RADIO
We have nearly a month of basketball in the books, which means it's about time that the projection models really start humming. Every team has played at least 12 games, and we've even seen a lot of teams play without their main players as well which gives us insight on how usage changes in certain situations.
That is the case tonight. As of right now, we have data on every team that is missing a significant player when that player misses. This gives us a pretty good edge on the field when we're playing against players not utilizing a projection model. Let's go into the slate here and build a winner!
NBA DFS: Best Team Matchups
Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have given up the third-most fantasy points per game this year, giving up 241 DraftKings points for every 240 minutes they play (this is equal to a full game, 48 minutes times five players). They allowed the second-most points and the most assists, making guards and facilitators attractive options against this Grizzlies defense. My model has the Rockets going for 225 DraftKings points, 13.7 above their season average.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets
The other side of this game is pretty juicy as well. The Rockets have given up the second-most DraftKings points per game at 240. They are in the bottom five in field goal attempts, three-point attempts, and points scored per game. The model is giving the Grizzlies 248.7 DraftKings points tonight, 13.2 ahead of their season average.
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Suns also come in projecting to score a dozen more DraftKings points tonight than their season average tonight. The Timberwolves are sixth-worst in the league in DraftKings points allowed per game at 234. They have been torched on the glass, allowing 50.1 rebounds per game to lead the league by a significant mark.
NBA DFS: Significant Missing Players
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers: This is basically a moot point because he's been out for so long. After a couple games of a guy being out, the prices adjust to account for it - leaving us without an edge to be had. You can still go to Anthony Davis at a pretty affordable tag here. He has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in games without LeBron while taking 20.7 and snatching a dozen rebounds per 36 minutes played.
Nikola Vucevic, Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are the beneficiaries here, both seeing boosts in their usage rates with Vucevic out. In two games without their big man, DeRozan has taken 13 and 16 shots, while LaVine has pulled up 17 and 27 times. This is the second half of a back-to-back for the Bulls, but we saw what DDR and LaVine can do together last night without Vucevic, as they scored 50.1 and 43 DraftKings points respectively. Neither of them has seen a price increase over these last few days without Vucevic either - making them interesting so long as you're not afraid of the back-to-back.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards: Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged an absurd 1.62 DraftKings points per minute in two games without Beal in the lineup. In those two games he has scored 57.5 and 49.25 DraftKings points while taking 24 and 18 shots. The other main beneficiary is Kyle Kuzma, who took 17 and 14 shots in those two games.
Kelly Olynyk, Detroit Pistons: Isaiah Stewart has played 24 and 32 minutes in two games without Olynyk, scoring a disappointing 14 DraftKings points in that first game before going off for 33 in the second. His price has risen to $5,000 to account for this news, so he is far from a "must-play" tonight - but the upside is definitely there for the active big man. If he can get to 30 minutes it's pretty unlikely that you'll be disappointed with his output, but 30 minutes is no guarantee here.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics: This is old news now which has seen the prices adjust, but Jayson Tatum has taken no fewer than 19 shots in games without Jaylen, but has had just one game above 50% shooting from the field there. That gives us a massive ceiling on a guy that is priced at just $9,800. He checks in with a projection of 21.9 shot attempts tonight, second on the model behind the aforementioned Zach LaVine.
Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: Ricky Rubio's price has risen here after two games without Sexton in the books, but he is still quite affordable at $6,000. In three games without Sexton, Rubio has played 28, 27, and 33 minutes while shooting the ball 15, 9 and 17 times and scoring 37, 29, and 35 DraftKings points. That will work at $6,000 just fine - and he does still possess triple-double upside.
Now let's move over to the cold shooters' report. For this, I compare every player with at least 20 shot attempts in their last three games and compare their field goal percentage in those three games with their season average. The angle here is to find guys shooting the ball a bunch but just on the wrong end of some variance from the floor. The DraftKings algorithm will often drop the price on these kinds of players as their poor shooting performance affects their fantasy outputs. This is a great way to get an edge on the field as we buy low on guys that have just been experiencing some bad luck lately. Here is the report:
There is some tournament appeal to Caldwell-Pope here with Bradley Beal on the shelf. He has canned just six of his 27 shots in his last three games, leaving his price way down at $4,000. I am projecting him for 10 shots tonight, so a 20 point night is well within reach. RJ Barrett is the next most-interesting cold shooter, launching more than 12 shots per game in his last three but shooting just 27% from the field. I have him down for 14 field goal attempts at just $5,900, giving him the third-highest shot attempt projection for players priced below $6,000 (Cade Cunningham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker beat him out).
NBA DFS: Minutes Gainers
Minutes equal money in the game of NBA DFS. Here's a look at today's biggest minutes gainers based on projections.
NBA DFS: Salary Drops
We see Barrett re-appearing here, making him a very interesting play since we already know his declined performance lately has been due to cold shooting. You can get a pretty nice discount on him today. Jalen Suggs has also seen his price flat-line to $4,000 after being up at $5,400 earlier this month. The rookie hasn't played 30 minutes since November 1st, which hurts quite a bit, but he has still put up 14, 14, 11, 10, 8, and 10 shots in his last six games. He doesn't do much in terms of peripheral stats, so that keeps his floor/ceiling combination quite low, but he does not seem like a guy that will be this cheap very often this year.
Here are the top value projections for tonight. This table will be updated throughout the day.
Horton-Tucker made his season debut last night and played 27 minutes. He took 14 shots in those minutes and scored 27 DraftKings points. The reason for his late season debut was thumb surgery, which isn't the typical injury that you might want to ease your player back into after recovering from, so there's a good chance we see a repeat performance here in terms of 25+ minutes played. The Lakers' usage will be dominated by Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, make no mistake, and Horton-Tucker's lack of peripherals in that game (four rebounds, one assist) are concerning, but for a stone-minimum price you could do a lot worse.
Alex Caruso also continues to project well, but his 0.82 DraftKings points per minute rate leaves a lot to be desired in terms of the ceiling. That number hasn't improved at all with Vucevic out of the lineup either, so I probably will pass on Caruso here to focus on guys with higher ceilings. McGee is also popping up on the model without Deandre Ayton, but his maximum minutes played in games without Ayton is just 24.5, and that was last night, so there is more downside than upside here despite the solid matchup that we mentioned at the beginning of the post.
The 1.80 DraftKings points per minute rate that Nikola Jokic has posted this year is the highest in the league by a good margin (Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in second at 1.68, and nobody else is above 1.55). That makes him the premiere play every night, although it's very easy to disappoint when you're priced near $12,000. If you have oodles of cash to spend, he's your guy. In terms of price-considered studs, the model's top plays are Anthony Davis, Trae Young, DeMar DeRozan, Chris Paul, and Zach LaVine.
Give Us Your Top Plays Already!
I tend to take a more high-level, data-oriented approach to this article. And I understand some people like that, but more likely you're just here looking for the top plays. I'll try to summarize that here, but these are likely to change throughout the day - so please follow me on Twitter and I'll send out those updates. For right now, here are the data model's favorite plays (I do some editing myself here to get rid of guys with floors and/or ceilings that are just too low):
Cheap ($4,500 and below): Talen Horton-Tucker, Alex Caruso, Patrick Beverley, Cedi Osman, Kevin Huerter
Mid-Range ($4,600 - $7,000): Ricky Rubio, Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, Kyle Kuzma, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Desmond Bane
Expensive ($7,000+): DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Spencer Dinwiddie, Chris Paul, Kristaps Porzingis, D'Angelo Russell, Evan Mobley, Nikola Jokic
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