RADIO
The ReignMakers Market is seeing its usual uptick in average pricing with the third major of the year on this week's schedule. Since tracking weekly pricing since the Masters in April, we have had only 3 week's where average prices have increased - the two week's prior to the PGA Championship and now this week. The time to sell "high" is now folks, and if you are looking to buy, don't worry, there are a few golfers whose price is not a reflection of their current trajectory/level of play.
If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics and few more sneaky tips that can help you along your journey of building a player pool that can provide you with both short term and long term upside.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in.
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my US Ipen model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
NEW Craft and Burn Feature
The reason we also may be witnessing an average uptick in pricing is because of the new "craft and burn" feature that ReignMakers has made available for us to use cheap cards that we can't get much for on the open market in "craft recipes"
If you are unfamiliar with this process, I have attached the below tweet to get you up to speed with this. Also, below is my own personal experience with the crafting process that I learnt a few things the hard way. I will go into more detail above the tweet.
The below tweet is a thread of how I went about trying to get rid of some Jhonnatan Vegas cards that had no purpose to me as he is injured. DO NOT USE the "Inactive Group 3 & 4 Recipe" for your min price cards in your portfolio as there is no financial benefit from that strategy. The crafting token costs $9.99 alone, with the majority of cards in those groups falling beneath the $10 tag on the open market.
This week you can trade in 3 low priced cards + a crafting token in exchange for a golfer playing this week, which should mean that you are getting a solid golfer in return for 3 duds. This recipe drops at 3PM ET Monday afternoon. There are no Richard Johnsons or other useless cards playing in this week's US Open. This pack will provide you in WORST CASE SCENARIO a $5.18 Paul Barjon, who along with 46 other golfers, fall under the $20 price tag, but you also have a shot at 29 golfers who all have market value above $20. A much better deal than I experienced above.
ReignMakers Bonus Cash Promo
The below tweet has a lot of really nice incentives / bonus / rewards / DK Cash if you perform certain actions or "daily challenges", with one of them being as easy as "Users who enter a RARE tier contest by contest lock on Thursday, June 15, will receive $20 DK cash for entering (one max per user)." I would definitely check this out and make sure you take advantage of some of the easy challenges that would typically take place in a normal week of ReignMakers trading anyway.
Market Analysis
As mentioned in the intro, the market is relatively bullish right now, with the public looking to get invested in some major golf. We see the biggest increase in average price this season, with a $0.85 uptick in average pricing, although, we are still an average of $3 lower than the PGA Championship.
The Tour Championship looms and people are looking to unload on golfers to try cash in on any available profits out there, with this week being a prime opportunity to sell if you have a portfolio that you feel is deep enough to withstand a bit of talent leaving the door for some instant profit.
The most expensive golfers
Scottie Scheffler is really starting to separate himself from Jon Rahm, which my model agrees with for this week and an overall short-term perspective. That orange "Trajectory + SG Total" column has Scottie as the guy gaining the most strokes while maintaining or improving over the last 24/12 rounds. Austin Eckroat has made a massive jump in pricing and sits ahead of golfers like Shane Lowry, Keegan Bradley, and Denny McCarthy, which I am not sure I necessarily agree with, but if you have one of his cards, now may be the time to sell.
The golfers who have seen the biggest dollar INCREASE this week
Compared to the 21 cards that saw a 50 cent increase in price last week, 127 currently have a price 50 cents higher than last week. 22 cards saw a $3+ increase in price. Buying Scottie Scheffler cards in the weeks between majors may seem profitable, which will be something to monitor heading into The Open in a few weeks time. Jason Day has seen a massive resurgence in price, back to where he was after the Byron Nelson win.
I am not sure I understand the Joel Dahmen love, as his recent form has been rubbish, with his T10 at Brookline surging his price this week. Sell sell sell, if you have him.
***I need to pay better attention to the contest and challenges in the tweet I shared above. The reason for the surge in prices is because there is a "$75 DK Cash" reward for Jason Day, Joel Dahmen, Harris English, and Austin Eckroat.
The golfers $5+ who have seen the biggest percentage INCREASE this week.
Roger Sloan makes a solid start in Canada and his price increases by 321%, with Hank Lebioda seeing some ridiculous growth for somebody coming off back-to-back missed cuts?
The golfers who had the biggest dollar DECREASE
Tony Finau missed back to back cuts in epic fashion, then decided to skip the next elevated event, resulting in a $19 decrease in price. Woof. Justin Thomas disappointed those who grabbed him for the PGA and is now almost less than $50. Crazy to think he was over $200 at the Valspar. Cameron Young was believed to have an illness the last few weeks, which would hopefully explain his bad play, but he has also seen a double-digit dollar decrease in price which I am very sad about.
