RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC London: Aspinall vs. Blaydes on 07/23/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After four months of waiting, London is getting another UFC event and Dana's carnival will be led by, who else, Tom Aspinall one more time in the UK. He grabbed his fifth victory (5-0) when he last visited the European ground on live TV, so it's not that bad news for him. Coming off a New York detour that saw the promo leave Las Vegas for a minute, it now turns to go overseas before the last event of July a week from now brings UFC 277 with it back in the home and hot soil of Texas.
Aspinall has (reasonably) not fought since the last time he did it, which happened to be in London and where he got to keep up a perfect record going five-for-five. Curtis Blaydes, the Illini native, will be the man tasked with stopping Aspinall for putting that sixth W in the latter's fight log. Not only that but the likes of Paddy Plimblett (a homegrown talent) and legendary Alexander Gustafsson (first fight since July 2020) will be around the place and entering the octagon when their names are called Saturday. Get ready for the fireworks because this sure looks like a promising one!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC London: Aspinall vs. Blaydes on 07/23/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tom Aspinall, $8300 - vs. Curtis Blaydes
It'd be unfair to say Blaydes has ever reached Aspinall's levels of fighting. It can be said that they are close, though, and of course, Blaydes has sustained his greatness for a much longer period of time(11-3-1 debuting in 2016). Even then, none of the two has gotten the ever-wanted shot at the championship yet and although Blaydes was close a couple of times, he always ended up losing in the critical fight that would have meant a final jump. Aspinall, on the other hand, has yet to lose in the UFC (5-0) while looking for that title fight himself. The problem? Something called Heavyweight division, which is the same as saying the division with the wildest outcomes and all of the range of probable results equally probable to happen.
Aspinall looks the part of a champ, can't lie about that. His five wins have all been dominant, without exception. He's never been inside an Octagon for more than 5:09 minutes, and the time he did he still found his way to a submission. He's got three KOs and two subs in the UFC. Opponents fear him, and with very serious reason: Aspinall is just into the 98th percentile of fantasy fighters since the UFC kicked off in the 90s on a per-fight DKFP. Blaydes isn't short of plaudits, mind you. He's hyperactive when it comes to chasing takedowns and doesn't forget to strike opponents square, either. Not that he needs massive amounts of volume, though, as his KO prowess has more than proved. As impossible as it sounds, another setback (a loss) by Blaydes shouldn't mean much as he's still a young HW at only past 30 years of age. Aspinall last fought at 29. These two are the short/mid-term future of the division but Aspinall has looked so ridiculously great that I see no way Blaydes pulls off the upset. Even if the fight goes the distance, Aspinall should edge Blaydes on a per-minute DKFP basis. "Easy" pick here, though keep in mind there is no such play in the HW division of MMA.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Curtis, $8200 - vs. Jack Hermansson
While Jack grew as a pro (mostly) in the UFC--where he's been doing it for more than half a decade debuting in Sep. 2016--Chris just landed on the promo and hit the floor running: 3-0 including three early finishes (both KOs) in his first two fights capped by a decision victory over Rodolfo Vieira just last June 25th, less than a month ago (seriously). It's the most improbable thing one would think, but Curtis seems to actually like this short-notice scheduling: he debuted in Nov. 2021 only to fight just a month later, and he's now facing a second opponent in less than four weeks' time. Sheesh. Not a lot to say about Curtis, who arrived in the UFC determined to lift a belt and is clearly building quite the resume to getting there.
Hermansson, while not on the same rampant run and having fought one time in each of the past three calendar years before doing so three more times in 2019 alone, is 2-1 since the start of 2020 but comes off losing to Sean Strickland last February. Hermansson has historically chased takedowns while pulling them off nicely (he has landed at least one in six of his past eight fights), and his striking is also very strong with high landing rates and volumes. Of course, he loses any and every comparison to Curtis on a pure statistical basis other than the ones about grappling, but it's not that Curtis cares that much--if at all--about that side of the game in his fights. Hermansson was an 85+ DKFP fighter in 2019 but his last three fights finished topping at 91, 72.5, and most recently 68.5 FP. CC, on the other hand, has scores of 110.5 (x2) and 84.5. Gotta side with CC here as the most reasonable (not cheap) fantasy option.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paddy Pimblett, $8900 - vs. Jordan Leavitt
Go to these two's fight logs. Filter out the fights that happened in the UFC before September of last year. Voila, 2-0 against 2-0. That's cherry-picking on an already small sample size of fights these two have been part of (three for Leavitt, two for Pimblett), but you get the idea: Pim and Leav can do it in the UFC. Other than Leavitt's loss in his debut (via decision going 21-of-34 striking, 2-of-7 taking Claudio Puelles down) he's perfect, and so is his foe this weekend in Pimblett (one KO, one submission; both in the first round). These two are young blogs, in their prime, and have a very clear personal target in mind: lifting a golden UFC belt.
