X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings NBA DFS Data Insights (11/3/21): Top Values, Best Matchups, Minute Gainers

Jon's NBA DFS projections model for DraftKings on 11/3/21. His top value plays, best matchups, minute gainers and more for DraftKings daily fantasy basketball.

We have a massive 12-game slate on tap on this lovely Wednesday night, which presents quite a challenge for DFS players. There is a lot to wrap your head around on big slates like this, which can be daunting.

The good thing about big slates is it provides no shortage of angles to attack. There are sure to be several key players out tonight, which will make for tons of players that end up being severely underpriced for their projection. The field you're playing against these days is quite tough, so you really need to embrace projections and be ready to adjust quickly and late.

What I offer here are the early-day results of my DraftKings data model and dynamic tables that are updated throughout the day.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

I also have published a Tableau dashboard with the data model's projections (there are two different models on there, you'll see them on the first two tabs, it's always good to have multiple models to compare), along with lots of other interesting tabs for you to find stats and insights. You can find that here. If you have any questions you can reach out to me on Twitter directly, my DMs are wide open. Enough jabbering, let's get into the data model!

 

NBA DFS: Best Team Matchups

#1 New Orleans Pelican vs. Sacramento Kings

The Kings come into tonight having allowed the fourth most Draftings points per game in the league. They have allowed the most field goal attempts, the second most free throw attempts, and the second-most total points scored per game as well. That puts the Pelicans in a good spot here, although it should be noted that the Pels find themselves on the second game in a back-to-back situation. Brandon Ingram has missed the last couple games for his team, so he should have fresh legs if he's fully healthy, making him an interesting tournament play in this spot. Ingram isn't second on the team in DraftKings points scored per minute (1.15) and his 30.5% usage rate leads the team. Jonas Valanciunas (1.36), Devonte' Graham (1.01), and Josh Hart (1.00) are the only other Pelicans with rates above one.

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game, the third-most total points per game, and the second-most assists per game. They have been good on the glass, allowing the fourth-fewest rebounds per game in the league. That suggests this is a good spot for Nuggets facilitators, which is just fine news for Nikola Jokic who leads his team in points (scoring 28.2 points per 36 minutes), rebounds (16.2 per 36 MP), and assists (6.8 per 36). The rest of the Nuggets are a bit tougher to trust for DFS purposes because of how much of the offense flows through the big man, but the Grizzlies open up a little bit more ceiling for the entire team.

#3 Golden State Warriors vs. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are fifth in the league in DraftKings points allowed per game, giving up the most points per game at 113.5. They have given up the seventh-most three-point attempts per game, which is mighty good news for the very expensive Stephen Curry. Curry has a commanding share of his team's DraftKings points (21.8%), and he is followed by Draymond Green (14.2%), Andrew Wiggins (11.5), and Jordan Poole (10.6%). Curry is the ceiling play, but those other three names provide a decent floor to go with a slightly elevated ceiling in this spot.

 

NBA DFS: Cold Shooters

Now let's move over to the cold shooters report. For this, I compare every player with at least 20 shot attempts in their last three games and compare their field goal percentage in those three games with their season average. The angle here is to find guys shooting the ball a bunch but just on the wrong end of some variance from the floor. The DraftKings algorithm will often drop the price on these kinds of players as their poor shooting performance affects their fantasy outputs. This is a great way to get an edge on the field as we buy low on guys that have just been experiencing some bad luck lately. Here' the report:

Patty Mills leads the way shooting 29% on his 21 attempts. He has seen his drop to $4,100 today, slowly falling from his season-high $4,700 that we saw on October 25th. He's a guy that depends a lot on making his three-point attempts, making him a shaky cash play, but the price is right.

Collin Sexton started the year at $8,300 and now he's the whole way down to $6,300. He's taken a huge total of 33 shots over his last three games but made just 11 of them, well down from his career 46% field goal percentage. Additionally, he has made just one of his 13 three-point attempts over his last four games.

Devonte' Graham also makes for an intriguing play if Brandon Ingram remains out tonight. He has been ice cold from the field but gets a ton of usage when Ingram isn't on the floor. In these few games without Ingram, Graham has a 1.08 DraftKings points scored per minute rate and is taking 19.6 field goal attempts per 36 minutes played.

 

NBA DFS: Minutes Gainers

Minutes equal money in the game of NBA DFS. Here's a look at today's biggest minutes gainers based on projections.

It's very early in the day when I'm publishing the first draft of this, and there are plenty of injury news updates to go. For right now, the big names that are out ar D'Angelo Russell (Minnesota), Tobias Harris (Philadelphia), and Scottie Barnes (Toronto). For right now you'll see names from those teams near the top of the leaderboard here, but there is sure to be lots of change throughout the day. Keep checking back, I will update this table every few hours.

 

NBA DFS: Salary Drops

Eric Bledsoe has been miserable from the field lately but also isn't playing as many minutes as we may have expected at the beginning of the year. He's a fine play, but I'm not overly excited about him even at $4,400. The guy that really pops is Jaren Jackson Jr., who has also been insanely cold from the field (31% from the field since 10/26), but also is coming off a dud game because of foul trouble. If he stays out of foul trouble and shoots well from the field tonight, he will really murder his salary tonight.

We're also seeing a bit of a discount on Caris LeVert, who has been slowly ramping up after missing the beginning of the year to injury. He has played two games, playing 16 minutes in the first and then 24 minutes in his last game (November 1st). He has been super active when on the floor, scoring a really high 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in that time. He has shot the ball at a pace of 26.6 attempts per 36 minutes while adding 8.3 assists per 36 and nine three-point attempts per 36. If you think he'll push towards 30 minutes, he's a smash play.

Now let's check out the top values table. Here I will show off the top 25 projected players in terms of salary value.

 

I would absolutely not recommend just building a lineup with the top names on that list. You need to be considering the ceiling here very seriously, especially on a big slate. Svi Mykhailiuk is the top projected player right now, but his 16.2% usage rate on the year suggests the ceiling is somewhat limited. You should really focus on the players that are projecting well that also have high usage rates and have an obvious massive ceiling. You really want more from your $4,000 player than 24 points for a 6x return, you should be shooting more for 8-10x from these cheap guys.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF