DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 9: Break The Slate

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It is great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! Good process, bad results. Unfortunately, it's a familiar pill to swallow for those of us that have been around NFL DFS for any notable length of time. The Week 8 slate proved to be one of those instances. You could argue that some of last week's misses were self-inflicted - though I'll defend the thought process behind Mike Evans until the bitter end - while some Week 8 plays like Darrell Henderson, Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki provided good output, but just didn't get there as true "slate breakers".

It's repetitive to say every week that each NFL DFS slate is unique, but that is both true and what makes this so much fun! While Week 8 provided us with a slate environment that made building rosters a breeze, Week 9 is shaping up to be a more down-and-dirty affair.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 9. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 9 DFS Picks

Positional Overview: We're rarely faced with an overabundance of injuries at the QB position, but the position is a legit MASH unit in Week 9. As a result, this slate offers the most QB value that we've seen this season. The biggest story of the week is, of course, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers who is out due to COVID complications. We also have both Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold legitimately Questionable, with both the Texans and Saints in flux at the position. While many might try to take advantage of the perceived value, I'll actually lean strongly in the opposite direction by relying heavily on proven DFS commodities.

Josh Allen - BUF @ JAX ($8,200)

Listen, we’re all about thinking outside of the box in this article (see the Mike Evans writeup from last week if you don’t believe me) but sometimes the straightforward play is the correct play. I think that’s where Josh Allen - and really the QB position as a whole - lands this week, as he’s set to take on a struggling Jacksonville squad. He possesses one of the highest DFS ceilings in the NFL on a weekly basis and also comes with more than enough floor to justify his position-high price tag. 

In this spot against the Jags specifically, it’s tough to envision Allen truly “failing”. Jacksonville ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and is fresh off a Week 8 outing in which they were torched by Geno Smith. Buffalo has thrown the ball at just over a 61% clip over their last three games and should be more than willing to take the path of least resistance against this pass-funnel Jags defense.

Lamar Jackson - MIN @ BAL ($7,300)

It might sound weird to say my favorite QB salary saver on a slate that's packed with value at the position is one that's priced at $7.3k, but that's been my personal inner dialogue this week. Lamar Jackson, with his elite combination of floor and ceiling, is simply too cheap. While it is tempting to save tons of salary at the position this week, Jackson - along with the aforementioned Allen - offers an upside that's quite simply out of the reach of any of the value QBs that many of your DFS opponents will be rostering. In addition to the obvious floor that his rushing ability creates - Jackson has attempted 76 rushes this season - the Ravens' QB is surprisingly near the top of the league in average Air Yards per game at 338.1 and actually leads the NFL in aDOT at 10.56.

DraftKings Running Backs - Week 9 DFS Picks

Positional Overview: Week 8 offered a veritable cornucopia of mid-priced RB options. Unfortunately, Week 9 isn't as pretty. Much like at the QB spot, I'll look to grab RBs that have a reliable combination of DFS floor and ceiling and try to save salary at other positions.

Austin Ekeler - LAC @ PHI ($7,900)

It's likely convoluted and wishful thinking to hope that De'Andre Swift's complete bust as the chalk against Philadelphia last week will somehow scare people away from Austin Ekeler. Ownership be damned, I'll still be in on Ekeler, L.A.'s Swiss-Army-Knife back.

This matchup against Philly is one to target, as the Eagles are allowing the second-most DK Points per game to the RB position on average...a massive 31.3. Philly also ranks dead last in the NFL in catch rate allowed to opposing RBs at an 87.1% clip. Sure, we'd like to see the Chargers simply hand the ball to Ekeler a little bit more, but he's still averaging a very healthy 18.3 total opportunities this season when we factor in his role in the passing game and he's had 20 or more opportunities in three of L.A.'s last four.

