DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

Fans of combat sports can rejoice once again as it is finally time for another UFC event. After a week-long break, the UFC returns to action on Saturday with UFC 310 in Las Vegas, Nev., at T-Mobile Arena. The UFC 310 card is filled with intriguing matchups and storylines to close out 2024. In the main event of UFC 310, Alexandre Pantoja will defend his flyweight championship against Kai Asakura, who is making his UFC debut. Originally, Belal Muhammad was supposed to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov in the main event, but Muhammad was forced to pull out because of a bone infection in his foot. Now, Rakhmonov takes on Ian Machado Garry in the co-main event.

Also on the main card, former interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane goes up against Alexander Volkov in a rematch, Bryce Mitchell meets Kron Gracie at featherweight, and Nate Landwehr takes on Dooho Choi. On the prelims, just to name a few intriguing matchups, Anthony Smith is set to face off against Dominick Reyes, Movsar Evloev takes on Aljamain Sterling, and Randy Brown and Bryan Battle are scheduled for a welterweight matchup.

In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura on 12/7/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!

DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks 

Shavkat Rakhmonov, $9,200 - vs. Ian Machado Garry

The UFC 310 co-main event on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas features a welterweight clash and a title eliminator bout between undefeated contenders Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry. Garry was supposed to fight Joaquin Buckley on UFC on ESPN 63 but stepped in for an injured Belal Muhammad, who was scheduled for his first title defense against Rakhmonov.

A welterweight battle you won't want to miss 😳@Rakhmonov1994 vs @IanGarryMMA

[ #UFC310 is LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | SAT | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/tnHFFWskeB

— UFC (@ufc) December 6, 2024

Rakhmonov was last seen in action back in December 2023 at UFC 296, where he defeated former title challenger Stephen Thompson via second-round rear naked choke. He’s a perfect 18-0 and has finished every opponent he's faced in his decade-long professional fighting career (10 by submission and eight by knockout/TKO). Since signing with the UFC in 2020, Rakhmonov has fought six times, with five of his six UFC wins ending via submission.

Garry enters this fight with an undefeated record of 15-0, with eight of his wins coming inside the Octagon, five by decision and three by knockout/TKO. Aside from getting dropped by Kenan Song at UFC 285, Garry has looked almost flawless in picking opponents apart from a distance. Garry was last seen in action at UFC 303, where he defeated Michael Page by unanimous decision.

Rakhmonov averages 4.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 2.41 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. When it comes to his wrestling, Rakhmonov averages 1.49 takedowns every 15 minutes, with his takedown accuracy being 29% and a takedown defense of 100%.

Garry enters this fight as a 3-to-1 underdog. He averages 5.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Garry absorbs 3.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Garry is averaging 0.77 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 55% and his takedown defense is 69%.

Garry is a better striker than Rakhmonov but that's it, Rakhmonov is better everywhere else. They might keep this fight standing and exchange for a round or two, but I see Rakhmonov taking over after that. His strength and grappling are going to be too much for Garry and I expect him to crumble under pressure later on.

My prediction is that Rakhmonov will get this done by a third- or fourth-round submission.

DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks 

Ciryl Gane, $9,000 - vs. Alexander Volkov

Former UFC interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane is scheduled for a rematch with Alexander Volkov on the main card of UFC 310 on Saturday. With the way things are in the heavyweight division, a winner of this fight just might become the next title challenger and be the next in line to face the winner of a potential fight between Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall.

In his previous fight against Volkov, Gane’s footwork and kickboxing allowed him to pick apart the Russian fighter for a full five rounds. Gane regained his ground following a loss against former light heavyweight champion and current heavyweight champion Jon Jones with a dominant performance against Serghei Spivac that ended by a second-round TKO. Before losing to Jones, Gane defeated Tai Tuivasa via third-round TKO.

Volkov, on the other hand, has been on a tear and has won four fights in a row. He was last seen in action at UFC Saudi Arabia, where he defeated Sergei Pavlovich via unanimous decision. Since his first fight with Gane, where Gane claimed a dominant unanimous decision victory, Volkov has only lost once and that was to current interim champion Tom Aspinall.

Gane has a striking accuracy of 60% and he's averaging 5.49 significant strikes per minute. His striking defense rate is 63% and he absorbs 2.19 significant strikes per minute. Regarding his grappling, Gane is averaging 0.58 takedowns every 15 minutes with a success rate of 21% and 0.5 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown defense is 50%.

Volkov lands an average of 5.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 57%. He absorbs 3.00 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. Volkov lands 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 63% and a takedown defense of 73%. When it comes to his grappling, Volkov is averaging 0.45 takedowns every 15 minutes and 0.2 submission attempts during the same period.

Gane's a crafty, fast, and mobile striker, capable of picking his opponent apart, and he has knockout power in both hands. The difference between Gane and Volkov's first meeting and this fight is that their first fight was scheduled for five rounds; however, this fight is scheduled for three rounds. With that being mentioned, I don't think it's going to make a huge difference. I see Gane picking Volkov apart again and winning via unanimous decision.

DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks 

Dominick Reyes, $9,100 - vs. Anthony Smith

Former title challengers Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith are scheduled to headline UFC 310 prelims on Saturday. Reyes was last seen in action at UFC on ESPN 57, where he got back in the win column by defeating Dustin Jacoby by a first-round knockout. In contrast, Smith has lost his last fight to Roman Dolidze via unanimous decision and will look to get back in the win column.

Reyes took some much-needed time off (19 months to be exact) and has started 2024 by defeating Jacoby via first-round knockout. It was a much-needed win that got Reyes back in the win column after losing four straight fights. Before those four losses, Reyes was undefeated and on a tear, winning 12 fights in a row.

His 12-fight winning streak was snapped by Jon Jones in a controversial fight that most MMA fans thought Reyes won. After losing to Jones, Reyes went on to lose to two more former titleholders, Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka, with Ryan Spann being his fourth consecutive loss.

Since his title fight with Jones, where he got outclassed, Smith’s career has been up and down. After his bout with Jones, Smith has gone 6-6, with one three-fight winning streak. Smith is in dire need of a victory, as he's gone 2-4 in his last six fights, including a one-sided decision loss to short-notice replacement Dolidze at UFC 303. This will be Smith's 24th Octagon appearance.

Reyes enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-4 and he is 7-4 in the UFC. He averages 4.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Reyes absorbs 3.75 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 48%. When it comes to grappling, he's averaging 0.35 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 28% and his takedown defense is 80%.

Smith enters this fight with an MMA record of 37-20 and is 13-10 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.24 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Smith is absorbing 4.60 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 46%. When it comes to his grappling, Smith is averaging 0.46 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 26% and a takedown defense of 50%.

This is a tough fight to predict. Both fighters are out of their prime and haven't been in the best form as of late. Smith was once known as a guy who takes massive amounts of damage and still keeps going, but as of late, it's evident that he's not as durable as he once was. Reyes looked great in his last fight and it seems the long layoff has helped him get back on track. I'm picking Reyes to win this by a third-round TKO.

More DFS Analysis & Lineup Picks