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Jon's NBA DFS projections model for DraftKings on 11/3/21. His top value plays, best matchups, minute gainers and more for DraftKings daily fantasy basketball.
We have a massive 12-game slate on tap on this lovely Wednesday night, which presents quite a challenge for DFS players. There is a lot to wrap your head around on big slates like this, which can be daunting.
The good thing about big slates is it provides no shortage of angles to attack. There are sure to be several key players out tonight, which will make for tons of players that end up being severely underpriced for their projection. The field you're playing against these days is quite tough, so you really need to embrace projections and be ready to adjust quickly and late.
What I offer here are the early-day results of my DraftKings data model and dynamic tables that are updated throughout the day.
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NBA DFS: Best Team Matchups
#1 New Orleans Pelican vs. Sacramento Kings
The Kings come into tonight having allowed the fourth most Draftings points per game in the league. They have allowed the most field goal attempts, the second most free throw attempts, and the second-most total points scored per game as well. That puts the Pelicans in a good spot here, although it should be noted that the Pels find themselves on the second game in a back-to-back situation. Brandon Ingram has missed the last couple games for his team, so he should have fresh legs if he's fully healthy, making him an interesting tournament play in this spot. Ingram isn't second on the team in DraftKings points scored per minute (1.15) and his 30.5% usage rate leads the team. Jonas Valanciunas (1.36), Devonte' Graham (1.01), and Josh Hart (1.00) are the only other Pelicans with rates above one.
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game, the third-most total points per game, and the second-most assists per game. They have been good on the glass, allowing the fourth-fewest rebounds per game in the league. That suggests this is a good spot for Nuggets facilitators, which is just fine news for Nikola Jokic who leads his team in points (scoring 28.2 points per 36 minutes), rebounds (16.2 per 36 MP), and assists (6.8 per 36). The rest of the Nuggets are a bit tougher to trust for DFS purposes because of how much of the offense flows through the big man, but the Grizzlies open up a little bit more ceiling for the entire team.
#3 Golden State Warriors vs. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are fifth in the league in DraftKings points allowed per game, giving up the most points per game at 113.5. They have given up the seventh-most three-point attempts per game, which is mighty good news for the very expensive Stephen Curry. Curry has a commanding share of his team's DraftKings points (21.8%), and he is followed by Draymond Green (14.2%), Andrew Wiggins (11.5), and Jordan Poole (10.6%). Curry is the ceiling play, but those other three names provide a decent floor to go with a slightly elevated ceiling in this spot.
NBA DFS: Cold Shooters
Now let's move over to the cold shooters report. For this, I compare every player with at least 20 shot attempts in their last three games and compare their field goal percentage in those three games with their season average. The angle here is to find guys shooting the ball a bunch but just on the wrong end of some variance from the floor. The DraftKings algorithm will often drop the price on these kinds of players as their poor shooting performance affects their fantasy outputs. This is a great way to get an edge on the field as we buy low on guys that have just been experiencing some bad luck lately. Here' the report:
Patty Mills leads the way shooting 29% on his 21 attempts. He has seen his drop to $4,100 today, slowly falling from his season-high $4,700 that we saw on October 25th. He's a guy that depends a lot on making his three-point attempts, making him a shaky cash play, but the price is right.
Collin Sexton started the year at $8,300 and now he's the whole way down to $6,300. He's taken a huge total of 33 shots over his last three games but made just 11 of them, well down from his career 46% field goal percentage. Additionally, he has made just one of his 13 three-point attempts over his last four games.
Devonte' Graham also makes for an intriguing play if Brandon Ingram remains out tonight. He has been ice cold from the field but gets a ton of usage when Ingram isn't on the floor. In these few games without Ingram, Graham has a 1.08 DraftKings points scored per minute rate and is taking 19.6 field goal attempts per 36 minutes played.
NBA DFS: Minutes Gainers
Minutes equal money in the game of NBA DFS. Here's a look at today's biggest minutes gainers based on projections.
It's very early in the day when I'm publishing the first draft of this, and there are plenty of injury news updates to go. For right now, the big names that are out ar D'Angelo Russell (Minnesota), Tobias Harris (Philadelphia), and Scottie Barnes (Toronto). For right now you'll see names from those teams near the top of the leaderboard here, but there is sure to be lots of change throughout the day. Keep checking back, I will update this table every few hours.
NBA DFS: Salary Drops
Eric Bledsoe has been miserable from the field lately but also isn't playing as many minutes as we may have expected at the beginning of the year. He's a fine play, but I'm not overly excited about him even at $4,400. The guy that really pops is Jaren Jackson Jr., who has also been insanely cold from the field (31% from the field since 10/26), but also is coming off a dud game because of foul trouble. If he stays out of foul trouble and shoots well from the field tonight, he will really murder his salary tonight.
We're also seeing a bit of a discount on Caris LeVert, who has been slowly ramping up after missing the beginning of the year to injury. He has played two games, playing 16 minutes in the first and then 24 minutes in his last game (November 1st). He has been super active when on the floor, scoring a really high 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in that time. He has shot the ball at a pace of 26.6 attempts per 36 minutes while adding 8.3 assists per 36 and nine three-point attempts per 36. If you think he'll push towards 30 minutes, he's a smash play.
Now let's check out the top values table. Here I will show off the top 25 projected players in terms of salary value.
I would absolutely not recommend just building a lineup with the top names on that list. You need to be considering the ceiling here very seriously, especially on a big slate. Svi Mykhailiuk is the top projected player right now, but his 16.2% usage rate on the year suggests the ceiling is somewhat limited. You should really focus on the players that are projecting well that also have high usage rates and have an obvious massive ceiling. You really want more from your $4,000 player than 24 points for a 6x return, you should be shooting more for 8-10x from these cheap guys.
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