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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns on 02/13/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Sometimes I think we don't deserve the UFC. This is one of those moments. The promo is putting together a "numbered" event and with it a title-fight less than a month from the last time we got to watch Conor McGregor's comeback in UFC 257. I know, I know, that even didn't include any belt put up for grabs, but having MacG back was enough for us to droll about it, and it is not that the outcome disappointed either. So to have Usman and Burns battling for the gold just three ones after that is, simply put, delightful.
You already know what's on the line here: Kamaru Usman, the reigning Welterweight champ and two-time defender of the title, is dangling his belt at Gilbert Burns' face and daring him to a challenge for a chance at grabbing the gold. Not bad, is it? Well, that's only the headliner, as we'll also have a couple of true bangers before we reach that climax involving the likes of Kelvin Gastelum, Maycee Barber, and Alexa Grasso. Sit tight, folks, because this one can't look much more promising on paper.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns on 02/13/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kamaru Usman, $8600 - vs. Gilbert Burns
Negationists have been in the spotlight lately, but negationists are mostly wrong no matter what they just don't come to accept. That's the case with Burns doubters, as the Brazilian has racked up wins since December 2018 and will enter Saturday's fight on an active six-win streak. No joke, this Burns. Gilbert is actually 8-1 since September 2017, has finished four of those eight opponents early (three KOs, one sub), and although that's made him a little bit bonus-points dependent it's not that he hasn't done it on decisions either, including a 25-minute one against Tyron Woodley in his last bout.
On the other end, the reigning WW champ Kamaru Usman will make for a fully-international fight for the belt here between an African and a South American. I guess I don't think to tell you a lot about Usman at this point, but just in case... Usman has yet to meet defeat in the UFC. He debuted in 2019 and all he's done in the promo is win, win, win no matter what. The record sits at 10-0, including three chip-fights against Woodley, Covington, and lastly Masvidal. Do you know this thing when they say "ah, he makes it look easy" about someone? They were probably talking about Usman.
Call me a homer, call me a coward, but there is no way I'd bet against Usman to retain the title here against Burns. See, the latter has been impressive, sure, but Usman is undefeated, literally. Usman throws bombs in bunches, land more of them than not, has played the long game throughout all of his careers, and also brings a nice ground game. Burns can do it all, but doing it against a deity like Usman might be too much for him.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexa Grasso, $8300- vs. Maycee Barber
This fight has a lot of appeal just considering where each of the contenders come from. Barber has been around only since November 2018 and has four fights in those two-plus years in the UFC with her last one taking place more than a year ago... which she also went to a loss. That L marked the first loss in Barber's UFC tenure after three sound and resounding KO wins prior to that, making her hit a hard wall.
Grasso, on the other hand, has almost double the experience of Barber with seven fights under her belt to this point. The thing with Grasso, though, is that she doesn't know how to string two similar outcomes, no matter if they're good or bad. Grasso has alternated wins and losses since her first bout, but if things go as I expect, that won't stay the same this Saturday and going forward.
Barber has not been forced into showing a lot as she's basically demolished most of her opponents so far in her career. It's worrying, though, that in the lone fight she had to endure 15 minutes of action she put up a dud landing just 34 of her 68 SS attempts. Neither fighter is a ground-beast, but Grasso's strikes come in much greater volume than Barber's and she's been going to the decision all career-long. I'd bank on Grasso's volume and striking over Barber's record and pedigree.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kelvin Gastelum, $8800 - vs. Ian Heinisch
When it comes to experience, it can't get much more distant than what these two will bring to the table. By the time Heinisch fought in the UFC for the first time in November 2018, Gastelum had already logged 13 fights himself, and most importantly, was ready to face Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya in April 2019.
Since that Nov. 18 fight, Heinisch has fought four more times in the span covering May 19 to June 20, amassing a career 3-2 record coming off a KO win in his last bout last June against Gerald Meerschaert, who could only stay alive for 1:14 minutes of fighting time. Uh, oh. Getting back to Gastelum's title fight, well, let's say things didn't quite work out for him as he lost to Adesanya and proceeded to enter a tailspin fall of bad results that has him looking at an 0-3 record since the start of 2019.
Is that going to continue? Let me doubt it. Gastelum has looked more cooked than not lately, and Heinisch is getting to this fight after getting precisely the opposite result of Gastelum's last fight (he was KO'd in 1:18). That being said, the curriculum of Kelvin and his win-or-go-fishing position this weekend make me believe he will do enough to come out on the winning side of things. Tough and close fight to call, but there are my two cents on it.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Maki Pitolo, $7500 - vs. Julian Marquez
Neither of these two has more than four fights under the UFC banner. Julian Marquez, in fact, is getting into an octagon just for the second time in his career this next Saturday after debuting last December with a submission win against Darren Stewart. It took him 7:42 minutes to pull off the feat and get his first and lone win in the UFC, which wasn't definitely bad for a start.
Maki Pitolo, on the other hand, is fighting for a good chunk of his life this weekend. The debut-loss one could have expected, and Pitolo's rebound with a KO win against Charles Byrd last June was magnificent. But after that Pitolo tried to do the impossible fighting two times in the span of 20 days in August... and it is not that he really thrived while at it eating two losses in a row.
With a 1-3 record staring at him, Pitolo definitely needs to score himself a W here, but Marquez is not the easiest of foes. Pitolo has shown some interesting ground game and has succeeded in 4-of-6 TD attempts so far, which could hurt Marquez, but he's also lost one via submission against the very own Darren Stewart (Marquez's lone victim) last August. Pitolo is the dog here but I wouldn't let those back-to-back losses affect my judging and I'd bet on him for Saturday's win and a second bounceback in his career to date.
