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Running back Jerick McKinnon wasn't able to take the field in his first season for the San Francisco 49ers. Richard King takes a look at McKinnon's value in dynasty leagues for the 2019 fantasy football season. Should you buy him or sell him as a long-term prospect?
When it comes to dynasty football leagues, you know there is no offseason. Without the in-season worries of setting lineups and waiver wire claims, dynasty league enthusiasts can focus their efforts on making trades to improve their teams and preparing for rookie drafts. Offseason narratives can be difficult to navigate, but we are here to help!
Today's column will take a look at San Francisco 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon. We will start off with an overview of the veteran and then take a look at analyzing his value in dynasty leagues. Then, to finish it off, we will propose some possible trades involving McKinnon to give you some ideas for either buying or selling him.
For all discussions regarding McKinnon's dynasty value, let's assume you are playing in a 12-team, one-quarterback dynasty league with 0.5 PPR scoring. As always, player values can shift quickly in dynasty leagues so be sure to stay on top of the NFL news cycle when proposing trades.
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Overview
Jerick McKinnon
Team: San Francisco 49ers
College: Georgia Southern
Height/Weight: 5'9", 205 pounds
2014 NFL Draft: Round 3, Pick 96 overall
McKinnon was selected in the third round by the Minnesota Vikings in 2014 and worked in a rotation while he was there. In his rookie season, he led the Vikings with a 4.8 yard per carry average and ranked second on the team, even though he only played 11 games that season due to a back injury. He finished the season with 538 rushing yards and 135 receiving yards.
In 2015, McKinnon was again efficient with the opportunities that he was given, finishing with the team high in average yards per carry with 5.2. McKinnon finished the season with 271 rushing yards and 173 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
In 2016, McKinnon was able to have more of an impact due in part to the season-ending injury that Adrian Peterson suffered early in the season. McKinnon worked as part of a committee of running backs, finishing the season with 539 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while he was able to also add 43 receptions for 255 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.
In 2017, McKinnon started the season behind rookie Dalvin Cook. Cook tore his ACL in Week 4, but McKinnon wasn't given the reigns of the backfield as he was surpassed by Latavius Murray. However, McKinnon was still able to post career-high numbers. Finishing the season for 570 rushing yards, and three touchdowns to combine with 51 receptions for 421 yards and two touchdowns.
2018 was a lost season, as although McKinnon signed a four-year $30 million contract with the San Francisco, he wasn't able to play a single game. McKinnon tore his ACL during a team workout, ending his season.
Dynasty Value
What a difference a year makes! Last season, McKinnon was being sought after by fantasy owners. Last season, he was being selected at the start of the third round according to Fantasy Football Calculator, while he is now able to be picked up in the middle of the seventh round.
The main reason being that a lot changed in the backfield in the Bay this season. Matt Breida was able to put in effective performances, and the team signed free agent Tevin Coleman to a two-year, $10 million contract this season. Clearly, San Francisco has a plan for McKinnon for this season. He would have been moved on if the 49ers had no use for him. However, the uncertainty over his injury and the free agent signing of Coleman has depressed his value.
Possible Trades
From a draft pick perspective, if selling McKinnon, I would be looking to try and get a first-round pick for him. If I was trying to buy McKinnon I would be looking to try and obtain him for a second-round pick.
Here at Rotoballer, we currently have him ranked as the RB28 in dynasty leagues, which puts him in Tier 4 at his position. If I was looking at trying to acquire a wide receiver, I'd likely look to add him with another player or draft pick to try and move up a tier or a player that is a more borderline Tier 3 receiver.
I'd look to try and move McKinnon and something for players like Kenny Golladay, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp who are effective receivers but not league-winners, although I would settle for players like Sammy Watkins, Dante Pettis, Keke Coutee if I didn't have to add anything of significant value.
Conclusion
McKinnon has had significant depressed value this season, with the changes in the backfield for the 49ers. I would likely hold him unless I was able to trade him for a good value as above and see if he is able to get some good performances under his belt before seeking more offers during the season to an RB-starved team.
