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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 52: Lemos vs. Andrade on 04/23/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We're back at the Apex, folks. For the second week in a row, and smacked right in the middle of an actual three-week run to take place at the Las Vegas venue, Dana is handing us a (truth be told) soft card this weekend with a top-heavy headlining fight of sorts but a rather low-level rest-of-card. It's enduring times for us UFC fans as we await the upcoming UFC 274 on May 7, 2022, but hey, we're just a couple of weeks and change away. Stay positive!
Back to Vegas 52 this weekend, the two of Lemos and Andrade headline the main card with a main event in which the former will try to beat the latter after Andrade dropped her Strawweight belt a while ago. Another couple of women, De La Rosa and Barber will also finally face each other after their original bout (expected to have happened back on UFC 269) was forced off the lineup due to a DLR injury.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 52: Lemos vs. Andrade on 04/23/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jessica Andrade, $8900 - vs. Amanda Lemos
Jessica Andrade is getting back to the 115-pound battleground this weekend headlining the Vegas 52 main card and doing so facing Amanda Lemos. Lemos, by the way, has been an absolute menace since 2019 without a single loss from Dec. 2019 on in her five fights to date. Lemos, who debuted in the UFC in 2017 with a loss and stayed out for more than two years has been incredible since coming back and will make it tough as hell for the returning Andrade.
Andrade was a champ in 2019 but she's only appeared in another title fight and she dropped that one against Valentina Shevchenko in April of 2021 with a sound second-round KO against. Truth be told, Andrade has been good-not-great throughout her career. She's lost to the true top-tier fighters she's faced (Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Zhang Wili, Rose Namajunas, Shevchenko) but otherwise defeated every single soul outside of that demi-god level women. Andrade has turned into a KO-or-get-KO'd fighter recently, with seven of her last eight fights finishing with a knockout one way or the other, while Lemos has also gotten a couple of KO wins in the last calendar year. It's about striking and KO'ing the one at the other end for these two this weekend, and I'd bet on Andrade given her resume against second-level fighters throughout her long-tenured career.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Claudio Puelles, $8000 vs. Clay Guida
Total opposite directions, the ones these two have walked of late. While both Guida and Puelles will step into the Octagon with an earned W in their most-recent fights, the truth is far beyond that and this is not a balanced bout (at least on paper) if we look a bit under the hood. Guida has dropped four of his last five fights (Jun. 2018 on) and is 1-2 since Jun. 2020. Puelles, on the other hand, has won out all of his fights since coming back from a debut loss (2016) and is 4-0 in the past four years including a couple of wins in 2021, one of them via third-round submission.
The difference between Guida and Puelles is not just to be found in the career fight logs. It's also appreciable in their looks: Puelles is 25, Guida is 40, and the former could almost be the son of the latter. Experience might be on Guida's side this weekend, but that might go for nothing as age seems to be weighing more than knowledge on Guida these days. Puelles has landed a takedown in all of his five UFC fights while going an overall 5-of-12 in his 2021 fights for a good 42% success rate. Guida is far from the phenomenal grappler of his early days, though he proved he still has in it with a second-round submission W his last time out last December. All things considered, though, Puelles has a quite higher floor than Guida and should get the easy win this weekend with chances at a sub and a DK bounty if all goes his way.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexander Romanov - vs. Tanner Boser
[Boser dropped out of this fight after Romanov took Rodrigo Nascimento's place on short notice]
Don't let the chance slip and go watch Romanov this Saturday because it might mark the last time he features in a "subpar" UFC event--one not numbered and instead labeled "Fight Night". That's because Romanov, who has been around since Sep. 2020, knows no defeat in Dana's promo yet and has four consecutive victories with three of them happening inside the first two rounds (one via KO, two via submission). Simply put, Romanov is unique and a 99th-percentile fighter in his short UFC run to this date with fantasy scores ranging from 56 DKFP to 147.5 (yes, 147.5)
Counting from Jun. 2020 on, Boser is a respectable 3-2 fighter with those three victories called via first- (x1) or second-round (x2) KO. That's legit scary. Boser is not into this fighting thing for the funnies or to lose time trying to bring down his foes. In other words, he's attempted zero takedowns in seven bouts and he couldn't care less about it. Not that he needs that grappling game, though. Boser isn't the highest-volume thrower out there, but his 8.1 SSA per minute average is enough to edge Romanov at it. The latter, though, has a much higher SSL rate connecting on 68% of the shots he throws. I'm sorry for Boser--who it must be said has faced hella tuff competition lately--but I just don't see Romanov losing this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Jourdain, $8500 - vs. Lando Vannata
Vannata's and Jourdain's UFC runs are pretty much the same: a crazy pair of rollercoasters when it comes to wins and losses. You won't believe this, but none of them have strung two wins or losses in a combined 18 fights, which must make for a record of sorts. Interestingly enough, both find themselves entering next weekend with a W in their most recent fights, which means... we're in for a draw. Now, that's a bad joke, but it could happen because also somehow both fighters have one draw (Jourdain) or two (Vannata). It is just ridiculous, the history of these two.
Vannata has a few takedown attempts on his resume and while he's got nice success rates the truth is that he barely puts up bulky numbers (he hasn't landed more than one TD since Oct. 2017). Jourdain has zero takedowns to his name. When it comes to striking, though, both fighters find their mojo on that front. Jourdain launches an average of 14+ SSA per minute landing 53% of those while Vannata is at 10+ SSA per 60 seconds with a rate of 48%. The numbers are close, but Jourdain has the volume and accuracy edges on his corner, and he also has a couple of wins by KO from Dec. 2019 on. This is the most random of fights to pick a winner--in both real-life and fantasy realms--but Jourdain's numbers have me leaning Charles J.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Montana De La Rosa, $7200 - vs. Maycee Barber
What the hell happened to Maycee Barber, and how was she so sapped of power in the past three years!? Barber kicked her UFC career with three consecutive second- or first-round KOs giving her foes no chance at all. She never needed more than 68 SSL in any of those three fights, all of them in the 2018-19 span. After that: three more fights from Jan. 2020 on, a 1-2 losing record, and three straight decisions lasting 15 minutes each. Ugh. The per-minute striking volume has cratered and even though the larger amount of fighting time has allowed her to put up bulkier overall SSA numbers, the truth is that Barber hasn't landed more than 40 SS in any of the last three bouts compared to 34, 55, and 68 in her first three. At least Barber has gone for 11 takedowns in her last two fights landing four of those, her only saving grace.
DLR hasn't been incredible and she's alternated highs and lows since debuting back in 2019. He started with a submission W, dropped two of her next three fights via decision, drew one in Feb. 2021, and lastly battled and defeated Ariane Lipski last June. DLR has the edge on grappling and takedown volume (14-of-39 TD career-wise landing 36% of her attempts) but his striking pales compared to Barber's. Although DLR won via second-round KO her last time inside the Octagon, he had never done so before. This smells like a full 15-minute bout, and in that case, Barber's lowly game of late and DLR's takedown prowess should make the latter a better fantasy play than the former. Give me Montana.
