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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan on 10/01/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We might be entering the cold part of the year, but we're definitely leaving the cold part of the UFC season. And I can't like it any more. After a two-week hiatus, Dana decided to gift us a fresh trip to Las Vegas to kick October off. We're staying in the APEX for two weeks before moving abroad for UFC 280, but that's a little too much down the road. Starting this weekend and after watching Sandhagen fighting Song the last time we got stuck to our favorite streaming service, it's time now for another women-led event.
Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan will go to war on Saturday trying to jump a few posts on the leader leading up to a title fight against Carla Esparza--or whoever reigns when they get there. It's the second time in (virtually) three months we get a card headlined by a W-Division fight, so it's time to celebrate. Here's hoping the promo slowly but surely promotes more high-stakes fights like this one in the future!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan on 10/01/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Yan Xiaonan, $7100 - vs. Mackenzie Dern
Dern and Yan have been in the UFC for virtually the same number of months while also fighting nearly the same amount of fights in that period, also basting very similar records. The difference is just to be found in their age, although it's not that they are too separated, and mostly on how their runs toward this matchup have been built.
Dern has not strung more than two victories in the UFC ever, having debuted in March of 2018. She is entering the Octagon this weekend boasting a W from defeating Tecia Torres last April. Dern has fought twice in the past 12 months (1-1) and three since the start of 2021 (2-1).
Yan, in a very contrasting way to Dern, won out all of her first six fights with absolute dominance only to drop one to Carla Esparza (reigning champ now) in May of 2021 and then loss again her last time out in March. Those two fights were rather disappointing, although his latest outing (a decision loss) wasn't that bad looking with good numbers on both striking and grappling.
None of these two are incredible at taking foes down nor can be considered true grappling marvels, but they can at least do something on that front with Dern a true submission artist having won three fights that way. Both women have yet to win via KO, though Yan was knocked out as recently as in May of 2021. Even then, she has not lost via submission yet and comes with a much higher striking volume, so I'm betting on her racking up more stats and fantasy points than Dern this weekend and ultimately bouncing back to get his first W since Nov. 2020.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Randy Brown, $9300 - vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Trinaldo is closer to turning 45 years old than Randy Brown is to turning 33. Just saying. Even then, and carrying massive wear of 25 fights inside a UFC Octagon, Trinaldo doesn't know how to stop doing this thing called MMA. And hey, it's not that he's any bad at it these days! Trinaldo is active as hell, has fought six times in the past 36 months, and in that time he's amassed a ridiculous 5-1 record. Oldie but goldie.
Brown hasn't been worse than Trinaldo, mind you. He's also 5-1 since the start of 2019 and enters this weekend boasting a three-fight winning streak spanning all the way back to Aug. 2020. While both fighters have at least one early finish in those recent runs, Brown has gotten three of them (two submissions, one KO) compared to Trinaldo's one (a W via KO in July of 2020).
Trinaldo has never been KO'd in his 10 years of UFC fighting and he was finished early for the last time in March of 2017; it's been only three losses (all via decision) in 10 fights since then for him. Brown, on the other hand, has suffered a couple of losses getting KO'd as recently as in Aug. 2020 and July of 2018 prior to that.
While both fighters have shown some takedown chops at some points through their careers they never fully bought into that style. You can count on one or two attempts by each of these men this weekend, and they'll luckily land one of those takedowns, but that's it. They will need to put on good striking performances to earn the victory, and Randy Brown has been much better at it with better volume numbers and landing more than 50% of his attempted SS more often than not. Give me the younger Brown sending Trinaldo into retirement.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Raoni Barcelos, $9000 - vs. Trevin Jones
You wouldn't believe it looking exclusively at his 4-2 record overall and 0-2 in the past 16 months, but Barcelos is an absolute fantasy MMA machine ranking inside the 96th percentile in DKFP. That includes all fighters in the history of the UFC, just in case. So great has Barcelos been that even in his latest two defeats he still scored 54.5 and 72.0 DKFP.
