DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley

DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley on 12/14/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.

The final UFC event of 2024 takes place this Saturday in Tampa, Fla. The event will mark the promotion's fourth visit to Tampa and first since UFC on ESPN+ 19 in October 2019. The UFC Tampa main event will have former interim welterweight champion Colby Covington returning to face up-and-coming Joaquin Buckley. Originally, Buckley was supposed to take on Ian Machado Garry, but Garry was moved to 310 a week earlier to face off against Shavkat Rakhmonov and was replaced by already mentioned Covington.

In the co-main event, we have legendary Cub Swanson facing off against Billy Quarantillo in a featherweight bout. Other interesting matchups on the UFC Tampa main card include Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva, Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby, and Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos. Also, the last fight on prelims is set to feature Michael Johnson and Ottman Azaitar in the lightweight division.

In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley on 12/14/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!

DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks 

Colby Covington, $7,200 - vs. Joaquin Buckley

Nearly a full year after his last appearance in the UFC, former interim welterweight champion Colby Covington returns to competition to take on surging Joaquin Buckley in the main event of UFC Tampa.

Covington looks to get back on track and in the win column after losing his last bout to former welterweight champion Leon Edwards, while Buckley looks for his sixth win in a row. The bout will serve as the final UFC fight of 2024.

Media day is a WRAP in the Sunshine State ☀️#UFCTampa is almost here! pic.twitter.com/fiYFDcZyUZ

— UFC (@ufc) December 12, 2024

Covington was last seen in action at UFC 296, where he lost a clear-cut 49-46 unanimous decision to former champion Edwards, which was his third title fight, the first two being against Kamaru Usman.

In his bout against Edwards, Covington didn't look like himself and was soundly defeated in a fight that was most likely his last title fight. The loss to Edwards dropped Covington to 2-3 in his last five fights. His wins were against former BMF champion Jorge Masvidal and former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley. Before his first fight with Usman, Covington was on a seven-fight win streak.

Buckley was originally scheduled to take on Ian Machado Garry before Machado Garry was pulled to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310 after Belal Muhammad was forced to pull out of his fight against Rakhmonov. In contrast to Covington, Buckley has been on a tear, winning five fights in a row, three by knockout.

However, in his last fight against Stephen Thompson, Buckley was on his way to losing by a unanimous decision until he landed a devastating right hook in the third round that knocked Thompson out cold.

Covington enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-4 and is 12-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.88 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. Covington has a striking defense of 55% and is absorbing 2.98 strikes per minute. Regarding his grappling, Covington is averaging 3.79 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 67%.

Buckley enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-6 and 10-4 in the UFC. He has a striking accuracy of 36% and is averaging 4.13 strikes per minute. Buckley is absorbing 3.20 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.96 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown defense of 69% and a takedown accuracy of 44%.

This is an obvious “Wrestler vs. Striker” matchup. There's no doubt in my mind that a prime Covington would have been able to beat Buckley, but Covington at this stage of his career might struggle. On the other hand, we just saw Buckley struggle against a 41-year-old Thompson.

Although Buckley is on a five-fight win streak and Covington lost his last fight, I'm still picking Covington to win this one. I think his wrestling and cardio are going to be too much for Buckley. My prediction is that Covington is going to win this via unanimous decision.

DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks 

Cub Swanson, $7,800 - vs. Billy Quarantillo

Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo are scheduled to face off in a featherweight bout in the co-main event of UFC Tampa on Saturday. Both fighters are looking to get back in the win column after losses, Swanson to Andre Fili in June at UFC 303 and Quarantillo to surging Youssef Zalal in March at UFC Vegas 89.

Swanson has been alternating wins and losses since 2020. Most recently, he lost a split decision to Andre Fili in a Fight of the Night bout at UFC 303. Known for his dynamic striking and slick submissions, Swanson has faced some of the toughest names in the featherweight division. Swanson is set to fight for the 32nd time in his UFC/WEC career this weekend, which is the most appearances of any 145-pound fighter.

Since a 3-0 start to his UFC tenure, Quarantillo has struggled to find consistent results. Just like Swanson, Quarantillo has alternated wins and losses, and just like Swanson, Quarantillo is 3-3 in his last six. Quarantillo is known for his cardio and pressure, as he can break opponents on the feet. He is also known as a reckless brawler with great cardio and pressure.

Swanson enters this fight with an MMA record of 29-14 and is 19-13 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.67 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Swanson is absorbing 3.86 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 59%. When it comes to his grappling, Swanson is averaging 1.06 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 63%.

Quarantillo enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-6 and is 7-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 7.36 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. Quarantillo is absorbing 5.57 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling is decent, as he's averaging 1.24 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 23% and a takedown defense of 61%.

As stated before, Quarantillo is known for his pressure and he likes to brawl. He's a volume striker but he absorbs nearly as many punches as he lands. And although he's 41 years old, Swanson still hits hard and uses footwork to find his shots. His defense is also good enough for him to deal with Quarantillo's striking.

If Quarantillo plans to fight like he usually does, I see Swanson catching him and knocking him out. I see Swanson winning this by a third-round knockout.

DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks 

Manel Kape, $9,200 - vs. Bruno Silva

On the main card of UFC Tampa, we have a flyweight showdown between No. 12 flyweight Bruno Silva and No. 9 Manel Kape. Silva has been on a four-fight winning streak, while Kape will try to bounce back from a unanimous decision loss he suffered to Muhammad Mokaev.

Kape debuted in the UFC in 2020, and although his early UFC record wasn't stellar, Kape managed to bounce back and win his next four fights. Kape last appeared at UFC 304, where he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Mokaev that snapped his four-fight winning streak. He has a strong Muay Thai base but is also capable on the ground. He has notable victories in Rizin, where he was the flyweight champion.

After going winless in his first three UFC bouts, Silva got back on track by winning four fights in a row. He was last seen in action at UFC Vegas 94, where he defeated Cody Durden by a second-round TKO. Other than Durden, those wins haven’t come against particularly established names, as none of those previous opponents are still in the UFC. He is primarily a striker with a strong emphasis on Muay Thai, but he is well-rounded and can mix it up with takedowns and ground control when needed.

Kape enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-7 and is 4-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.44 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Kape has a striking defense of 59% and is absorbing 4.06 strikes per minute. When it comes to his grappling, Kape is averaging just 0.54 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 73%

Silva enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-5-2 and is 4-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.32 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Silva absorbs 3.14 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.26 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 28% and a takedown defense of 60%.

Silva needs to get this fight on the ground if he wants to win this fight. When it comes to striking, Kape is a much better striker than Silva. Also, Kape's takedown defense is 73% and I don't see Silva finishing him on the ground, or holding him down long enough to win the fight. My prediction is that Kape is going to win this fight via unanimous decision.

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