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Jamie's top DraftKings NBA DFS picks for today, Monday, 12/30/24. His favorite daily fantasy basketball lineup sleepers and value picks for DraftKings DFS.
I hope this Monday's article finds you with at least one Fantasy Football championship under your belt, and also some extra money from DFS! There was a lot of scoring in the NFL yesterday, but today we turn our attention back to the NBA as we try to close out 2024 with some cash.
There are seven games to tackle tonight, and some look VERY fantasy-friendly. Charlotte has already ruled out their top two players, and there are some other relevant questionable tags on the slate as well. With three late games (10 PM EST), we'll need to be very careful how build to maintain leverage on the field.
Be sure to join us in the RotoBaller Discord! We're helping you build cash and GPP lineups and will continue to post and analyze updates even after the 7 PM lock. This could be important tonight with the three 1o PM games, so check us out! Good luck, and Happy New Year!
DraftKings NBA DFS Core Picks
Nikola Jokic, DEN - C ($12,000)
The big man is going to cost you, but he's worth it on this slate. There are three players priced at $10k or over, and two of those (Luka Doncic and LaMelo Ball) aren't going to play. This makes the opportunity cost for Nikola Jokic unique, and you should explore every opportunity to get him into your lineups.
The Denver-Utah game has a 6.5-point spread and a 240.5-point O/U, so fantasy points will abound. Jokic is averaging nearly a triple-double on a 30.3% usage rate, and is playing heavy minutes. His 37.1 MPG is fourth in the NBA, and the matchup could not get much better.
Utah is ninth in pace and is dead last in defensive efficiency (and getting worse every game). Jokic has DK totals of 63 and 59 against the Jazz this year, and both games were well under his minutes average. The sky's the limit, and Jokic even gets a modest rebounding boost with Aaron Gordon off the court.
Kyrie Irving, DAL - PG/SG ($8,900)
The "Doncic is out" boost hasn't happened as much as we'd have hoped for Kyrie Irving this year, but that's only really affecting his GPP upside. Irving remains a rock-solid cash play at a sub-$9k price tag.
Over his last three games, Kyrie has averaged 38.5 MPG while hoisting up 74 shots in that span. Sacramento has begun to crater defensively, ranking 27th overall over the last ten games (and has fallen to 17th on the season). He flashed his scoring upside last game against Portland, putting 46 points on the board.
I'd be careful with this play in tournaments with P.J. Washington back, but Irving's cash floor is terrific.
Others Under Consideration: Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK - C ($9,800), Damontas Sabonis, SAC - C ($9,300), James Harden, LAC - PG ($9,100), Jalen Brunson, NYK - PG ($8,400)
DraftKings NBA DFS Tournament Pivots
Joel Embiid, PHI - C ($9,500)
Death, taxes, and a questionable tag for Joel Embiid. I think this is a battle we'll be fighting all season with him, but it also keeps Embiid as one of the prime GPP targets on this slate. Portland is seventh in pace, 27th in defensive efficiency, and 21st in rebounding rate.
Based on the other centers on this slate, Embiid will likely be overlooked. The masses will up to Jokic or prefer to play Karl-Anthony Towns or Damontas Sabonis in a similar price range. This will keep Embiid's ownership muted, and he always has the upside to break the slate.
Take advantage of the $9,500 price tag. Remember that in his MVP season, his price tag was well over $11k more often than not. It's tricky that he's playing the late game, but luckily there are other contests at that time. If Embiid is out, you can put in Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox, Stephen Curry, or Kyrie Irving.
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DraftKings NBA DFS Value Picks
Mikal Bridges, NYK - SG/SF ($6,200)
Mikal Bridges was in my article last Monday, and nothing has changed since then. He continues to play the heaviest minutes in the league (an amazing 39.2 MPG), yet his price tag on DraftKings hasn't moved. Over the past five games, Bridges has played 45, 41, 43, 44, and 47 minutes. Wow.
The Knicks will play their second game in a row in Washington, and the Wizards are a prime attack point for DFS. On the season they're third in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, and Bridges' scoring has been spiking in the month of December.
Jalen Brunson is questionable for this one, and his potential absence would open up tons of usage for the remaining Knicks. Of course, Brunson was questionable for the last game too, and responded by popping off for 55 real points (72 DK points). The 11.5-point spread isn't a worry, as the Knicks' starters always play deep into the game.
Even if Bridges is the third (or fourth) usage option on the team, his minutes floor is one you can always count on for cash, and his recent scoring binge gives him GPP upside as well.
Mark Williams, CHA - C ($5,300)
Where can I sign the petition to get Mark Williams more minutes for Charlotte? The guy does nothing but produce, yet his minutes have been frustratingly in the teens for most of his time this season. There's hope, though, as Williams has played 26 and 22 minutes in the last two games.
The Bulls are a tremendous target for DFS, as they rank second in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. They also have given up BY FAR the highest at-rim frequency, which is where Williams lives. Even in his limited time, Williams has been an elite producer, averaging 1.51 FPPM.
LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are both set to miss tonight. While their positions don't open up more center minutes, they are leaving behind a combined 66.9% usage rate which has to be picked up by SOMEONE.
Vasilije Micic, CHA - PG/SG ($4,600)
Vasilije Micic is a boring play but is almost a must for cash if you wish to play Jokic at $12k. His 0.81 FPPM isn't going to break the GPP slate, but he's also not priced for Ball and Miller being out. Micic should start and play 30 minutes in a prime environment, and he's replacing the league leader in usage rate (Ball - 39%).
Charlotte values are going to be the name of the game tonight, and Micic will be chalky. I don't mind coming in under the field in tournaments, but you'll need a cheap play like this in cash.
Others Under Consideration: Miles Bridges, CHA - PF ($7,300), Josh Hart, NYK - SF/PF ($6,800), Russell Westbrook, DEN - PG ($6,300), Scoot Henderson, POR - PG ($5,000), Josh Green, CHA - SF/PF ($4,500), Brice Sensabaugh, UTA - SF/PF ($3,900), Miles McBride, NYK - PG/SG ($3,800)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stack
Nuggets at Jazz (240.5 O/U)
This is the clear winner as far as stacks go, but you'll have to get cute if Nikola Jokic is part of your stack ideas. With John Collins likely to sit again, some cheap Jazz players are stackable alongside Jokic. Brice Sensabaugh is only $3,900 and played 25 minutes last game, and Cody Williams ($3,200) is playing minutes in the 20s right now as well.
Another path is to do non-Jokic stacks, which would center around Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, and the more expensive Jazz players (Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen). This would require a bit more of a leap of faith given Jokic's massive role, but it's a viable route to take.
My Favorite NBA DFS Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite OVERALL play on the slate: Nikola Jokic
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Nikola Jokic
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Joel Embiid
- My favorite VALUE play: Mikal Bridges
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