RADIO
We are two weeks out from the PGA Championship at Oak Hill and with this week being an elevated event, there will be many top tier players teeing up this week that will also be in contention in a fortnight. These are guys we are going to try identify as well as some value buys and high end sells for this week.
If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics and few more sneaky tips that can help you along your journey of building a player pool that can provide you with both short term and long term upside.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
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ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in)
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my Masters model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards (usually #/600 edition tier) on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
Supply and Demand
The average price of a card has gone down by about $7 since the Masters. The pack drops and overall demand for elite golfers playing in a major may be the reason we see a drop in pricing. Also, we are inching closer to the end of the season where, by the end of the Tour Championships, these cards may have lost the majority of their value.
The most expensive golfers
The golfers who have seen their value INCREASE the most recently
Unsurprisingly, Finau has seen a $13.71 increase over his average asking price since the Masters. It most likely has to do with his win in Mexico. It seems like the market is trying to get ahead of the public in regards to garnering some KH Lee cards a week before he tees it up as the back-to-back defending champ at the Byron Nelson next week. Emiliano Grillo has seen an uptick in form and so has his stock price, along with Benny An, Gary Woodland and Patrick Rodgers who will all be playing this week.
Of these golfers, I would be willing to take advantage of Tony's surge in price and sell him high if you are an owner if his cards. I just don't see him winning any elevated events in the next few months. If you have been reading along with us so far, Finau has been somebody we have been saying is undervalued and now we sit with some Finau cards that we can sell for profit if we feel that way inclined.
The golfers who have seen their value DECREASE the most recently
It appears that people are getting rid of Scottie Scheffler cards right now, seeing a $75 drop in average price over the last 4 tournaments. With him teeing it up in next week's Byron Nelson and likely being a co-favorite with Rahm to win the next few majors, there appears to be some value at that price despite him not playing this week. If you are a JT truther, now seems to be the time to get in on the action as his price is also at an all time low, priced at the same amount as Sungjae Im. If you think that Max Homa was imply burnt out leading up to the RBC Heritage, now may be the time to buy low as he could return to the form we saw shortly before the Masters.
Targets Playing This Week
These are some of the golfers we will want to target if you are looking to buy at a relatively low price and enter into your lineups for contests this week. The model is suggesting that the "Min Market Price" for RARE cards is lower than our calculated price for that golfer.
"Patrick Cantlay is seemingly a functionable putter away from winning an event here soon. The market is still undervaluing his price for someone who could win any event at any moment, while providing an immensely high floor." I kept those two sentences from his Harbour Town writeup which I think is still very applicable this week. His price
Xander Schauffele may not be as good a long term buy as Cantlay, but this week he is actually ranked ahead of his best buddy in my power rankings for the Wells Fargo. If he lands up winning it this week, that $90 price tag could jump into the $100s with some majors coming up.
Jason Day has dropped below $50 a card despite finsihing inside the top-20 in 6 of his last 7 starts. He had top-10 finishes in 3 of them too. He now heads to Quail Hollow where his course history sees him sit as the Quail Queen alongside Quail King Rory.
Sungjae Im is the 4th ranked golfer in my model this week and his price of $64 is not nearly reflective of what it should be for a player of his caliber. His consistency and high floor is ideal for "Bank Roll Builder" contests and I believe this week he definitely will find himself in a few contests to try take down the top prize.
Cameron Young had a bad outing around Harbour Town still making the cut, but now he gets to unleash his power around a ball strikers paradise, where Young should thrive. His price could quite easily jump into the $100 range if he wins an event, standing a very good chance to do that this week as the sixth-shortest name on the outright odds board.
Taylor Moore is priced at $24 and is a small enough price that could see his price double quite easily with some good results. He has won an event already and now heads to a course that suits his long hitting ball striking repertoire.
Tyrrell Hatton was being sold for $150 the week of the Valero Championship and is now $36. He plays well on the east coast and is one of the better long iron players on tour, making him an appealing candidate for the Wells Fargo.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Targets Not Playing This Week
These are golfers who are not playing this week. Their market prices are all popping as underpriced in comparison to what the Model has them set at.
"Jhonnatan Vegas has committed to the Mexico Open and his game could not suit that course any better, as he has length and incredible long iron play. He will be somebody I start loading up on here." - RBC writeup. We finally hit our first injury bad luck. I grabbed about six Vegas cards and they have halved in value since his injury news came out. Not ideal.
Russell Henley played really nicely at the Masters and the model seems to think his price should be closer to $30 tag. He is not playing this week but would presume he tees it up at the Byron Nelson and then who knows what he gets up to at the majors.
Scottie Scheffler being the same price as Rory should be all you need to know that his card is currently underpriced. Grab double of him this week and then play all of them at the Byron Nelson, and then you should be able to sell half of them for a profit come the week of the PGA Championship.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
Useful Resources
I have had two revered guests on my Podcast where we strictly talk about ReignMakers that go into the basics and nuances of their process and approach each week. I do a weekly ReignMaker show with @DraftMasterFlex on Mondays at 7ET if you want to tune into that for some more ReignMaker information that we will be discussing.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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