RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 97: Burns vs. Brady on 9/7/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After a week-long break, the UFC returns to action on Saturday with UFC Vegas 97 at the UFC Apex. But this isn’t your typical UFC Vegas card, this fight card is good, with some solid fights on it. Despite the back-to-back losses to champion Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, Gilbert Burns is looking to rebound and make one more title run, while Sean Brady is looking to better his position in the rankings.
In the co-main event, former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade makes her second Octagon appearance this year and targets the third win in a row, while her opponent, Natalia Silva, looks to extend her win streak to 12. Also on the card, Steve Garcia goes up against Kyle Nelson at featherweight, and Matt Schnell meets fellow American Cody Durden at bantamweight.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 97: Burns vs. Brady on 9/7/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
Happy New Year! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gilbert Burns, $7,500 - vs. Sean Brady
In the main event of the UFC Vegas 97, former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns faces the rising Sean Brady at 170 pounds. Burns enters Saturday’s card riding the first two-fight losing skid of his professional career.
Brady recovered from a Belal Muhammad loss by submitting Kelvin Gastelum in December. This battle will determine who will get opportunities to compete with the top five fighters in pursuit of a possible title shot.
Another media day in the books 📚#UFCVegas97 is almost here! pic.twitter.com/0CeYkNMTlz
— UFC (@ufc) September 5, 2024
Burns has been a top contender in the division for years, having come close to the title with his dangerous boxing and world-class jiu-jitsu skills. Since facing former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman for the belt, Burns has gone 3-3 in his last six fights.
In those six fights, Burns has defeated Stephen Thompson, Neil Magny, and Jorge Masvidal, and has lost to Khamzat Chimaev, Muhammad, and most recently, Jack Della Maddalena.
This is a big step up in competition for Brady. Brady has been near-perfect in his MMA career. The 31-year-old was 15-0 when he faced welterweight champ Muhammad in October 2022 where Muhammad won by finishing Brady via TKO.
Brady got back in the win column back in December by submitting Gastelum. He has victories over Court McGee, Ismail Naurdiev, Christian Aguilera, Jake Matthews, and Michael Chiesa.
When looking at significant stats, Burns averages 3.29 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 48%, while Brady averages 3.77 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 53%. Brady has a takedown accuracy of 57% and his takedown defense is 87%.
On the other hand, former title challenger Burns' takedown accuracy is at 38%, and he gets 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 50%.
Burns has the advantage on the feet due to his powerful overhands and his relentless pressure. He also packs a bit more power in his punches than Brady. Because Burns was an IBJJF World Jiu-Jitsu Champion (gi and no-gi), CBJJ Brazilian Champion, and UAEJJF World Pro Champion, it's evident that Burns will have an advantage when it comes to jiu-jitsu.
Compared to Burns, Brady is a better wrestler and is in his prime while Burns is 38 years old. That being said, this is one of the most important fights of Burns' career. He needs to win this fight if he plans on going for one more title run and I think he'll pull off the win. My prediction is that Burns wins this via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jessica Andrade, $7,200 - vs. Natalia Silva
In the co-main event of UFC Vegas 97, top-10 flyweights Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva are scheduled to go to war this Saturday. Andrade last competed at UFC 300, where she defeated Marina Rodriguez via split decision. Silva last competed at UFC Vegas 85 where she defeated Viviane Araujo via unanimous decision, extending her win streak.
Andrade is a former champion and one of the most accomplished women in UFC history. Despite going on a tough three-fight losing streak not too long ago, Andrade has rebounded, winning her last two bouts opposite quality competition in Mackenzie Dern and Rodriguez.
Known for her finishing ability, Andrade has 10 knockout/TKO wins and eight submission wins on her record. A win over a prospect like Silva will put Andrade right back in the mix for title contention.
Silva has looked highly impressive since signing with the UFC two years ago. She is 5-0 in the promotion and has stopped Tereza Bleda and Victoria Leonardo. The last time Silva lost was against Rodriguez and that was in 2017. Since then, Silva has been on a roll, winning 11 consecutive fights.
Andrade is, without a doubt, the biggest test in Silva's career. A win over Andrade would put Silva in the top five and put her close to the title shot.
Andrade has shown time and time again that when she’s focused and confident in the cage, she remains one of the five best fighters in the division. That being said, she has had a few low IQ moments that cost her the fight.
Silva is likely going to be able to match Andrade's strength but not her speed. Although Silva has 65% striking defense, I think Andrade is on a mission and is going to TKO Silva in the third round. That knockout power will be the difference maker.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Steve Garcia, $8,600 - vs. Kyle Nelson
On the main card of UFC Vegas 97, we have an exciting featherweight matchup between Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson. Originally, Nelson was supposed to face off against Calvin Kattar, but Kattar was forced to pull out due to injury. Garcia will be fighting for the second time in six weeks. Garcia last competed at UFC Vegas 94, where he defeated SeungWoo Choi via TKO. In his last bout, Nelson defeated Bill Algeo via first-round TKO.
Garcia has gone 5-2 during his UFC run since 2020. Garcia has won his last four UFC bouts, all by stoppages, after losing two of his first three fights in the UFC. Among those wins was a devastating body shot to Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and a first-round battering of Choi.
He has yet to see a third round in the UFC since his arrival and he's most likely going to be searching for a quick finish against Nelson considering he accepted the fight on short notice.
Nelson has some momentum as well, having won three in a row. In his last three bouts, Nelson has defeated Blake Bilder, Fernando Padilla, and Algeo. Interestingly enough, this win streak is the longest streak Nelson has put together since joining the promotion. Since signing with the UFC, Nelson has gone 4-4-1.
Nelson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-5-1. His striking accuracy is 45% and he's averaging 3.65 significant strikes per minute. His striking defense is at 52% as he absorbs 4.69 significant strikes per minute.
Garcia has a striking accuracy of 56% and is averaging 5.00 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 2.51 significant strikes per minute and his striking defense is at 46%. His takedown defense is 88% while his takedown accuracy is 40%, compared to Nelson, who has 20% takedown accuracy.
This is honestly a pick'em fight, as both can knock the other out. Because Garcia took this fight on short notice, it would be in Garcia's best interest to finish this fight quickly because the longer this fight goes on, the better the chance Nelson gets the job done.
This fight will likely be close until someone lands a knockout blow and I think Garcia will find a way to do it. He has an edge in striking and his takedown defense should cancel out any advantage Nelson may have. My prediction is that Garcia wins this via second-round TKO.
