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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 3M Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the 3M Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - 3M Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Twin Cities
7,481 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass
Designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman in 2000, the venue has recently seen a few changes - most notably getting extended by over 300 yards versus its typical Champions Tour layout to prepare for the 2019 iteration of the event. That added distance has allowed golfers to use length as an advantage for taking apart this relatively wide-open yet still claustrophobic test, thanks to the 15 holes with water coming into play, but it is hard to call the track anything more than a ball-striking shootout.
Three of the four par-threes do stretch beyond 200 yards, giving us this difficult challenge to produce a scoreable tally on the card at those chances, but it is the par-fives that yield the most robust opportunities of the mix - coming in at between a 39.7% to 56.1% birdie or better rate. Those three holes will be crucial for the field to take advantage of for the week, but it won't stop there for the players that want to compete to win the title, and the 11 par-fours provide an eclectic mix where five of the better possibilities will come between 379 to 424 yards. The other six par-fours do ramp back up the difficulty to the tune of each ranking inside the nine most challenging at the venue, which means if you are modeling par-four scoring as a whole, I would be cognizant of looking for both short par-four scoring where birdies are easy to come by and medium length formidable setups, but the true upside comes down to taking advantage of the scorable holes and preventing water disaster elsewhere.
We have historically seen massive increases in expected production for off-the-tee and approach stats, with the off-the-tee metrics yielding a 4.1 increase in dispersion of scoring and approach bettering that at 7.1%, so a combination of ball-striking will outweigh any of your menial short game metrics, even if strokes gained putting on Bentgrass is still a weighable option. Overall, a variety of weighted proximity, ball-striking, TPC scoring and a weighted mixture of all three scoring zones looks to be most predictive of what we need out of a golfer to compete at TPC Twin Cities, but there is some luck that will come into play, which you might notice by all three past winners at this course taking home the title at odds of over 100/1.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Twin Cities | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 290 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 63% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 72% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 55% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.45 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Ball-Striking (25%)
- Strokes Gained Total TPC (15%)
- Strokes Gained Total Bent (10%)
- Weighted Par 3 (5%)
- Weighted Par 4 (20%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (15%)
- Weighted Birdie or Better (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Let's keep things short and simple in the $10,000 section. We only have three golfers to pick between if we decide to start our builds up top, and it is not as if any of the price points will break the bank since Tony Finau leads the way at a mere $10,500. For that reason, I expect the American to go off the board as potentially the highest owned option on the slate, but none of that suggests that he still isn't in play.
We have a weird situation for the 3M Open where the chalk seems to be condensing in the same spots, and the real value can be found down the bottom of the board, which means I am not going to try and talk anyone out of a specific route to start your construction. Builds with Finau, Hideki or Sungjae are all within the range of possibilities, but be aware of aggregate ownership when the exact makeup of the build does start to form.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Remember, there are legitimate routes present if you can't seem to get yourself off the chalk and want to leave a copious amount of funds on the table. The fact that we only have seven golfers from $9,000 and above means everyone will naturally find themselves in the same spots, and it will take some outside-of-the-box thinking to get unique. My favorite play in this range is likely Maverick McNealy ($9,300) if we get some reduction in ownership from his fellow competitors in the group, but it is hard to give an answer on a Monday when pricing looks solid from top-to-bottom. Popularity and how to get different will end up telling the story.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Cameron Davis ($8,900), Cameron Tringale ($8,800), Brendan Steele ($8,300), Martin Laird ($8,200) and Nick Hardy ($8,000) are all in play for me early in the week. I likely will find myself out on the rest of the group if ownership doesn't take a drastic shift, but I don't even mind mixing and matching in this range to land your first man into a roster. All cards are on the table with construction.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-50 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against both their DraftKings price and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.
Best Early Leverage Inside Top 60 ($8,000 and Below):
Most Underpriced in the $6,000 Range:
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