Pimblett hasn't even been a year inked to the UFC and he's already a marvelous contender. His 99th-percentile rank is just one of 11 so high among fighters with 2+ fights and one of those taking place in the past seven months. He's one of just nine fighters (min. 2 fights) with an average of 110+ DKFP to get inside the Octagon in the past five years. I could keep going. And I get the small sample concerns, but Paddy belongs as hell. He should normalize his striking volume a bit (it was ground-level low in terms of striking in his last fight, but very high in his debut) and he'd lose the edge of the grappling/takedown game to Leavitt, but he's got a very rounded package all things considered. London is welcoming the UFC, and I will bet on Paddy welcoming his third straight W.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nikita Krylov, $8600 - vs. Alexander Gustafsson
It's about time, Gus. Let me tell you a little secret. I had watched UFC events here and there prior to the 2013 first Gustafsson vs. Jones part of UFC 165, but from that moment on I got ultra-hooked to this thing. It was the game-changing event (and fight) for me, so you bet I was looking to watch Gus back after his two-year hiatus since he got submitted by Fabricio Werdum in the first round of his last fight. It's been a sad few years for Gus, to be honest. He's 0-3 from Dec. 2018 (vs. Jones) and hasn't won a fight since May of 2017! Adding wood to the fire, he's got KO'd once and subbed twice, so go figure...
Krylov, while much more active of late (six fights in the past four years compared to Gus' three), has not really been any better when it comes to his results. He's 2-4 in that four-year span and just 1-2 in the past two years as a whole. He's coming off losing twice, his last outing a submission loss to Paul Craig last March. When it comes to these two these days, it's just a losers affair. Sad, but true. Krylov should have something more and he excels at taking foes down with a respectable number of attempts and phenomenal takedown rates. Not the highest-volume striker, but it is what it is. Gust is just so removed from his peak that looking at his most recent stuff feels old, too. Who knows if he'll bring back his mojo on Saturday. Could happen. I'm just not seeing it and Gushas been the one getting finished in three straight fights, so give me Krylov this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Craig, $7700 - vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Amateur Gawd and Scottish lad Paul Craig is facing a former tough guy in Volkan Oezdemir this weekend. Vegas has the latter as the clear-cut favorite for this one, though in the past five calendar years (kicking that span off with a title-fight loss to Cormier) Volkan is 2-5 compared to Craig's 7-2-1 record. I mean, not only has Craig won more fights and posted a much better percentage and results, but he's also won as many fights as Volkan has simply been part of overall, and Craig has straight dominated the opposition and finished guys with gusto. Craig, mind you, is the preternatural Finish-or-Get-Finished type of fighter. He's only once got to the judges' decision in his UFC career... and that ended in a draw. LOL.
Volkan is absolutely cooked. He last defeated a fighter in Dec. 2019 (decision W vs. Aleksandar Rakic) after KO'ing Ilir Latifi prior to that just four months before. Volkan went back to his bad ways following those two victories stringing two defeats in his last two fights, the most recently last October. Oezdemir is a pure striker and won't think about taking down foes for a second. Craig has a little bit more rounded game, but it's not that he's out there chasing takedowns either. The striking volume is on Volkan's side, but if we're honest Craig just hasn't needed it that much. Craig has finished five of the six last opponents he's faced, but in that full-time draw, he could only muster 33.5 DKFP against Mauricio Rua. So get what I'm saying. Absolute boom/bust guy, but definitely the one to bet on this Saturday.
