RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili on 9/14/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC will look to put on a spectacular show as UFC 306 goes down this Saturday night from Las Vegas’s famous Sphere. UFC 306 will mark the promotion's second "Noche UFC" edition celebrating Mexican Independence Day after holding the Noche UFC event headlined by Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko the year prior. We have a stacked card in front of us and Dana White stated that the event will tell the history of combat in Mexico from the past to the future.
We’ve got two title fights on the top of the card, as UFC bantamweight champ Sean O'Malley is set to defend his title against Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili, who is on a 10-fight win streak. In the co-main event, we have a title bout and a third fight between flyweight queen Alexa Grasso and a former champ, Valentina Shevchenko. Brian Ortega, Diego Lopes, Ronaldo Rodriguez, and Ode' Osbourne are involved in two main-card bangers as well.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili on 9/14/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sean O'Malley, $8,500 - vs. Merab Dvalishvili
In his last bout at UFC 299 this past March, Sean O'Malley defended his title for the first time by defeating Marlon Vera by unanimous decision. Defeating Vera, who accounts for O’Malley’s lone defeat, O'Malley earned his seventh consecutive victory and exacted revenge against a man who landed O'Malley his first and only loss.
Before that, O'Malley claimed the title by defeating former bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili's friend and training partner, Aljamain Sterling.
Noche de 👊✨#UFC306 | @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC pic.twitter.com/goohGcdAGT
— UFC (@ufc) September 12, 2024
“Suga” is a fast, long, and strong sniper who thrives at a distance and his boxing is something to marvel at as his striking leads the division. He averages 7.63 significant strikes per minute, which is the third-highest number among active male fighters in all of the UFC.
His striking accuracy is at 61% and he’s got a knockout-to-win ratio of 66.66%. Except for the no-contest, O’Malley has outlanded opponents in 10 of his 11 UFC fights.
Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-4 and is 10-2 in the UFC. Starting 0-2 in the UFC, Dvalishvili put his foot on the pedal and is now on a 10-fight winning streak, three of those being against former UFC champions Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo.
He has just one finish in that streak, but his wrestling-heavy game plan and cardio are what makes him so tough to figure out.
Although Dvalishvili has some decent striking skills, he's mostly famous for his resilience, wrestling, and incredible gas tank. He's one of the best wrestlers in the division, if not the best. He lands a ridiculous 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 80%.
In the standup department, Dvalishvili is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 2.37 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%.
It could be said that the weakest aspect of O'Malley's game is his wrestling, but he hasn't been tested enough in that department yet. He got taken town six times in his fight against Yan but that was the only fight in his last six where O'Malley has given up a takedown.
While Dvalishvili is not your everyday grappler, with his relentless pace, he is also a guy who gets r0cked and hit hard in fights, and O'Malley hits harder than any bantamweight. With recent news showing Dvalishvili suffering a cut in camp and allegedly having a staph infection, I'm going with O'Malley to win this one via TKO.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Diego Lopes, $8,700 - vs. Brian Ortega
The third fight on the main card at UFC 306 features a featherweight bout between Diego Lopes and former title challenger, Brian Ortega. Originally, this fight was supposed to happen at the UFC 303 co-main event in June, at International Fight Week.
Both Ortega and Lopes were called on short notice in an attempt to boost the card after the Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler main event was canceled, but Ortega was forced to pull out of the fight due to illness just a couple of hours before the fight.
Fan-favorite Lopes enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-6 and is 4-2 in the UFC. He's on a four-fight winning streak, three of which ended in Round 1. Lopes was last seen in action at UFC 303 where he defeated Dan Ige in a catchweight bout in which both fighters were stepping up on short notice.
A fight with third-ranked Ortega is without a significant step up in competition for Lopes. Lopes could slip into a No. 1 contender fight should he walk out of UFC 306 victorious.
Lopes is averaging 3.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. His striking defense is at 39% and he is absorbing 4.08 strikes per minute. In terms of his grappling, Lopes averages 0.33 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 25%. His takedown defense is 46%.
Ortega was last seen in action back in February at UFC Mexico City where he got back in the win column by defeating former interim featherweight champ, Yair Rodriguez. He has fought only three times since 2020.
Ortega is known as a brawler who has world-class jiu-jitsu skills. He is averaging 4.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. Ortega is absorbing 6.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. In terms of grappling, Ortega has a takedown accuracy of 27% and a takedown defense of 57%.
Both are solid in the standup department and both have world-class jiu-jitsu skills. Lopez is younger, has been more active, and is more effective with pressuring his opponents while Ortega has absorbed a lot of damage over the years and hasn't been active that much.
With that and their high-level grappling, I see this being a striking battle and I believe Lopes is going to be too much for Ortega, who doesn't seem to have the same hunger he once had. My prediction is that Lopes wins this via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ronaldo Rodriguez, $8,600 - vs. Ode' Osbourne
Opening up the main card of 306 is a flyweight bout between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode' Osbourne. Rodriguez made his UFC debut this past February at UFC Mexico City against Denys Bondar and secured a slick second-round submission win.
On the other hand, Osbourne is in dire need of a victory on Saturday night. He has been stopped in three of his last four fights, and his only victory in those four fights was a split decision over Charles Johnson. If he can’t get past Rodriguez, his UFC career could come to a close.
Rodriguez comes into this fight riding a six-fight winning streak with each of his last three wins coming inside the distance. He’s known for his well-rounded skill set, with a mix of knockout power and submission ability. Rodriguez has also displayed elite durability thus far, as he hasn't been finished in 18 professional bouts.
On the other hand, Osbourne hasn't been in the best form as of late. Beyond a few knockout losses earlier in Osbourne’s UFC career, his last two fights have seen him get taken down and submitted. He was submitted by Jafel Filho in the first round in March and by Assu Almabayev in the second round last August.
Rodriguez has a striking accuracy of 41% and he lands 2.00 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is at 41%. Rodriguez is absorbing 3.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 63%.
Osbourne is averaging 3.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38% with his striking defense being at 44%. He's averaging 1.27 takedowns every 15 minutes, with his takedown accuracy being at 27% and a takedown defense being 64%.
This should be a great scrap to kick off the main card of UFC 306. While it's true that Rodriguez had only one UFC fight, Osbourne has been in poor form. I see Osbourne looking good early on, using his speed to keep Rodriguez at a distance.
Then, later on, I see Rodriguez taking Osbourne down and submitting him. Rodriguez's edge lies in the fact that striking is Osbourne's only significant strength. I predict Rodriguez will submit Osbourne inside two rounds.