Ezekiel Elliott - DEN @ DAL ($7,000)

I was pleasantly surprised to open up the DraftKings app and find Ezekiel Elliott still planted at $7k. Zeke’s numbers over Dallas’ last two haven’t really forced DK to bump his price up, but the underlying usage makes $7k feel like a steal, as he’s had a combined 48 total opportunities over his last two games. 

The matchup against Denver might appear to be tough at first glance, but this is a Broncos unit that just traded their best player earlier in the week and - despite playing the mother of all cupcake schedules - has just middling numbers against the RB position, allowing 4.23 yards per carry & 5.55 yards per target to opposing backs.

DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 9 DFS Picks

Positional Overview: Some really unique GPP pivot opportunities at the WR position this week, especially when it comes to teammates. While last week's "pivot from Chris Godwin to Mike Evans" move went over about like the Hindenburg, I maintain the line of thinking was the correct one in GPP formats. Weirdly, Week 9 offers several similar "teammate vs. teammate" scenarios, as there are currently multiple WRs that are expected to garner exponential ownership in comparison to their higher upside pass-catching teammates. We'll focus on some of those contrarian plays in this week's article, because remember, we're trying to implement strategies that will help us win large-field tournaments.

Ja'Marr Chase ($7,600) vs Tee Higgins ($5,300) - CLE @ CIN 

Make no mistake, I'm a huge fan of continuing to buy low on Tee Higgins, a player that I wrote up in this article last week. However, while I do believe that Higgins is both underpriced and due for a breakout game, a pivot to his Bengals teammate Ja'Marr Chase does offer an immense amount of leverage in GPPs, as the projected ownership between the two is worlds apart, with Higgins currently expected to garner around 22% ownership, while Chase is polling at just 7%, even though the rookie superstar is averaging just under 100 Air Yards per game with a healthy aDOT of 13.88. This Bengals dynamic duo is set to square off against a Cleveland Browns defense that funnels opponents to the air. The Browns rank third in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA but stand just 25th in the league against the pass.

Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600) vs Cole Beasley ($5,400) - BUF @ JAX  

Cole Beasley heads into this dreamy matchup against Jacksonville and slot corner, Tre Herndon, on an absolute tear. He's recorded back-to-back outings of 20+ DK Points and after being targeted a combined four times in Weeks 4 & 5, Beasley has received a massive 24 combined looks over Buffalo's last two. However, his recent production will likely be reflected with noticeably increased ownership this week.

While Beasley comes into Week 9 with his arrow pointing up, his teammate, Emmanuel Sanders, is coming off a literal goose egg in Week 8. There's reason to believe last week's outing against Miami is simply an outlier, as Sanders had been targeted at least five times and recorded at least 48 yards in all six of Buffalo's previous games. He should garner a fraction of the ownership of the $200-cheaper Beasley, despite having the higher DFS ceiling. Sanders' 17.89 aDOT ranks near the top of the NFL among regular starters, while Beasley's minuscule aDOT of 4.86 caps his upside to a certain degree. This works out beautifully for GPPs, as we can get our hands on tons of leverage simply by pivoting from Beasley to Sanders - the player with the higher DFS ceiling - for just $200 more in salary.

Hunter Renfrow ($4,800) vs Zay Jones ($3,000) - LV @ NYG

If you are reading this article you are probably well aware of the Henry Ruggs situation, so there's no need to dive into that here. From a football standpoint, the Raiders are now without their primary downfield threat. Obviously, DFS players want to take advantage of this situation, but I think they might be going about it in the wrong way.

It appears as though folks are flocking to Las Vegas receiver Hunter Renfrow in an attempt to capitalize on Ruggs' absence, as he's currently projected to be one of, if not the highest-owned WRs on the Week 9 slate. While I'm sure that Renfrow will probably gain a few more targets with Ruggs off the field, I don't know that the small jump in volume justifies him coming in at 20%+ owned, as he's a slot-based, possession-type receiver that was constantly on the field with Ruggs. Basically...I don't expect Renfrow's role to change all that much (the same could be said of Bryan Edwards, who has constantly been on the field with Renfrow & Ruggs in three-receiver sets this season. Full disclosure: I would actually prefer Edwards over Renfrow in GPPs as well).

