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DraftKings UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal on 7/11/20. MMA DFS analysis to help build winning daily fantasy MMA lineups.
If you know something about UFC's head honcho Dana White, it is that he's a stubborn man. Back when COVID hit for the first time, he was determined to keep the promotion going, even getting to claim that he had secured an island to hold some fights. It didn't come to happen, but at least White and the UFC were able to schedule some events in the company's APEX Center in Las Vegas. Not bad, considering the times we're navigating.
Now we're in July, and after having gone through nine empty-arena events from Brazil to Jacksonville to Las Vegas, it is time to fly to Fight Island. Yes, it's happening. It's a little bit different than what we had dreamed of (it's Yas Island, just in case), but what it brings is monstrous fighters slated to face each other for multiple golden belts. Usman faces Masvidal in arguably the most-hyped bout ever. Aldo will try to get back to his reigning days against Yan. And Volkanovski will defend his chip against a hungry Holloway. Truth be told, we can't ask for more.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal on 7/11/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jorge Masvidal, $7,300 - vs. Kamaru Usman
I have written an extended preview of this title fight over here.
While it is clear that Usman is the favorite (I mean, he's the reigning welterweight champion), it makes no sense to have Masvidal on such a sweet discount as he's for this weekend's event. So yes, make Masvidal a must-have and lock him into your lineup no matter what.
Now, to the meat of this thing. Usman is a beast. We all know that. Kamaru can both strike hard and bring the fight to the mat and excel on the ground. He's just a complete fighter, no discussion about it, as his impeccable 9-0 record shows. It wouldn't be hard to see him land over 100 strikes and attempt north of 200. The same goes for his takedowns, where you can easily expect him to succeed at least once while going for multiple. Masvidal, on the other hand, relies mostly on his hitting prowess while leaving the grappling aside. He doubles Usman in landed strikes per minute and attempts virtually 1.5x times as many. Oh, and if you haven't heard about it, he's a killer with three KOs in his three fights, all in 2019.
This has everything to turn into a full-time bout going the distance if Usman plays it as he should. Masvidal needs to go for the kill and avoid the ground and being taken down at all costs. This is not a heavyweight fight, but any of these two can finish the other one in the blink of an eye. Let's bet on another cheap Masvidal for this one if only because of the discount compared to Usman's salary. The upside is just too high.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Max Holloway, $7,100 - vs. Alexander Volkanovski
I have written an extended preview of this title fight over here.
Second of the title fights scheduled to take place on Fight Island. This is any fan's dream come true, and there is still another one to analyze! Starting at the beginning, though, this one will pit current champion and undefeated Volkanovski versus once-great (not long ago) Holloway. Ah, our beloved recency bias.
Look, while no one can take anything from Volkanovski's staggering run in the UFC (8-0 and counting), Holloway won the title back in 2016 versus Anthony Pettis, defended it four consecutive times, and only dropped it to Volkanovski this past December. His only other loss since 2013 (vs. Conor McGregor) came against Dustin Poirier when he bulked up and tried his luck at the interim lightweight title. Again, Holloway is 14-2 since 2014 and 14-1 in the featherweight division. Ruling him out would be foolish.
Volkanovski is the favorite enter this fight, and it makes sense. At the end of the day, the Australian is defending his belt and already defeated Holloway just over half a year ago. That fight, though, was super close with no takedowns for any of the two, and a slight edge (157 to 134) on SS landed going Volkanovski's way. Same as with Masvidal, I'm going with the underdog here in Holloway if he can be considered as such at all. Again, the price tag looks entirely ridiculous with Holloway's 115.5 DKFP per fight in his last six, even losing two of those.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Petr Yan, $9,300 - vs. Jose Aldo
I have written an extended preview of this title fight over here.
If people are "forgetting" about Holloway, then you tell me what is going on between them and Jose Aldo. The Brazilian's track record in the UFC has suffered of late, but he was able to win the chip in his first official fight inside the Octagon and went on to defend it successfully six times in a row. Aldo's dominance not long ago was deemed one of the greatest ever in the promotion.
Petr Yan has never fought for the title, but his record is ridiculous up to this point. He's 6-0 since debuting in mid-2018, has wins against staples of the UFC like John Dodson and Urijah Faber, and is finally facing the chance of getting the gold around his waist.
Considering how both fighters have fared as of late, I find myself having to bank on Yan. His price is sky-high, that's for sure, but even factoring it in, it'd be too hard to go with Aldo here. Yan has doubled Aldo's fantasy points per fight since 2017, has never lost a fight, and also has finished three of his six via early KO. High price, but high reward.
DraftKings MMA Women Strawweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jessica Andrade, $7,200 - vs. Rose Namajunas
What to make of these two and this whole affair? Look, in any other card, a Namajunas vs. Andrade fight would headline the main card, plain and simple, even without a belt on the line. Such is the talent that both fighters bring to the table this weekend. Andrade was a champ as late as last August when she lost the belt to Zhang Weili. Namajunas herself relinquished the title to the very own Andrade back in May 2019 after snatching it from Joanna's Jedrzejczyk's waist. I'm not sure you can pack more superstar names in two sentences.
Same as with the three headlining fights, this one has everything in the air and feels super hard to predict on paper. Sure, the last time both gals fought, they both lost their bouts, and the last time they faced each other Andrade came out winner KO'ing Namajunas in under eight minutes. Even then, though, things were close in the sheet: Rose landed 55/125 SS to Jessica's 47/105, and the only significant difference came in Andrade's 2 of 4 successful takedowns to Rose's 0/2.
Since 2017, Namajunas seems to have abandoned his ground game a bit. She's only attempted five takedowns landing two of them (40%), which pales in comparison to Andrade's 20/36 (55%) in both volume and success rate. Andrade is also a higher-volume striker with much better rates (58.1% to Rose's 35.6%). The salaries don't make sense to me. The fight should be close, and Rose might come away with the W, but there is no way I pass on Andrade at that price compared to Namajunas' $9K salary!
DraftKings MMA Women Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paige VanZant, $6,700 - vs. Amanda Ribas
While the level drops a bit for the last fight on the main card, both VanZant and Ribas are still very capable fighters. VanZant's UFC tenure hasn't been as good as we expected back in 2014 when she made his debut in the promotion. Since then, she's just 5-3 having won her last bout after dropping two prior to that. Her contract ends after this weekend fight, and it is expected that she goes to another promotion, so she would try to get a win to get the most possible money she can elsewhere.
Ribas enters this contest with three fights inside the UFC Octagon and knows no defeat. Her 3-0 record has been built from June 2019 on, and although she's only won early once, she's been way dominant with an average of 91.2 DKFP per fight and never scoring fewer than 79.5 fantasy points. She has a complete game, both on the ground and striking, but I have to go with the "veteran" VanZant here. Both are 26, sure, but Paige has an extended run with the UFC, and with her future up in the air, she'll be doing it all to get away with that W. Also, check those prices. PVZ comes at a sweet $6.7K compared to Ribas' $9.5K. Staggering difference not worth paying for.
