QB9, where he is currently being drafted, is just about his ceiling. However, it is much more likely that he will finish outside the top 12.

Better picks: Tua Tagovailoa (QB10 ADP), Dak Prescott (QB11), Kirk Cousins (QB12), Daniel Jones (QB13)

Undervalued QB for Fantasy Football

Aaron Rodgers, ADP: QB16

Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers is still a great quarterback. Despite losing Davante Adams and being vocally disappointed with the rookie wide receivers he was throwing to, Rodgers still finished No. 11 in the league in passing yards and No. 7 in passing touchdowns. He was the QB14 despite throwing more interceptions than usual. This season, he has an elite WR, Garrett Wilson, to throw to, and he is comfortable with his team. The Jets have one of the best running back groups in the league. They should have a top offense, which will result in Rodgers being one of the league leaders for touchdown passes.

I do have some concerns about the Jets' poor offensive line and about Nathaniel Hackett as the Jets' offensive coordinator, but Rodgers produced with him at the helm before. I am skeptical that Rodgers will ever again be as good as he was from 2018-21. I do think it is a good bet that he will be better than he was last year. That means he will easily be better than QB16.

Rodgers is a better pick than Deshaun Watson (QB9), Daniel Jones (QB13), and Geno Smith (QB14).

Overvalued RB for Fantasy Football

Cam Akers, ADP: RB22

Cam Akers is being praised as a comeback breakout candidate on the basis of four games at the end of the season. But let's not ignore how bad Akers looked for the first eleven games of the season (he missed three weeks due to his dispute with the team). From Week 1 to 14, Akers averaged 3.33 yards per carry. The Rams have one of the two worst offensive lines in the league, so Akers will continue to get hit behind the line of scrimmage. As he plays for a garbage offense, he will have an extremely high yards-to-touchdowns ratio.

Better picks: Dalvin Cook (RB23), James Conner (RB28), Isiah Pacheco (RB30)

Undervalued RB for Fantasy Football

Isiah Pacheco, ADP: RB30

Isiah Pacheco is a powerful runner who looks like he's trying to hurt someone on every play. That's always been his strong suit. His NFL.com scouting profile says he is a "hard-charging, high-energy runner." While he "struggles to hit points of entry with proper timing" and is impatient at waiting for blocks to develop, those weaknesses do not hurt him so much in Kansas City, which has a strong offensive line and an offensive genius dialing up the plays. 

Pacheco averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his rookie year, and he has room to improve his fantasy production in year two. He only scored five touchdowns while backup running back Jerick McKinnon caught nine touchdown passes, seven more than his previous career-high for receiving touchdowns. Many of McKinnon's touchdown catches came on flips from Mahomes when he was in trouble. They were a bit flukey and unlikely to be repeated. That means Pacheco could score more touchdowns in normal circumstances. 

Better pick than: Alexander Mattison (RB26), Rachaad White (RB24)

Overvalued WR for Fantasy Football

Michael Pittman Jr., ADP: WR32

Player Profiler analyst Matt Kelley said, "I love Michael Pittman. He's been in quarterback hell." I hate to break it to the Podfather, but Pittman's quarterback this season is Anthony Richardson. Richardson completed 54.7% of his passes at Florida. His completion percentage actually declined from his sophomore season to his senior season. Now, he'll be facing much tougher defenses in the NFL.

Richardson's backers say he has so much raw talent that it was worth the Colts taking him with the No. 4 overall pick. That's the same thing we heard about Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, both physically gifted quarterbacks who failed at the NFL level after being taken early on potential alone. Like Lance, Richardson had very little experience in college. He only attempted 393 passes in three years at UF. He needs a lot more reps if he is to learn.

Maybe they're right. Maybe coach Shane Steichen, who oversaw the development of Jalen Hurts, will eventually make Richardson a star. But Hurts had much more experience in college and looked better. At any rate, Hurts didn't become the dual-threat passing and rushing sensation he is in just one year. If Richardson does eventually succeed, it will take much longer than one year, too. Pittman will remain in quarterback hell in 2023.

Better picks: Mike Evans (WR33), Marquise Brown (WR35), Jahan Dotson (WR36), Jordan Addison (WR39)

Undervalued WR for Fantasy Football

Davante Adams, ADP: WR9

Davante Adams is the most talented wide receiver in the league and the leader in receiving yards and touchdowns since 2019. He has caught seven more touchdown passes than the runner-up, Mike Evans, and ten more than Tyreek Hill. Now Adams is sliding just because people don't like Jimmy Garoppolo, who was a capable quarterback in San Francisco. 

Sure, Garoppolo isn't prime Aaron Rodgers, but neither is, or was, Derek Carr. Carr completed just 60.8% of his passes last season, while G completed 67.2% of his passes. He also completed 68.3% in 2016 with the Patriots when Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator. 

Carr's completion percentage when targeting Adams was even worse. Only 55.6% of targets to Adams were completed, a rate about 10 points lower than Adams' career rate, which I blame mostly on Carr. Adams has a path (even if unlikely) to being WR1. It's more likely he'll finish between WR3 and WR6, but that's still higher than the WR9 spot he's being drafted at.

Better pick than A.J. Brown (WR7), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR8)

Overvalued TE for Fantasy Football

Cole Kmet, ADP: TE13

In some moves that went under the radar, the Bears added Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis this offseason. Tonyan has averaged over 25 yards per game since 2020, and Lewis is known as a strong run blocker. According to PFF, "the Lewis addition could lead to Kmet playing fewer offensive snaps this season," and "this could hurt his upside."

Maybe more impactful, the Bears added D.J. Moore. Now, they have a capable receiving corps. Cole Kmet's second-half surge in 2022 was helped by a high target volume. He was hit with 49 targets in the final nine games of the season, which would have paced for 93 over a full season. Don't expect him to be targeted five times a game with the new weapons the Bears added.

Better picks: Tyler Higbee (TE15)

Undervalued TE for Fantasy Football

Taysom Hill, ADP: ~TE80

Taysom Hill was one of the most versatile players in all of football in 2023. As the best passer in the Saints tight end room, Hill completed 13-of-19 passes for two touchdowns. His 10.5% touchdown rate as a passer reflects the fact that the Saints usually trotted him out in high-leverage situations and designed plays with the express intent to strain the defense and create big plays. 

As the Saints' most athletic former quarterback, Hill carried the ball 96 times for 575 yards and caught nine passes for 77 yards. His high touchdown rate (nine touchdowns on 105 touches) was not out of character for him. In his career, he has scored 32 touchdowns on 360. It's a result of his big play ability, not an outlier stat that will return to normalcy.

This offseason, Adam Trautman left New Orleans, and coach Dennis Allen plans to use Hill more as a pass catcher, adding to his value in PPR leagues.

Better pick than Brock Wright (TE77), Darnell Washington (TE78), O.J. Howard (TE71), Ross Dwelley (TE42), Irv Smith Jr. (TE20)

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