If we're looking for more of a direct replacement for the Ruggs' role in this offense, I suspect it will likely be Zay Jones, the Buffalo castoff that hasn't seen much action with the Raiders this season. When Jones has been on the field, his role has been that of a deep threat. His aDOT of 13.88 is reflective of Ruggs' 16.18 mark (Renfrow's aDOT is a paltry 6.33), which leads me to believe he'll inherit the downfield role for the Raiders.

Even if we are guessing correctly and Jones is the closest thing to a direct replacement for Ruggs, it doesn't mean he will be successful (Ruggs himself often wasn't successful in this highly-volatile role). But...at the stone minimum WR price point of $3k and at basically no ownership, I'm willing to gamble in GPPs while others will clog their lineups with Renfrow, a player who is a steady producer but comes limited DFS upside.

DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 9 DFS Picks

Positional Overview: The seemingly always-tough TE position is once again a mess, despite all of the NFL's elite TE's being available to us on this slate. Travis Kelce has been in a rut in a surprisingly-disjointed Chiefs offense, Kyle Pitts struggled without Calvin Ridley on the field last week, and George Kittle will be making his first start since an extended stay on IR.

Darren Waller - LV @ NYG ($6,200) 

We spent a lot of time talking about Raiders at the WR position. Perhaps the most straightforward way to capitalize on the Las Vegas situation is to simply lock in Darren Waller, a player that's a TE in name only and is their de facto top pass catcher. Waller has had two weeks to recover from an ankle injury that forced him to miss a Week 7 tilt against the Eagles (Las Vegas was on a bye in Week 8) and should be set to resume his role as the primary option in this passing attack. He's garnered a 20.2% target share in this offense to this point and ranks near the top of the league in TE targets and aDOT. After dropping a massive 29.5 DK Points in the season opener, Waller's subsequent production might feel disappointing, but we must keep in mind that he carries one of the highest week-in-week-out ceilings at the TE position and that potential upside should only be improved by Ruggs' absence.

Mike Gesicki - HOU @ MIA ($4,900)

With all the stars out at the TE position this week, there's a chance that Mike Gesicki goes overlooked in the mid-range. His $4.9k price tag feels too cheap for the type of usage that he's consistently seeing in this Miami offense. Gesicki's aDOT of 9.33 places him with the marquee names at the TE position and his team Air Yards share of 25.6% trails only Kyle Pitts. In addition to usage that we can count on, the Penn State alum draws a smash matchup against a Houston Texans defense that is devoid of both talent and motivation. The Texans are relinquishing a massive average of 16.7 DK Points per game to opposing TEs and I look for Gesicki to easily outperform his price tag in this spot.

Albert Okwuegbunam - DEN @ DAL ($2,600)

A little bonus play at the TE position this week, this one will hinge on a couple of factors...Denver's Noah Fant tested positive for COVID-19 Tuesday and is currently working his way through the protocol. There's a chance he could still be cleared to play this week against Dallas. Fant's back-up, Albert Okwuegbunam is also fighting what's believed to be a minor knee issue and was limited in practice earlier this week, so this is a situation that we will need to keep an eye on as we progress to Sunday.

If Fant isn't cleared to return and if Albert O's knee is fine, I won't hesitate to save some salary here. Okwuegbunam is a physical phenom (6'5", 258lbs with a 4.49 40 time) that's seen limited time due to being planted behind Fant on the depth chart. He has caught 11 of his 12 targets and carries an aDOT of 7.90 - though it's an admittedly tiny sample size. However, the Broncos should be forced to throw in this one and he's an athletic player at a position Dallas has struggled to defend, as the Cowboys are allowing an average of just over nine yards per target to opposing TEs.

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