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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 58: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev on 07/09/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
So... yeah, a very chalky event that last one, wasn't it? Adesanya won as he always does and retained the belt. Volkanovski just made it clear for whoever didn't want to believe that was the case that he's head and shoulders above Holloway. Pereira got promised a bout against the champ, and O'Malley drew an NC. All good, and we're now embarking on another spell of lower-level events that will nonetheless include one in London, England, a few weeks from now and just before UFC 277 takes place at the end of July. But let's please not get too ahead of ourselves.
Vegas 58 will be the last event to be held in Nevada for nearly a month and it comes with a very saucy headliner pitting Rafael dos Anjos against Rafael Fiziev. The Battle of the Rafaels? Rafa Wars? No Country for Old Rafas? Very contrasting couple of fighters right there, to say the least, in which should be a fantastic night-capper. There will be more veterans, newcomers, all sorts of resumes on the line, and a bunch of good-to-watch fights with (we hope) unexpected final outcomes. So let's go and break things down.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 58: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev on 07/09/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rafael Fiziev, $9000 - vs. Rafael dos Anjos
After nearly seven years of MMA fighting under the UFC banner, dos Anjos finally got his chance of lifting a golden belt and he did so on his first shot facing and defeating Anthony Pettis all the way back in 2015. He successfully defended it once but couldn't stop Eddie Alvarez, who ended RDS's reign in Jul. 2016, exactly six years to this day. Though 6-4 from that moment on, the truth is that RDS is an even 3-3 since 2018 and 2-2 since 2020 with only one fight in the past 1.5 calendar year (a win last March against Renato Moicano). In his favor, though, it must be said that RDS jumped weight classes to face Colby Covington for the WW belt (RDS lost via decision) but is now back to the LW ranks. His last two outings, both victories, saw dos Anjos putting on consecutive sounds and winning via decision with very sound and solid numbers on both striking and grappling.
Fiziev is 10 years younger than RDS, the prospect among the two, and the one with everything in front of him and still to take and become a legend. After getting KO'd in his debut (lasting only 96 seconds), Fiziev has been on a ridiculous tear winning five straight from Oct. 2019 to Dec. 2021 including a couple of KO victories. Fiziev doesn't give a dam about taking foes down (he's 2-of-4 in his career) but the striking can't get more dangerous while also boasting a rather high volume. Fiziev is throwing 8+ SSA in the UFC without failing at that in all of his last five fights and counting, and he's landed 53% (!) of the 637 SSA he's launched since he stepped inside an Octagon for the first time more than three years ago. There is a clear ascending man here, though veteran RDS is still far from washed. Tough fight to predict, though Fiziev looks unstoppable right now. Give me the young blood.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Armen Petrosyan, $7300 - vs. Caio Borralho
While these two have fought once each in the UFC, they're a bit separated career-wise. Petrosyan got signed by the UFC already aged 32 years; Borralho did so at "only" 29. Both debuted this calendar year with fights in February for Petrosyan and April for Caio in which both fighters ended up getting away with the W under their belts. Petrosyan did it to the tune of a volume-based outing in which he landed 127-of-231 significant strikes, while Borralho opted for an über-efficient approach that saw him land 63% of his 49 SSA to go with a perfect 1-for-1 on takedowns.
Though not well-versed in UFC fighting, both of these guys come with large MMA resumes. Borralho has been doing it since 2014 and although he's the youngest of these two, he's also the one with more actual fighting experience and the better record at 11-1 (that loss arrived early in his career, in 2015, via decision). Petrosyan debuted only in 2018 and is a 7.1 pro fighter having only dropped one via KO slightly over a year ago. While Borralho has a very balanced track record in terms of his fighting profile (4 KOs, 4 decisions, 3 submissions), Petrosyan is an all-out fighter with 6 KOs to his name (seven if we count the loss) against just 1 decision victory. While more of a flier-fighter, I'd bet on Petrosyan as a fantasy asset here because his volume is super high and that will always amplify the potential rewards.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Said Nurmagomedov, $9200 - vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
If I tell you that both of these two have yet to put three victories together, you'd think they're probably very average, similar fighters. If I tell you that they are around 80% and 60% fighters when it comes to their winning rates in the UFC while having at least five fights each, one would start to get on top of the other. If I tell you that Said is 4-1 and Douglas 6-4, but that the former is into the 91st percentile of all-time MMA fighters in terms of scored DKFP to Douglas' 74th percentile rank... well, I guess that says it all and tells you all you need to know about these two and the sky-high price Said is tagged at for the weekend.
