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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 on 04/24/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
What happened once in forever not long ago is turning into a bi-monthly tradition these days, am I right? That's the impression, at least, as we're visiting Jacksonville, FL this time with another card packed full of belts this weekend. And I'm not talking about your casual, average, not-so-flashy-anymore two-championship-in-one-card type of thing. No, sir. I'm talking about a trifecta of titles on the line, the second time that's happening this year after we already watched something similar barely over a month ago!
As if three championship fights weren't enough as they are, the main one of them is pitting Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal against each other... for the second time in their careers after they already fought back in July 2020. Uh, oh, the stakes. On top of that, and before we reach that pinnacle-moment on Saturday, we'll get to watch two more champions risking their gold, both on the women ranks: Zhang Weili and Valentina Shevchenko both trying to extend their reins for a few months down the road with one more successful defense. You better be bringing the popcorn for this one, folks.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 on 04/24/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kamaru Usman (C), $9400 - vs. Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal did nothing for a while. Then, all of a sudden, Masvidal was the hipster player of the game after demolishing Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz with three consecutive KOs in the span of eight months in the good old 2019 year. No wonder, that masterful run opened Jorge the doors to a championship fight against mighty Kamaru Usman, the invincible one, which of course the former dropped via judges' decision.
And that means, obviously, that Usman was the one whose fist was raised to the sky on that July 2020 night. That also meant Usman had been able to keep his perfect record alive at 10-0 and counting, and that Usman had defended the gold successfully for the second time since he snatched it from Tyron Woodley all the way back in March of 2019. He would then proceed to put the 11th win in his resume with a KO of Gilbert Burns just this last February.
This is a great one because of everything surrounding the fight, can't lie about that. Even more, Usman went to a decision for the first time as a champ, as he had KO'd Covington prior to facing Masvidal and would do the same to Burns after defeating Jorge. Usman is the obvious favorite, worked the takedown game against Masvidal, bested his striking volume and accuracy, and got the W back in 2020. There is no way I'd bet against Kamaru here or anywhere, honestly.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Zhang Weili (C), $9000 - vs. Rose Namajunas
I'm absolutely ecstatic about the UFC showing serious love to the W divisions out there dropping two title fights on this single card, even more considering the names involved in them. Starting with Weili, well, I could just copy Kamaru Usman's resume from the section above and just paste it here. That's been Weili so far in the UFC. Five fights, five wins, a KO, and one submission among them. Talk about a beast.
At the other end of the Octagon there will be someone by the name of Rose... and oh boy does she come loaded with dangerous thorns. We're talking about a 7-2 fighter, and the one who was able to defeat the seemingly unbeatable Joanna Jedrzejczyk twice in just five months, the first to snatch the belt from her and the second one to successfully defend it. Rose couldn't keep it up against Jessica Andrade, and although she defeated Andrade in her last outing, Jess had already lost the belt so Rose couldn't regain it.
Here's the moment for Rose to make the gold hers once more, though, after she lost it almost two years ago. Namajunas enters this fight as a true dog, and it's not even close. There aren't fighters more rostered than Weili in DK lineups this weekend, and it makes sense. Weili can do it all, has yet to drop below 76 DKFP in any single fight, and she knows no defeat so far in the 2.5 years she's been at it.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Valentina Shevchenko (C), $9500 - vs. Jessica Andrade
Man, it's been a few years since we saw those two put on a pair of UFC gloves for the first time, isn't it? Andrade debuted with a KO-loss to Liz Carmouche all the way back in 2013 and Valentina did so in Dec. 2015 with a W against Sarah Kaufman. Since then, it can't be argued that Shevchenko has amassed a better overall career, though. She's 9-2 and she hasn't dropped a single bout since Sep. 2017 when she lost against Amanda Nunes for the gold. That has never happened again, as Valentina counts all of her next six fights by Ws, five of them involving belts.
Andrade, on the other hand, has been a little bit more up-and-down since 2017. She fell short against Joanna in 2017, missing on her first chance at lifting gold, but was able to rebound nicely with four consecutive Ws that saw her defeat Rose Namajunas in 2019 to finally become a champ. Not for long, though, as just three months later Andrade got molly-whopped by Zhang Weili with a 42-second KO that left her title-less. Another L followed, but Jess came back to the W column with a win against Chookagian via first-round KO last October.
This is probably the most unbalanced of title fights this weekend. Jess has just a 22% win probability and the Vegas ML is absolutely devastating for her (340) compared to Shevchenko's -455. Shevchenko lost a couple of fights here and there, but those definitely were other times and it's not that dropping one against the GOAT Nunes back in 2017 is a thing to be too worried about. Valentina can do it all, brings volume, and works the mat. Hard to picture Andrade pulling off the upset come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Uriah Hall, $8300 - vs. Chris Weidman
Battle of vets, this one. Hall and Weidman have not fought that many combined times with just 31 appearances inside an Octagon between the two of them, but Hall has been around since debuting in 2013 only to get bested at that by Weidman's debut all the way back in 2011 more than 10 years ago. Too bad for these two, though, is the fact that their careers are more on the downside than going upwards, although Hall definitely has the edge there.
Hall has fought four times since the start of 2018, and although he kicked that year off with a KO-against, he then pulled off three consecutive victories, two of them via KO against Bevon Lewis and Anderson Silva sandwiching a decision-W against Antonio Carlos Junior in 2019. That 3-1 is good, and he's actually 4-1 since the start of 2017.
Weidman, on the other hand, has been absolutely cooked of late with five losses and just two wins in the past five years--all of those Ls via KO, just imagine. He sure was able to rebound last August with his first W since July 2017, but the 2-3 record he's boasting since the start of that year doesn't tell the whole story. Hall is the clear-cut favorite for this one, and although Weidman has the edge on takedowns, the truth is that Hall has never been submitted. Both guys come with a quite fragile chin and could get easily rocked, making this affair a little bit risky for us fantasy GMs, though.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jimmy Crute, $8900- vs. Anthony Smith
Remember when Smith faced Jon Jones and dropped a decision and his lone chance for the belt? Man, it's been more than two years already. Crazy stuff. Smith had gotten the best of his prior three foes with 2 KOs and a sub, but after losing to Jones he went on to put on a 2-2 even record, and 1-2 in the last year. Not the greatest of bouncebacks, if you ask me.
Jimmy Crute had barely debuted when Smith faced Jones for the title and is 4-1 since Dec. 2018 in his five UFC bouts. The record is nice, and the actual results are even better with all fights (won or lost) ending before going the distance. Crute finished a couple of opponents via KO, including Bukauskas in his last outing, and subbed the other two, with three of those four wins coming in the first round--including his last two, both in 2020.
It's clear how Crute is riding the high wave compared to Smith's shaky outings of late. Crute reached at least 95 FP in all of his four Ws compared to Smith's average of 93 FP in his last five, going back to 2018. Crute comes with a higher floor and a sky-high ceiling, and that makes him the best bet here to keep up his current two-fight winning streak.
