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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green on 02/26/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Let's make something clear: this UFC Vegas event is definitely not on par with what is about to hit our schedule in less than two weeks when UFC arrives in Las Vegas for UFC 272. Just peeping at the headliner (Covington vs. Masvidal) tells you all you need to know. But hey, it's not that we're here wasting our time sitting in front of our telly or our laptop come Saturday with what is on tap, folks.
Of course, the main event of the evening is a stunner of a fight between an unstoppable winning machine--Islam Makhachev--and the ultimate underdog--Bobby Green--who just happened to fight mere days ago and is taking on Islam on a 10-day notice. Jesus Christ, this madman. Before we reach that climax, though, we'll navigate a good card of fights spanning all divisions and genders and including both veterans and up-and-comers. It could have been much worse, but Dana provided a good appetizer for those of us waiting eagerly for Mar. 5 to arrive. Let's get it poppin'!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green on 02/26/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Catchweight (160 lb)- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Islam Makhachev, $9500 - vs. Bobby Green
Short-notice fight for Bobby Green, who is stepping into Beneil Dariush's shoes after the latter couldn't make it to the upcoming weekend... just after facing Nasrat Haqparat as recently as two weeks ago. Green, if anything, is a serious mad man. Goddam, son. That said, Green has been doing it for the past year and a half on a ridiculously high volume of fights, so this made sense. Green has fought seven times since Jun. 2020, boasting a 5-2 record in that span and currently carrying a two-fight winning streak (one decision, one KO).
Of course, Islam Makhachev feels inevitable to win this fight. First of all, the short-notice decision by Green is confounding given he fought just mere days ago. Second, Islam has won nine straight spanning back to 2016 and after staying a year and a half out of the Octagon, he came back in Mar. 2021 and is 3-0 since then with three submissions in a row. Makhachev is the no. 4 LW out there and clearly aiming for a title shot once for all. He's just a winning machine these days with almost zero chances of dropping this one. In fact, sportsbooks have a massively unbalanced favorite/dog split when it comes to this fight. Can happen for Bobby? Maybe. Just don't get too caught up in that one percent, folks.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Misha Cirkunov, $8300 - vs. Wellington Turman
Your vet vs. youngster of the weekend. Cirkunov has only done 11 times in the UFC, but he's a grizzled veteran entering age-35 this year. He spent one year out of the circuit from Sep. 2019 to Mar. 2021, and once he was back all he did was lose his last two fights--both of them taking place in the last year--one getting KO'd in 1:11 and the other, most recent one, via decision. Not looking too good for Misha, who is 2-5 since May. 2017 and of course past his 4-0 prime when he first hit the UFC octagons.
Turman, truth be told, has arguably been worse than Cirkunov. It is what it is, folks. Turman was his last fight, sure, but other than that his results have been rather overwhelming with a 2-3 record that includes a couple of first-round KOs-against taking place in Aug. 2020 and Jun. 2021. Nothing to like about that, if you ask me. Turman has been the clear-cut strongest man ag attempting takedowns, though the landing rates have not been incredible. Turman is 8-of-36 at it career-wise, good for a 22% success rate. Cirkunov, though, came out of nowhere with his 17 TD attempts his last time out of which five of them were successful. That obviously clear the only gap between these two, and that's why I'm picking Misha for this one.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ji Yeon Kim, $8600 - vs. Priscila Cachoeira
These two fighters aren't even remotely close to getting a shot to the belt, and in fact, the outcome of this fight might have very serious implications when it comes to Ji Yeon Kim's future in the UFC. Kim is 0-2 in her last two fights with the two of them happing in the last couple of years. She had won three straight prior to that skid, but a third loss in a row could mean trouble for her going forward. Kim is a striking machine that misfires more often than not (38% landing rate) but that always breaks the 150+ SSA mark with an average of 224 SS attempted per fight.
Cachoeira is coming off dropping her first fight since May 2019, and she had won a couple via second- and first-round KOs (May 2021 and Feb. 2020) before getting submitted by Gillian Roberts in UFC 269 last December. Good for Priscila, it doesn't look like Kim will be a menace at bringing the fight to the mat so Cachoeira should be safe on that front. The volume, though, stinks for her. The same happens to her takedowns, which are simply inexistent. This fight stinks for fantasy purposes no matter how you look at it, but if only because of the higher volume coming from Kim's side, I'd bank on her assuming there is no KO taking place this weekend from one or the other contestant.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joel Alvarez, $7100 - vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Are these two men simply copying each other? One would say judging by their eerily similar results. Both Arman and Joel sport a 4-1 record, only lost the perfect record in their debuts, and have been around since early 2020 with at least one fight in '19, '20, and '21 each. That said, Joel Alvarez might have been the greater fantasy asset given his early-finish prowess--Alvarez has either KO'd or submitted all of his four last foes for that ongoing 4-0 streak of Ws he's currently boasting. Even then, though, it's not that Arman has flopped as he's also 4-0 entering the weekend with a KO victory (2:09) in his most recent fight last September.
The difference between these two, though, is to be found in the takedowns column. While Tsarukyan is actively chasing takedowns (41 attempts in five fights combined), Alvarez has gone for not a single takedown himself. Of course, Alvarez has submitted two opponents, so it's not that he can't do it on the mat, mind you. When it comes to volume, Alvarez has been on the Octagon for so little time thanks to his early victories that he hasn't shown enough to date. It looks like Tsarukyan might have a slight edge in terms of SS volume, but nothing remarkable. Tough fight to pick a winner from, much less to predict an outcome given both men have the talent and abilities to finish things early. I'd side with Alvarez because of his recent first-round dominance, but everything is up in the air if we're honest.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gregory Rodrigues, $8500 - vs. Armen Petrosyan
While Armen Petrosyan is not entirely new to the world of the UFC, he's surely making his "official" debut this weekend after competing in Dana's Contender Series as recently as last October. This will mark Petrosyan's first true appearance on a numbered/FN UFC event at age 31 and after having a rather small sample of MMA fights to his name with a 6-1 record overall. That lone loss is rather recent, though, happening just six months ago when he ate a first-round KO lasting just 1:03 on his feet.
Gregory Rodrigues isn't much younger than his foe this weekend, but he has double the experience with an 11-3 pro record. Rodrigues is 2-0 in the UFC, too, having a couple of victories coming last June and October. And he looked ridiculously great in those two, all things considered. Rodrigues went to the judges' decision in his debut but landed almost half of his SS (71 of 150) while being successful in 3-of-5 takedown attempts. He doubled down on that performance with a 68-90 striking and 2-4 taking his second rival down for a second-round KO victory. The tallies went all the way up to 80.5 and 119 DKFP, and even removing the victory/early-finish bonus fantasy points, he'd have still scored 50.5 and 49.0--nothing remarkable, but something more than half of the fighters out there would kill for. Give me Rodrigues all day for this one.