Trevin Jones, on the other hand, has been comme ci comme ça sporting a 2-2 record after winning his first two bouts via KO (both times at the start of the second round) only to drop the following two via submission and decision looking horrific in those losses. It's been so bad that he went from an average of 100+ DKFP in his first two fights to a measly 20 fantasy points in back-to-back defeats, and from a 99th-pctl rank to a mediocre 73rd.
All things considered, Trevin Jones got what he asked for. Both defeats came against 90th and 93rd-pct fighters so it's not that he was facing minnows. That was the case in his debut, but not so much in his last fight. When it comes to Barcelos, he's faced two top-90th-pctl fighters defeating one and losing (most recently) to another one last January.
While Jones' takedown-attempt numbers are gaudy (14 in just his last three fights) he's only landed one of those. Barcelos, while on lower per-fight volume, has a career record of 8-of-21 in takedowns and has landed at least one in three of his past four fights. He went 1-of-7 his last time out, though. Barcelos also has a clear per-minute edge in volume striking and honestly, it's not even close. It has to be Barcelos getting back on track and into the W column here.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
John Castañeda, $8800 - vs. Daniel Santos
Daniel Santos is coming off a debut in which he lost his first UFC fight ever. He did so against a veteran of the promotion, let alone the MMA circuit: Julio Arce. Arce mashed Santos with a 127-of-265 outing on SSL while the Brazilian attempted a close-enough amount of SSA himself (229) but could only land 49 on Arce for a putrid landing rate of 21%. Not the greatest outcome, but at least he tried and the volume was there.
Castaneda is now entering the Octagon for the fourth time in his UFC career. He also dropped his debut, although he did to a much stronger opponent in Nathaniel Wood and scored 27.5 DKFP while getting beaten in the eyes of the judges (55-of-130 SSL). Castaneda has bounced back to incredible heights after that, though, winning two fights in a row with 121 and 84 DKFP respectively and both times via early finishes (first via KO, then via Submission).
Prior to his loss, Santos had won two fights early too via TKO and submission, so he definitely has some finishing prowess inside of him. Those two wins, though, happened in 2019 and it'd been a while since Santos had fought, so the loss in the UFC this past April was kind of predictable. Can he rebound this weekend, though?
Other than Nathaniel Woods in his debut, Castaneda has yet to face someone who launches as much volume of strikes as Santos did against Arce. Castaneda limited his last two opponents to only 26% and 40% landing rates, though, so he knows how to defend himself and dodge bullets. The larger resume and the better track record have me leaning Castaneda on this one.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Davis, $8600 - vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Where is Borshchev's UFC career going? That, I can't tell you. What I can say at this point in time is that Borshchev is completely determined to make the most of his days in the promo and to fight as many times as his body allows him to. This weekend will mark Borshchev's third fight under Dana's banner and it will also be the third fight he's part of in 10 months.
Mike Davis, on the absolute opposite side of the spectrum, is getting his fourth matchup this Saturday after fighting twice in 2019 but only once since Oct. 2019 with his latest fight taking place in January of 2021, almost two years ago. Is that something that Borshchev might be afraid of, starting too quickly only to lose fighting time in the future? We'll see how that goes.
When it comes to this fight, the styles can't be more contrasting. Borshchev's two fights ended in a KO win and a decision defeat for him. He didn't get to launch even 30 SSA in any of those two, let alone going for a takedown. Alas, the massive boom/bust profile he carries with him having scored 113 DKFP (!!!) in his debut thanks to a first-round KO and his stinker of 6.0 DKFP (!!!) his last time out with a stat line reading 12-of-21 in SS... and that's it.
Other than in his debut loss--against a very fantastic fighter in Gilbert Burns, mind you--Davis has looked fantastic. He has thrown 207+ SSA in the last two fights, landed at least 108 of those in each of the two (52% and 63% landing rates) and has also gone 3-of-9 and 2-for-2 on takedowns in his most recent outings. It's Davis day and night.