Said has four victories in the UFC, two-and-two sandwiching his lone loss in the promo, and three of those arrived inside the first 2:30 minutes of fighting time (including two Ws, his most recent ones, happening via KO and submission in under a minute). Douglas, on the other hand, and while winning early on a balanced basis (two KOs, one sub, three decisions) often goes to a decision (five of his 10 fights went the distance) but he never knew how to really take full advantage of those in terms of putting up volume numbers. With none of these two racking up takedowns nor exploiting the ground and grappling game, it's all about striking (volume and landing rates) and on those two fronts, Nurmagomedov excels and gets easily over his foe this weekend. Both men enter this fight on a two-fight winning streak (also, both won their last two fights by KO and submission once each) but I'd put my money and my mouth on Said getting his third straight come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Vanderaa, $8600 - vs. Chase Sherman
Definitely not the fight you'd pick to watch if you were offered the full card. Sherman and Vanderaa will enter the octagon this weekend carrying four- and three-fight losing streaks respectively. Vanderaa is actually a 1-4 fighter in the UFC and Sherman isn't a much better one having accrued a mediocre 3-9 record over his six years of fighting under the UFC banner. One could say that Vanderaa is about to enter that period--if he's not already there, truth be told--in which he'll absolutely be fighting for his life after losing three straight and getting finished early in three of his five UFC bouts.
Sherman is clearly not the biggest threat to Vanderaa's future in the UFC, of course. Chase has been submitted in the last two fights he's been part of (both this year) while dropping his two 2021 bouts via decision. Vanderaa, all negatives considered, at least put up 90.5 DKFP in his lone victory (against Justin Tafa) over a year ago thanks to landing 121-of-248 SSA. In his lone decision victory, all the way back in Jul. 2017, Chase Sherman stopped at 85 DKFP. Of course, Sherman has the KOs Vanderaa has never pulled off himself. I could pick both to lose, but I guess they can't barring something bizarre. Give me Vanderaa extending his life-line.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jamie Mullarkey, $9100 - vs. Michael Johnson
Johnson's UFC tenure is so extensive that it's broken down into years on his Wikipedia page. The funniest thing about it, though? The last point in the detailed resume and the name of the last section included in it claims "return to victory", which makes sense as Johnson had dropped all fights he was part of between the end of 2018 and last May when he finally won one for the first time in four tries. Jesus Christ. Now, for those in the known out there, that's far from surprising. Mike has never won more than four straight and that happened all the way back between 2013 and 2015, so go figure. Johnson's last W (via KO, yay!) only made his record read 3-4 in the past five years, so... yeah, not the greatest expectations here.
Mullarkey, while not incredible, has at least kept his head above the UFC waters. He's 2-3 but 2-2 in the past couple of years and although he got dropped by a knockout the last time we saw him last March he also had two KO victories prior to that helping him win out the 2021 calendar year. While Johnson is all about striking and the odd sure-to-land takedown, Jamie Mullarkey goes for them on a much more active basis and has an overall 10-of-31 record in his five fights. His striking shows good volume, too, with three fights in a row now attempting 10+ SSA per minute with individual outcomes of 17+, 13+, and lastly 10+. Mullarkey looks like the best bet this weekend as he's more active, less rusty, comes with a bigger skill set, and seems to be more on the rise than a seemingly washed Michael Johnson.
