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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the RSM Classic. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the RSM Classic on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RSM Classic
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Sea Island Golf Club
7,005 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda
Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. As I always note, the main takeaway from a Fazio design will be the extreme undulation that can be found throughout, but this isn't your prototypical setup from a contextual standpoint that you always get from the now 77-year-old. Fazio kept most of the links-style quirks from the original layout, and we see that with fairways that are easy to hit but will be a necessity to locate since the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the fairway. That is a total that ranks as highly as any course on tour, but I don't want to overcomplicate the explanation since the width of the fairways average 7.2 yards wider than your standard setup.
And all of that is rather basic from an expectation standpoint, but the one notable difference this week that we at least need to be aware of from a game theory perspective is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the secondary Plantation Course. That adds a more challenging wrinkle to handicap statistically since rotational events change what is being asked from the field between days, and we see that front and center by looking at the Par 70 versus Par 72 difference, where the one-off performance will feature four par-fives. In fairness, that is likely the one noticeable variation since there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type, but I generally focus on the main venue when it presents 75% of the rounds since I think it does more harm than good when the more critical days are at the main track. I am okay with adding extra emphasis on par-five scoring if you want to elaborate more on your data, but I decided against it since we are talking about only two extra chances.
Wind can play a factor, which is one of the reasons I graded it in my model, and we have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for the sake of my research since one is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers will be the 368-yard eighth hole and the 470-yard 18th. That is one of the reasons we see a consolidated emphasis on approach shots from 125-175 yards, a distance that produces an 8.5% increase from your standard course, and I feel like it is worth mentioning that 8.3% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond than what we are accustomed to on tour. That is a little troublesome when building models because it suggests a putting contest, but the fact that we get a steady distribution of anticipated yardages repeatedly should heighten the median output total, especially when we know quality putters will see a boost since we don't have as many pinpoint accurate second shots that will result in tap-in birdies.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Sea Island | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 275 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 70% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 73% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.59 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
SG: Total Short Courses + Easy Courses + Bermuda Courses (30%)
SG: Total Moderate-To-Severe Wind (10%)
Par-Four 400-450 (15%)
Weighted Putting + Weighted Proximity (30%)
Total Driving Geared Toward Accuracy (15%)
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Tony Finau ($11,200) - I typically lean against Tony Finau when he is priced at the very top of the slate, but the first-place mark that he exhibits in strokes gained total on easy, short and Bermuda courses is a significant perk to go back to when one of the biggest corollaries of this track stems from the historical data of layouts that look like it from a contextual perspective. I likely won't play Finau if the ownership remains near the top of the board, but I do understand the intrigue for this week's favorite.
Seamus Power ($10,500) - I never like these spots where the recent form of a golfer is boosting their price tag, and while back-to-back top-three finishes should be considered strong enough to grab your attention, the long-term profile of Seamus Power leaves something to be desired. The Irishman ranks just outside the top 10 of my model this week when considering all factors, making him far from a poor play in the more broad nature of that thought, but it doesn't remove the fact that he is an overpriced golfer that shows as the second option on the board. Power's weighted proximity + weighted putting places him as the only selection $9,000 or above to grade outside the top 40 of this event (41st), and the projected par-four scoring for Sea Island ranks below his two-year data on all par-four setups when taking into account the information.
Brian Harman ($10,300) - Another week, another model that loves Brian Harman's upside potential. We have seen the more recent returns show well, as the Georgia product has produced 19 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better, and the first-place rank in my database for stats, course history and current form highlights a player that might be ready to win this weekend at the RSM Classic.
As of Monday:
Early Group Ranking: Brian Harman, Tony Finau, Seamus Power
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Early thoughts on the group: I want to avoid taking strong stances on this section on Monday since my model likes all seven players. My pick below will be the one I am aggressively planning to play right now, but the rest of the group will need to have more data enter the mix.
Denny McCarthy ($9,100) - I believe I have selected Denny McCarthy once in five years of writing at RotoBaller. The American is never a player that my model likes because of his questionable returns in many of the key metrics that I attach a weight to weekly, but the extra emphasis that I placed on putting and the recalculated data that I ran for weighted proximity has my model suggesting that McCarthy's upside is the best of anyone in the field. Color me shocked since I was not anticipating that to be the case before I ran my numbers for the week, but I will trust what my sheet is telling me and try to gain extra exposure to the 29-year-old in all markets.
As of Monday:
Group Ranking: Denny McCarthy and everyone else will be decided by ownership and other factors.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I could be talked in or out of Justin Rose and Kevin Kisner if we see ownership either stay in the case of Rose or enhance for Kisner, but my favorite play on Monday is Matt Kuchar ($8,900). Kuchar has provided three consecutive top-30 finishes this season, and the weighted putting + weighted proximity places him inside the top 15 of my model.
As of Monday:
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-60 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Brian Harman ($10,300)
$9,000 - Denny McCarthy ($9,100)
$8,000 - Matt Kuchar ($8,900)
$7,000 - Andrew Putnam ($7,900)
$6,000 - Dean Burmester ($6,300)
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