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After two weeks of hiatus, the UFC is back with another event scheduled for this weekend inside the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The event will mark the promotion's seventh visit to Denver and first since UFC Fight Night 139 in November 2018. Despite the loss of athletes in both the main and co-main events, the card still holds up. Maycee Barber was supposed to headline UFC Denver but was forced to pull out of the fight due to what was later revealed to be ongoing health problems, and Chris Duncan was scheduled to face Nazim Sadykhov in a lightweight bout but was replaced due to undisclosed reasons.
UFC Denver is headlined by a women’s flyweight fight between former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and short-notice replacement Tracy Cortez, who is on an 11-fight win streak. In the co-main event, we have a welterweight matchup between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov. Both Ponzinibbio and Salikhov are looking to bounce back from losses. There’s also a bout between Drew Dober and short-notice replacement Jean Silva.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Denver: Namajunas vs. Cortez on 07/13/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rose Namajunas, $9,000 - vs. Tracy Cortez
Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas was originally scheduled to face off against fourth-ranked Maycee Barber, but Barber was forced to pull out of the fight. That fight would have answered a lot of questions regarding the state of the women's flyweight division.
Instead, Namajunas will now face Cortez, who looks to extend her UFC record to 5-0. It could be said that this is a classic matchup between a striker like Namajunas, who is known for her technical prowess, and Cortez, who has a strong grappling background. This is, without a doubt, a huge matchup for both fighters considering they are looking to enter the title conversation.
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Fan-favorite Namajunas moved up to flyweight two fights ago. In her flyweight debut, Namajunas lost to the future title challenger, Manon Fiorot, via unanimous decision, but managed to get back in the win column in her last fight by defeating Amanda Ribas via unanimous decision. That being said, I consider Ribas mostly as a strawweight, so Namajunas' ability to compete in the bigger weight class remains a question. And despite Namajunas' 12-6 record, she is arguably one of the best fighters in the division.
Ever since losing her MMA debut, Cortez has been on a tear, winning her next 11 fights. Cortez is known for her aggressive and relentless fighting style. She excels in close-quarters combat and is proficient in clinch work and grappling exchanges. In her last few fights, Cortez has also shown improvements in striking, demonstrating crisp combinations and effective striking defense. Originally, Cortez was set to fight on July 20 at UFC Apex against Miranda Maverick on a card that offered her little to gain, as Maverick is unranked and she's ranked. Then, it was announced that Barber had to pull out of the fight, so Cortez agreed to step up.
Cortez is yet to earn a finish in the UFC. About 81.8% of wins that Cortez has earned have come off decisions. Meanwhile, she has only two finishes, one by submission and one by knockout. On the other hand, Namajunas has a career total of seven finishes, which includes five wins by submission and two wins by knockouts. She has finished the likes of Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Zhang Weili.
Namajunas is experienced when it comes to five-round fights, while this is going to be Cortez's first five-round fight. Not to mention, they are fighting at high elevation. This is without a doubt the biggest challenge in Cortez's fighting career. Namajunas was preparing for Barber, who is known as an all-around fighter, while Cortez has been preparing for Maverick, who is known for her wrestling.
Considering the high elevation, opponent switch, and the fact that this is Cortez's first five-round fight, it isn't hard to see why Namajunas is the favorite. And for those reasons, I have to go with Namajunas. Namajunas has far better striking and should be so much faster throwing a range of combinations, whereas Cortez's striking is limited. My prediction is that she wins this via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Santiago Ponzinibbio, $8,800 - vs. Muslim Salikhov
In the co-main event, we have a welterweight showdown between two veterans, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov. Both Ponzinibbio and Salikhov are strikers who have struggled as of late, as both are coming off knockout losses. These two were originally scheduled to fight way back in January 2021 before Salikhov contracted COVID-19 and was forced to withdraw. Ponzinibbio has lost two of his last six heading into this co-main event slot. Salikhov has lost three of his last four fights and has been knocked out in two of his last four fights.
Although he suffered some losses in recent years, those losses were due to some tough competition. He was knocked out by Kevin Holland in April, but in other losses, he dropped split decisions to Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira. Before that, he was knocked out by Li Jingliang after returning from a long layoff. Ponzinibbio lands 4.90 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 41%. His striking defense is decent at 61%, but he absorbs 4.67 significant strikes per minute on average. He has a 60% takedown defense as well.
His opponent, Salikhov, lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is 51%. He absorbs 2.94 significant strikes per minute and has a 73% takedown defense. He is on a two-fight skid, losing to Nicolas Dalby and most recently to Randy Brown. Salikhov went 20 professional fights without getting knocked out, but has been knocked out twice in his last four bouts.
This fight seems likely to be almost entirely contested on the feet. Salikhov might have advantages in speed and technique in this matchup, but his cardio is much worse than Ponzinibbio's. That might be one of the reasons Ponzinibbio is the favorite in this bout. Salikhov got tired in his bout against Dalby and was completely overwhelmed by Brown in February as he got knocked out in the first.
With the elevation playing a part, I expect them both to get tired quickly. Both fighters have knockout power and their chins are not what they used to be. With that being said, seeing Salikhov's lack of durability and cardio in his last few fights is enough to swing me in Ponzinibbio's direction. I predict that Ponzinibbio will land a knockout blow in the first or the second round.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Drew Dober, $8,200 - vs. Jean Silva
Lightweight knockout artists Drew Dober and Jean Silva are scheduled to collide this Saturday. This should be a banger as Silva is coming off the quick knockout of Charles Jourdain, and Dober is coming off the war he had with Renato Moicano in February. Initially, Dober was scheduled to face off against Mike Davis, but Davis was forced to pull out due to a torn bicep. Now, the UFC veteran welcomes Silva to the lightweight division just two weeks after Silva scored a knockout win at UFC 303.
Dober has gone 13-9-0-1 in his UFC career since 2013. He's won four out of his last six fights, and all four of those wins came by way of knockout. Despite losing his last fight to Moicano, Dober did have his moments in that fight. Dober is tied with former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history (nine). This fight has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. With 15 wins by knockout, Dober has demonstrated his ability to end fights decisively.
Just like Dober, Silva is known for his powerful striking and finishing ability. Just two weeks after a notable victory over Charles Jourdain at UFC 303, Silva is stepping up not only in competition but also in weight class to face Dober at UFC Denver. After earning a unanimous decision against the then-undefeated Kevin Vallejos on DWCS, Silva has continued to shine. Since signing with the UFC, Silva has defeated Jourdain and Westin Wilson. It will be interesting to see how Silva's cardio is going to hold up because he is set to fight at a high elevation.
I'm going for Dober here as he is the more natural lightweight with more experience both going deep in fights and against tough competition. Taking Dober on short notice seems like a tall task. This fight boils down to two factors: It's at elevation, and Silva is moving up a weight class on short notice while Dober trains at elevation and is, as some might say, a big lightweight. I'm picking Dober to win this fight by a third-round knockout.
