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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. on 10/5/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC is back for its yearly trip to Salt Lake City, Utah, at Delta Center. The event will mark the promotion's fourth visit to Salt Lake City and first since UFC 291 in July 2023. The UFC 307 is headlined by the promotion's current most active champion Alex Pereira, who looks to defend his title for a third time this year against Khalil Rountree Jr. The co-main event sees another title on the line as Raquel Pennington takes on former women's bantamweight champion Julianna Pena.
Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista are scheduled to compete on the main card of UFC 307. Kayla Harrison and Ketlen Vieira are scheduled for a main card bout that is likely going to be a title eliminator. Also, Kevin Holland and Roman Dolidze are set for a three-round middleweight bout.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. on 10/5/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Pereira, $9,600 - vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Get ready for a thrilling light heavyweight showdown as former middleweight champion and current light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira faces the surging Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307.
Since leaving the middleweight division, "Poatan" is a perfect 4-0, while "The War Horse" is riding a five-fight winning streak, including a devastating knockout of former title challenger Anthony Smith in his last bout. This promises to be one of the most exciting striking matchups in recent UFC history.
He's shined when the lights have been brightest 🫡@AlexPereiraUFC aims to add to his legacy at #UFC307!
[ Live on @ESPNPlus PPV | Saturday | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/jPlrTJZ0Yj
— UFC (@ufc) October 3, 2024
Pereira is arguably the most terrifying man in the sport right now. Since joining UFC in 2021, Pereira has gone 8-1, losing only to his rival, former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, in his last middleweight bout. Pereira is undefeated at light heavyweight, having defeated Jan Blachowicz, Jamahal Hill, and Jiri Prochazka twice. Just recently, he fought in a rematch against Prochazka in the main event of UFC 303 where he brutally stopped Prochazka via a second-round head kick.
When this fight was announced, most MMA fans were surprised, expecting Magomed Ankalaev will be the next in line for a title shot. Instead, eight-ranked Rountree got the call from the UFC to be the next title challenger.
Over the years, Rountree has evolved from a brawler into a refined Muay Thai practitioner, and it seems to be working for him, as he's won five fights in a row, four via knockout/TKO. During this stretch, he defeated Modestas Bukauskas, Karl Roberson, Dustin Jacoby, Chris Daukaus, and most recently, Anthony Smith to earn this title shot with Pereira.
Pereira will enjoy three inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach advantage against Rountree. It’s unlikely that this fight will go to the ground as Pereira has attempted 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Rountree doesn’t try any. With both fighters being strikers (with Rountree having a Muay Thai style, and Pereira being a former kickboxing champion) and both fighters possessing scary knockout power, you can count that this bout will not go the distance.
Pereira lands 5.23 significant strikes per minute with his striking accuracy being at 63%. He's absorbing 3.51 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. On the other hand, Rountree lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute with his striking accuracy being at 39%. He's absorbing 4.18 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 50%.
Pereira is a considerable favorite in this match for a reason. He is on another level with the striking and has been more active against tougher competition than Rountree, who has some tough losses on his record, including Johnny Walker, Ion Cutelaba, and Marcin Prachnio.
Rountree has looked better of late, but the reason I don't see him winning is that I can't see Rountree finding a way to close the distance without getting knocked out with Pereira's left hook. Rountree has said that he's not going to shoot for a takedown, so that's one more reason I think Pereira wins this.
My prediction is that Pereira is going to knock Rountree out within two rounds.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jose Aldo, $7,700 - vs. Mario Bautista
Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista are set to go to war this weekend at UFC 307 inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. This bout was originally slated for the preliminary card but has now been elevated to the pay-per-view main card, adding a new layer of excitement to the event.
This is a worthy match because it presents a turning point in Aldo's and Bautista's professional journeys.
Aldo took a long break from MMA after suffering a defeat to current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili, but he returned to the Octagon in May, picking up a decision win over the favored Jonathan Martinez.
Aldo, who is known for his brutal leg kicks and precise striking, aims to prove that he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level and possibly go for another title shot. Since moving down a weight class, against the odds, the 38-year-old Aldo has excelled in the bantamweight division, and he has won four of his last five fights.
His opponent, Bautista, has won six in a row dating back to February 2022, including three via submission, so he's earned a step up in competition. Bautista is coming off a unanimous decision over Ricky Simon, which has to go down as the best win of his career. His grappling is his strength as he chucks in a higher average of 2.25 takedowns in 15 minutes and an average submission of 1.0.
Aldo lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute with his striking accuracy being at 46%. He's absorbing 3.73 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. He averages 0.51 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and his takedown accuracy is at 53%, with his takedown defense being 91%.
On the other hand, Bautista lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute with his striking accuracy being at 48%. He's absorbing 3.99 strikes per minute with his striking defense being at 53%. He averages 2.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and his takedown accuracy is at 44%. His takedown defense is at 66%.
Bautista is the more likely of the two to wrestle and Aldo is famous for his takedown defense but Aldo has always possessed incredible takedown defense. However, Bautista cannot win this fight without exchanging with Aldo. On the feet, Aldo is still among the best strikers in the world while Bautista is considered a brawler when it comes to his striking ability.
This is a massive step up for Bautista, whose last two opponents have combined for five straight losses. Even though he's an underdog, I'm still going with Aldo, who looks like he hasn't missed a step since retiring. My prediction is that Aldo will find a way to win this via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kayla Harrison, $9,800 - vs. Ketlen Vieira
On the main card of UFC 307, Kayla Harrison takes on Ketlen Vieira in a three-round bantamweight matchup. Harrison, a former two-time Olympic gold medalist judoka, made her UFC debut in her last bout at UFC 300 where she defeated former women's bantamweight champion Holly Holm via second-round rear-naked choke.
Her opponent, Vieira, was last seen in action at UFC Fight Night 224 where she defeated Pannie Kianzad via unanimous decision. The winner of this matchup will likely be next in line to fight for the title.
Harrison is one of the best female fighters in the world. Her pro MMA record is 17-1 and her only loss came in a $1,000,000 PFL championship fight against Larissa Pacheco where she lost via unanimous decision. In her last bout against Holm, it was evident that Holm had no answer for Harrison, who wrestled her to the mat and secured a submission.
Her opponent, Vieira, is 1-1 in her last two bouts. As stated before, Vieira defeated Kianzad in her last bout by a unanimous decision. Before that, Vieira lost to women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington via split decision. While in the UFC, she has beaten former title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara McMann and former bantamweight champions Miesha Tate and Holly Holm.
Vieira enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-3 and she is 8-3 in the UFC. She averages 3.04 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. Vieira absorbs 3.92 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. When it comes to grappling, she's averaging 1.51 takedowns every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 44% and her takedown defense is 92%.
Harrison averages 7.52 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 71%. Harrison has a striking defense of 83% and she absorbs 0.29 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 83%. Her grappling is elite, as she's averaging 4.42 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.2 submission attempts. She has a takedown defense of 100% and her takedown accuracy is 40%.
Vieira is a black belt in Judo, but Harrison has her outmatched in that aspect. Harrison's judo and wrestling are on such a high level that I don't see Vieira keeping this fight standing up. Vieira's path to victory would be to stuff Harrison's takedown attempts and beat her up on the feet, but I just don't see that happening.
Harrison is just too strong and too technical when it comes to grappling and I don't think Vieira will be able to pull an upset. I think Vieira will be able to survive but not win the fight as I predict that Harrison will win this bout via unanimous decision.
