RADIO
Two submissions and three decisions in the latest UFC event last Saturday weren't that bad of an appointment. Only two of those decisions came in the main event and the one before it, watering down the adrenaline a bit. For a Fight Night/Vegas card, though, we can't really ask for much more, and that is not even discussing the fact that main-eventer Kevin Holland was fighting on a few days notice and after doing so for the second time in a span of three weeks racking up two losses while at it.
This weekend, back in Vegas for the 24th card held in the Apex, stakes will be a bit higher with Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum headlining Saturday's meeting. Both had their shots at the gold, but both dropped their chances against Adesanya. At least Whittaker raised the banner when he defeated Yoel Romero back in 2017, I guess. Other than this contender-bout we'll get to watch a top-10 FW in Jeremy Stephens and living legend Andrei Arlovski.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 24: Whittaker vs. Gastelum on 04/17/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Robert Whittaker, $9100 - vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Whittaker's run toward a shot for the (interim) MW title was nearly impeccable: Robert just dropped a couple of fights on his way there (both of them in 2013 and 2014) but other than that he strung seven wins prior to the title fight, and went on to defeat Yoel Romero twice. After that, though, Adesanya sent him home with an L in a KO-fight after which Whittaker was able to rebound with two consecutive Ws, the last one last taking place last October.
Gastelum, on the contrary, had a bouncier resume when he got to face Adesanya (another L, just in case) and it took Gastelum two more losses before getting back to the W column in his last one, a win over Ian Heinisch this past February. He better step up and string a couple of Ws, or Gastelum's log is going to start looking bad for real and painting a murky and declining picture of him going forward.
All things considered, this looks like Whitt's fight to lose. He has a massive edge on striking, comes with a "perfect" record (I mean, who the hell can defeat Adesanya...) and although his ground game isn't as good as Kevin's it is not that Gastelum is a takedown god or has ever submitted anyone (he has, but not since 2014 though). Gastelum has never been KO'd but I think there is a real chance it happens this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jeremy Stephens, $8400 - vs. Drakkar Klose
Although Stephens and Klose are just separated in age by one year, their experience fighting under the UFC banner can't be more distanced. Stephens stepped into the Octagon for the first time in May of 2007 while it took Klose 10 years (!!!) after that moment (UFC 71) to do so himself. Crazy stat that one.
Stephens has always been an up-and-down fighter, and has never been able to string a good-enough series of results as to make it to a title fight. The most consecutive wins he put together were three back in a 2017-18 span, but even then he's carrying a 2-4-1 record since the start of 2018 and hasn't won any of his last five bouts, including eating a couple of KOs (the latest one last May when we watched him for the last time).
Klose had gone to decision in all of his six fights since his debut in Jan. 2017 until he got dropped and KO'd over a year ago in Mar. 2020. He's 3-1 since the start of 2018, though, can do it on the mat, and he also throws more volume than Stephens these days. Jeremy is widely past his prime, and although Klose hasn't been anything remotely close to mighty inside the Octagon, he should at least be able to hand Stephens another L--his fifth in six fights and third consecutive.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Andrei Arlovski, $8500 - vs. Chase Sherman
Dude. Speaking of legends... Andrei Arlovski said a little over a month ago that he will keep on fighting until his hands fall off or something like that. This guy is 42 already, debuted in freaking Nov. 2000 in UFC 28 (!!!) and this will be his 35th bout in the promo. Bananas stuff. He lost his last one in February via submission, but he's looked relatively good of late with an even 3-3 record since the start of 2019.
Sherman, on the other hand, and while not being what you'd call a newbie, is still ways away from tying Arlovski's fighting record. Funnily enough, looking at Sherman's fight log you can kind of see traces of early-days Arlovski: a knockout machine--at both eating and handing them, that is. Sherman has KO'd 14 of the 15 foes he's defeated as a pro, and 2 of 3 since his UFC debut. He's also been KO'd three times himself, mind you. He's 1-2 since 2018 and has fought just once in the past two years and a half.
None of those two are going to go exchanging locks on the ground, that's for sure. It's been more than two years since Arlovski scored himself a takedown, and Sherman has yet to attempt one in the UFC. There will be flying fists, though. I don't see this one going the distance, and while Arlovski has lost his KO-power I'm seriously envisioning his first knockout W in 6 years (!!!) on this one. Could be wrong, but Sherman has lost 4-of-6 via KO and that alone makes me dubious of his chances.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Abdul Razak Alhassan, $9300 - vs. Jacob Malkoun
It'd be a little bit harsh to say Alhassan is fighting for his life here. Yes, he's 0-2 in his last two fights (both in 2020) after not taking part on any card since Sep. 2018 when he closed a three-win streak (all KOs). The problem for Alhassan is that he went to decision in the first of those last two and then got molly-KO'd in the last one last November in just 30 seconds by Khaos Williams. That hurt, literally and figuratively.
Jacob Malkoun... well, Jacob Malkoun has fought all of one time in the UFC (last October) lasting a measly 18 seconds standing before eating a KO by Phillip Hawes in UFC 254. That's all Malkoun has done under the UFC banner, folks. Don't let that bit of information fool you, though. While not having experience in the UFC, Malkoun jumped to the promo with a perfect 4-0 MMA-record prior to that and two of those Ws came via KO.
Alhassan showed us a mighty KO-prowess not long ago, and at the peak of his powers, he looked absolutely destructive. Malkoun is probably not going to put up another 18-second dud his second turn around, but even after a lowly Abdul (judging by his 2020 outings) I have to bet on the more experienced fighter for this one. Let's see Alhassan rebounding from those two Ls and getting back to the W column this Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ricardo Ramos, $8200 - vs. Bill Algeo
Ricardo Ramos fought as part of the UFC roster for the first time in 2017, and from that moment up to November 2019 he kept a rather good record that read 5-1, his lone loss coming via KO back on Feb. 2019. Then, in a new setup for him after bulking up to face Featherweight foes, he fought Lerone Murphy last July in the middle of the pandemic... and lasted all of 4:18 on his feet before getting KO'd the hell out of his toes.
Bill Algeo has a much shorter experience, with his two fights coming in the August-November span last year, both ending in decisions: a loss in his debut, and a win in his last time out. Those two were pretty similar, and removing the bonus points for the W in the latter they would have gone for virtually the same fantasy score. He landed a TD in each, connected in 50%+ of his SS, and it could be said Algeo was good-definitely-not-great in those.
Ramos is definitely the man of the mat here. He's landed 9-of-16 attempted TDs since 2017, is above a 50 percent success rate at that, and although his striking volume is smaller than Algeo he's proved to connect on a fairly consistent rate. The fact that he got knocked out in his first FW fight gives me pause, but I think Ramos should have enough to defeat Algeo on this one and be the better fantasy option on top of that this Saturday.
