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Justin Carter analyzes potential running back breakouts for the 2021 fantasy football season.
It's never too early to talk about potential breakouts in fantasy football, right?
Well, maybe sometimes it is. It's April 2021, so we're not going to discuss 2023 breakouts or anything like that. But 2021 breakouts? Oh yeah, let's go!
Here are three running backs who are poised for breakouts in 2021. My criteria: these players have never had a season as a fantasy RB1 but have a great chance to be an RB1 in 2021.
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J.K. Dobbins - Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins' path to being a top fantasy back seems pretty clear. His snap counts mostly rose as last season went along, and from Week 10 on, he had double-digit carries in every game he played. He took over half the offensive snaps in both playoff games.
Looking into his carries, he had 31.42 percent of the attempts and 49.1 percent of the positional attempts from Week 10 on. Dobbins did well enough to make Baltimore move on from Mark Ingram II as the season went along.
Dobbins still has to contend with Gus Edwards potentially siphoning off touches, but in an offense built around the run and whose big offseason acquisition was Sammy Watkins, I don't think this team is suddenly going to become pass-happy.
From an analytics point of view, Dobbins has a lot of things going in his favor.
Like, A LOT.
Per PlayerProfiler, Dobbins was first among running backs in two metrics: true yard per carry (5.4) and big run rate (8.2 percent). Dobbins is an explosive player -- he was also third in yards created per touch. That explosiveness could go down a bit if he gets too many touches, but in an offense that led the NFL in run plays per game last year with 34.7, even a slight dip in big run rate won't matter much if he gets 60 percent or so of the running back carries in Baltimore. Dobbins is primed for a big 2021 season.
D'Andre Swift - Detroit Lions
While we're talking about second-year running backs, let's talk about D'Andre Swift.
Swift was a bit of a surprise pick last year for Detroit, but by the end of the year, he'd shown why the team was ready to move on from Kerryon Johnson already.
Swift -- who runs a 4.48 40 -- showed his prowess in the run game and receiving game. As a runner, he was 13th in big run rate and had three of his eight rushing touchdowns over the final three games. He was targeted at least four times in all but one game and was still targeted three times in that game. Among running backs, he was third in yards per route run as a receiver and 11th in yards per reception.
Swift's 57 targets led the team's running backs by a wide margin, but Adrian Peterson had 156 rushing attempts to Swift's 114. But Peterson is gone now, replaced by Jamaal Williams, who just doesn't scare me in terms of siphoning off work as Peterson would have.
Swift should lead the Lions in rushing attempts this year. He was already the PPR RB18 last year with Peterson taking more of the rushing work off of him. I'm expecting a huge year out of Swift, especially when you factor in that the team's QB change should lead to a more run-centered offense considering they won't have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball.
Chase Edmonds - Arizona Cardinals
Yes, I know the Cardinals signed James Conner. I also know that James Conner is maybe not very good. Per PlayerProfiler, Conner was 50th in true yards per carry last year, 45th in production premium, and 118th in EPA. His per-play numbers weren't great, as he was 80th in fantasy points per opportunity.
To put it simply: Conner is some decent Chase Edmonds insurance, but he's not going to stop an Edmonds breakout.
Edmonds was 20th in true yards per carry and seventh in yards per touch last season. He did that while running behind an offensive line that ranked 30th in adjusted line yards last season, per Football Outsiders. This offseason, Arizona added guard Brian Winters to help bolster that line plus second-year tackle Josh Jones should improve this year as well. Things should be looking up for this line, especially if they use a draft pick to add to that line depth. I've seen a lot of mocks that have them going O-line at 16 assuming that the top cornerbacks they want are off the board. That's another potential bonus in Edmonds' favor.
Other Candidates
I don't feel super confident in anyone else breaking out, but there's a good chance that someone else does. Here are some quick thoughts on other potential breakouts:
- Antonio Gibson was already the RB13 last year in PPR, so I did not include him here because, well, he basically broke out already. But I guess he could qualify here if he takes another step forward and earns more touches in the passing game.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire will probably be a popular pick, especially with no big offseason move at running back. That's fine. I can see it. But, CEH had a disappointing rookie year and this is still an offense built around the pass. He feels more like a guy who caps off as a high-end RB2.
- Myles Gaskin down in Miami could end up having a volume-aided breakout because the team hasn't added anyone who really threatens his workload. But also...I just think Miami drafts a running back at some point. If they don't, we'll revisit this.
- Cam Akers probably could have gone on this list, but running backs in Matthew Stafford offenses tend to not break out, so for that reason I'm really hesitant on him.
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