Early Summer ADP Fallers at Wide Receiver

June 22, 2021

Antonio Losada examines ADP variation of wide receivers from the start of May and assesses their situations to find key fallers at WR in fantasy football drafts.

I am going to start this column by introducing the idea of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the past month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three wide receiver fallers.

Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

First things first: the more Waddle's ADP keeps falling, the higher ROI you'll get from him. Right now, looking at the rookie wideout's ADP (115th overall at the time of this writing) and comparing it to his projection (trusting PFF numbers), we are already in positive territory when it comes to his expected ROI. Waddle is getting off draft boards as the WR46 while he is expected to finish the year as the WR45 and with a total 175+ PPR fantasy points.

So, why is Waddle's ADP falling these days? First of all, check that image above once more and you'll realize the drop isn't nearly as steep as you might have thought. We're talking about fewer than a full round in 12-team drafts, and Waddle is (almost) still keeping his head above the 10th-round waters. If we have to look for actual reasons about this, though, one of the main might be some concerns about QB Tua Tagovailoa, who recently went on to tell reporters that he was struggling as a rookie manning the Dolphins' pocket.

Now, remember: Tua and Waddle already shared the field in Alabama, and they're reuniting in Miami. Tua should level up if only a bit, and Waddle sounds like a lock to play off the slate with WR DeVante Parker and Will Fuller on the outside. Tua will have plenty of options on offense, and Waddle will benefit from defenses having to focus on multiple skill-position players, opening routes for the freshman.

Waddle is turning into a very valuable play and has a "positive" ROI above the ones of players like Laviska Shenault Jr., Antonio Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom have higher ADPs but lower projections. Draft Waddle at his price, and even more if it keeps dropping.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Sutton is coming back from pretty much what amounted to a fully-lost season in 2020. While the ADP has stayed very stabilized of late, the truth is that there is a slight drop going on when it comes to Sutton's draft position, already down eight picks from where it was a month ago.

Nothing has come out of Denver's training camp that might have fantasy GMs truly concerned. In fact, if we just follow the news coming from the Broncos' camp, things are looking better than worse for Sutton these days. KJ Hamler and Noah Fant got banged up and/or missed practices here and there. And Sutton hasn't suffered any setback or injury through it. What's the problem, then? Well, the problem is that Denver has been involved so much in Aaron Rodgers rumors that my best guess is that fantasy GMs are upset at the franchise ultimately not trading (yet) for the QB, and thus are fading every single warm body part of the Broncos squad.

That's dumb when it comes to head honchos and superstars. Put a WR1 under a mediocre quarterback, and he will still rack up points. As simple as that, folks. Denver will probably start the year fielding one of Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater. Those are far from QB1-talent passers, but they will get the job done. If Rodgers or Deshaun Watson gets to Colorado, fine, but if they don't, alright then.

Sutton's ADP of 79 and WR31 is virtually on par with PFF's projection for him: a WR32 finish with 203+ FP in PPR-format leagues. If it keeps dropping at its current pace, by the time the 2021 season kicks off, Sutton will be on the positive side of expected ROI. Same as with Waddle (read above), go draft Sutton before you get snipped.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

Not a lot to discuss here, as things are rather obvious in this case. The Titans are a rushing team, that's what's killing Brown's upside and making fantasy GMs fade him, thus lowering his ADP... Nah, that's not the reason. If you've been living under a rock, the Titans traded for Julio Jones. This offense now features Jones and RB Derrick Henry to go along with A.J. Brown, and given Jones' past and reputation in the league circles, odds are he gets a ton of passes from QB Ryan Tannehill.

No worries, though, as Brown is just moving from being THE WR1 to just A WR1 in 2021. That means we might find Brown scoring 245+ FP over the year (as PFF has he projected to) instead of, say, 285 or something like that. Again, nothing concerning. Brown's ADP of WR6 is a little bit higher than his projection to finish as the WR9 of the season, sure, but those projecting to more PPR points than him are also tied to usage advantages that we'll have to see if 1) actually benefit them and 2) are much better than Brown sharing the field with an attention-grabber as Jones will be for defensive units.

Some names above Brown in the projections are Chris Godwin (will share the field with Mike Evans, just to name another WR from Tampa Bay), Justin Jefferson (ditto with Adam Thielen in Minny, plus he comes off a career year), and Calvin Ridley (yes, Julio is now a Titan, but are we trusting Ridley to catch everything and then some?).

Don't hesitate to draft Brown inside the first round or two. He's already a massive value, has scored 217.1 and 247.5 in his two years as a pro, finished both seasons in the WR2 and WR1 realms respectively, and is only getting better with age. Jones or not, Brown is getting off draft boards at a very reasonable price.

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