The golfers $5+ who had the biggest % DECREASE
Ben Martin sees his price drop like a rock after a very disappointing Sunday performance last week, with Joel Dahmen not that far behind. Taylor Moore needed to take a break this week after a brutal 75 in his 2nd round last week missing the cut. He has been of the most consistent golfers recently but may be a little burnt out as you could see that come through when he was spiking his driver into the tee box at the PGA Championship. As somebody who is invested in him, he needs to take a break and come back fresh to drive that price up to a sellable range again.
Cards To Target If Just Getting Started
"Scottie Scheffler is a must roster as his worst finish in his 11 starts this year is a ... T12. LoL. The guy is a robot and now heads to a course that demands exceptional tee-to-green play which is what Scottie is doing at an unprecedented rate right now. If a $197 RARE is a little spendy, grab him in the CORE market and roster him that way. You simply have to have him in your lineups right now!" = the Memorial article. Same thing still applies this week.
"Tyrrell Hatton is playing some really impressive golf of late, with his irons and overall short game starting to trend really nicely, sitting in 20th spot in FedEx Cup points despite being winless this year. The way he is playing that could potentially change this week." - the Memorial article, and I am still bullish on Tyrrell even at $60.
Patrick Cantlay may not be a world beater in majors, but he is super consistent and provides incredible upside at $80. He is teeing it up in California on Bentgrass, which should really suit his game.
Viktor Hovland is an absolute menace in majors right now and is fresh of a win at the Memorial. He is pushing the same price as he did post Masters, but if you are a little late to the game, he may be one of the few cards you may have to eat the salary increase to try land a true contender in your lineup this week (remember, there is no salary maximum, so you can roster Scottie, Rahm, Viktor, Cantlay and Hatton if you want to).
"Matt Fitzpatrick will be teeing it up in the next 4 events, as he is also slated to play at the RBC Canadian Open, defend his US Open title in Los Angeles and then an elevated event in the form of the Travellers. Those are all mostly lower scoring events that he will thrive in and you can grab him at a really affordable price right now." - the Memorial article. Fitz struggled at the RBC Canadian Open, but on a testy LACC he should have a decent shot at defending his title at $43.
"Russell Henley is somebody who can provide you with a top-20 at an elevated event for the very affordable price of $16.90. He has been playing some really good golf and if he gets a few more tournaments on his schedule for the remainder of the year, we could see him provide extreme value at this price." - the Memorial. If Henley can dial in the irons again this week, he has the consistency off the tee to have most of his approach shots coming from the fairway, which will be a huge advantage with his stellar approach play.
Shane Lowry was a sell for me last week, as the amount of birdies he needed to make just is not in his DNA, but this week his ball striking will be rewarded a little more and his price has dropped $5 since last week. He putts better on Bentgrass and this fast and firm course should remind him of that time he won the Open? Worth a shot at $23.
Seamus Power, Eric Cole, Keegan Bradley, Taylor Moore, Cameron Davis and Denny McCarthy are all viable options at or below $21 if you are looking to round out your player pool with some cheaper guys who have upside.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Long Term Targets
These are golfers, for the most part, that are not playing this week who have some long-term upside and have been popping up on leaderboards lately and can provide some buy-and-sell opportunities if they continue to play as they have been. Justin Thomas is the only exception and we will get to him below.
If these golfers are not playing this week, probably wait to buy them after the US Open begins as prices across the market should plummet next week. If you want to roll out JT, Schenk and Dylan Wu this week, you could probably buy them this week if you felt that way inclined.
Justin Thomas has been playing some really bad golf lately, so I would not put him in any of you "A Team" lineups, but his golf and FedEx Cup ranking has got to such a dire level that he has committed to the Rocket Mortgage Classic that will take place in Detroit the week after the Travellers (3 events time). JT should be playing in all three of the next events and will be one of the most talented golfers in the RMC field, potentially seeing his price of $36 see a decent bump that week. If you are looking for a buy-and-sell based off name value alone, he may be an option.
All the above golfers are sub $12 in price and have been playing really well lately, with the RMC and John Deere Classic next up on the schedule after the US Open and Travellers Championship. These fields should see far less superstars in them and these golfers all possess the mid-tier talent to contend in the weaker field events. Now (after the US Open / Travellers has begun and prices start to fall) is the time to load up on them if you have the budget to do so, as their prices the week of will likely increase. Keep an eye out for the field list (below twitter account) for the Travellers in case a few of these names find themselves playing that week, which you will want to then have in your lineups.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
This week I will also be DMing the model to anybody that follows me who likes and retweets the below tweet:
Useful Resources
I do a weekly ReignMakers show with @DraftMasterFlex on Mondays at 8ET if you want to tune into that for some more ReignMakers information that we will be discussing.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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