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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 42: Holloway vs. Rodriguez on 11/13/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Whether you like this weekend card or not, you can't complain about it. I mean, we're coming off two straight numbered events in UFC 267 and UFC 268. It can't get much better. When Dana puts on work, Dana puts on work. It is what it is. And he has truly delivered of late. And hey, it's not that this return to Vegas looks that bad, if you ask me, so you better stay high on what is coming.
For starters (actually, for the ending, I guess) we will get to watch Max Holloway back at it for the first time since his last bout to date took place all the way back in January, while his foe in Yair Rodriguez has been out of the Octagon since... October 2019! Yikes. Good for us, these two are fighting for a shot at the belt as Holloway already fought in a no-championship fight his last time out while Yair has never gotten that chance so is still hungry to get there. The main card will also feature a good mixture of veterans, up-and-comers, former title-fight fighters, and another fighter on a personal comeback tour after stepping into the Octagon only once since Nov. 2019. Again, nothing to complain about.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 42: Holloway vs. Rodriguez on 11/13/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Max Holloway, $9500 - vs. Yair Rodriguez
It sounds ridiculous, but it is the truth: we had not watched Max Holloway not fighting in a title bout for four years straight until he did so last January facing--and defeating--Calvin Kattar. Incredible. Holloway won four of his first title fights, but he then went on a 1-3 skid in the 2019-20 span only to rebound his last time out. Yair Rodriguez has only one loss in his 10-fight resume, and it took place all the way back in 2017... though it is also true that Yair has not stepped into an Octagon for 24+ months.
While Holloway was a KO-machine not long ago, he has turned into a long-distance fighter of late with five straight fights going to the judges' decision. He's not been lucky on those, carrying a 2-3 record on those. We know Holloway, and he won't be handing you bonus grappling points. Same thing with Yair Rodriguez, who is also all about striking foes. The reasonable thing here is to lean Max if only because he's the freshest man out, his SS volume is insane--he threw 744 (!!!) SSA against Calvin Kattar and landed 445 (!!!) of them for a ridiculous 252.5 DKFP score, and finally won for the first time in more than a year. Max is Back.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ben Rothwell, $8600 - vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
These two have been around for a while, but Ben Rothwell clearly edgest Rogerio at it as the former debuted in the UFC all the way back in 2009--yes, that is more than 10 years ago--as part of the UFC 104 card losing to Cain Velasquez. Marcos did so "just" in 2014 dropping his foe via KO. Anyway, do you know what's fun about Rogerio's 11-fight UFC career? He's never won nor lost two straight, as ridiculous as that sounds. Rothwell, moving on to his most recent run, is an even 3-3 fighter since the start of 2019 (he didn't fight for three years between 2016 and 2019).
Rothwell has looked more right than wrong of late with a 3-1 record since Dec. 2019. He's defeated foes in all three possible ways--KO, submission, decision--and the only fight he lost he did so reaching the judges' decision (though he was rather bad with a 32% landing rate going 89-for-276 in SS). Marcos, as you know, is as random as they come ad pretty much a grappling adept with the lowest volume of strikes ever (he's not even reached 60 SSA in any fight over his seven-year career). The consequence: a boom/bust profile we're better off in any sort of fantasy contest, including DFS this weekend. Bet on Rothwell's higher floor if you're forced to pick one of these two--at least you'll get 40 DKFP worst-case scenario--but avoid them at all costs if possible.
DraftKings MMA Women's Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Felicia Spencer, $9100 - vs. Leah Letson
Truth be told, Spencer hasn't been put on the easiest of spots through her short, two-year UFC tenure. After getting crowned Invicta champ and signing with Dana's promo, Felicia did win her debut via first-round submission, got hyped and inevitably lost to Cris Cyborg next, rebounded against Zarah Fairn with another first-round W (via KO this time), and then fought for the W'FW belt against Amanda Nunes only to lose that fight and her next one six months ago. This is Spencer for you in the UFC: a midget-demolisher, big-time flopper.
Sadly for Leah Letson, she looks more like a midget than a big-timer here facing Spencer... Letson is making her UFC debut this weekend, and her record is a nice 5-1 as a pro, but I don't think anybody is thinking of Letson as a true threat for Spencer entering this bout. Letson is three years removed from her last fight (UFC TUF 28 Finale) and although she's rocked three foes with a KO while winning two more via decision and having her lone loss in her first fight ever (2014), it is not that she will have any single chance this weekend. Easy pick, this one.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Song Yadong, $8400 - vs. Julio Arce
Julio returned to the Octagon this past July after staying out of it for almost two years and all he did was drop Andre Ewell with a knockout in just 8:45 of fighting time. Not bad for Arce, who has alternated Ws and Ls in his career other than in his first and second bouts--back-to-back victories in the first half of 2018. Yadong, on the other hand, fought three times in the period Arce stayed out alone. He's 6-1-1 since his Nov. 2017 debut, and although that record drops a bit to 3-1-1 in the past two years of fights, he's still the favorite for Saturday's meeting.
Yadong, all things considered, looked unstoppable until his loss against Kyler Phillips this March (via decision). He had racked up wins and even got three early finishes (two KOs, one sub) to his name prior to that. Yadong's striking volume isn't overwhelming, but he surpassed the 200-SSA mark in two of his last three fights, definitely a positive sign. Arce looked reasonably well his last time out, and he got the KO victory, but he comes with a slightly lower floor considering both wins and losses in his resume. Not a no-brainer of a pick, this one, but I'd still lean Song Yadong because of his nearly perfect track record in the UFC and the domination of Casey Kenney (116-257 SSL-SSA) the last time we watched him last August.
