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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 on 08/20/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
With this weekend's event making the second time the UFC visits Salt Lake City, I guess it also made sense for Dana to schedule a revenge fight and second-time meeting between the two main-even fighters, doesn't it? That's why we're getting a re-do here between welter-Honcho Kamaru and aspiring-Welter Leon for the second time in... forever! Because when these two first met inside an Octagon we were still squeezing the last days of 2015, Usman was just making his UFC debut, and Edwards had only fought three times prior to that. Just imagine!
The rest of the main card, while not featuring any other title fight this weekend, comes with some interesting battles and hey, it's a two-week hiatus ahead of us so you better not take a single fight for granted, enjoy them when they come, and go from there, folks. And I mean, it's not that the likes of Paulo Costa, Jose Aldo, Luke Rockhold, and Merab Dvalishvili make for bad shows, do they!? So let's get those breakdowns popping.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 on 08/20/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kamaru Usman (C), $9100 - vs. Leon Edwards
If you don't recall the first fight between these two I wouldn't blame you. Yes, this is a re-do. Also yes, this is a kinda-forced "part two" as the first bout between Usman and Edwards took place approaching Christmas of 2015 when 1) Usman was debuting in the UFC and 2) Edwards had just fought three times before and was still trying to find his place in the promo.
You know the recent history and how these two developed their careers from that meeting on. Usman defeated Edwards and everybody that dared challenge him after that; Edwards did pretty much the same winning-out his next-eight fights, getting an NC after that, and lastly defeating Nate Diaz in June to make it nine Ws in 10 fights.
As great as Edwards has been--and there's no denying that--he's still to catch up to Usman's greatness and there is no point in arguing against that either. Usman is a perfect 13-0 in the UFC, which is just absolutely ridiculous at this point and doesn't seem to be close to stopping. Usman went from facing fighters in the 30-to-70 DKFP per fight percentile in the first six fights he took on, but he's stepped up the level of late with fights against bona fide performers such as Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns--KO'ing both of them too, just in case.
Edwards has been on a similarly ascendant part, with five straight fights against top-fifth-percentile fighters in that category, so there's that. Both men can do it on both striking and grappling, but Usman is clearly the better striker and one could argue grappler too--although on a clear lower volume, of course. Edwards got Usman to a decision when they first met but he got already dominated (93 DKFP for Usman, 13 for Edwards...) Both fighters have evolved immeasurably since 2015, for sure, but I see no scenario in which Usman drops the belt next Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paulo Costa, $8700 - vs. Luke Rockhold
It's actually very interesting to think that Costa is fighting for the eighth time in his UFC tenure while having landed in it relatively recently, while Luke Rockhold will be fighting for just his 11th even though it feels like he's been around since 2001. The truth is that Rockhold is coming off a three-year hiatus as he last fought against Jan Blachowicz in July 2019 having debuted all the way back in May 2013 (against Vitor Belfort!).
Rockhold met his peak back in the 2014-to-2015 span when he won five fights straight, the last one in which he got crowned MW champ after defeating Chris Weidman in Dec. 2015. After that, he had a couple more title fights but he dropped both (his defense first, a shot at re-taking the belt from Yoel Romero later). By then Rockhold was a KO-or-get-KO'd fighter, but in reality he's never reached the judges decision either winning or losing by KO/submission every time he's been inside an Octagon.
Paulo Costa has been a similar fighter in terms of outcomes. Outside of a couple of decisions (one win, one loss) he's always KO his foes (four times) or gotten KO'd himself (once), without never ever reaching the third round of those early-finish fights. Costa doesn't give a damn about takedowns and/or grappling while Rockhold at least tried back in the day--though he was far from a legitimate threat/chaser of TDs.
Costa might have lost two consecutive fights, yes, but one he did against impossibly-great Israel Adesanya, and the latter defeat came in Oct. 2021 against Marvin Vettori when Costa was still good for a 163-of-260 on SS and also went one-for-one on TDs for a tally of 86.5 DKFP even in defeat. Another chalky pick, but it's Costa all day.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Merab Dvalishvili, $8100 - vs. Jose Aldo
Aldo's first 9 UFC fights: 8-1 record with all of them being title fights. Aldo's last 10 UFC fights: 5-5 record with three of them being title fights--all losses. Quite the split, isn't it? Aldo was a ridiculous performer from 2011 when he debuted by lifting the belt all the way up to the day he lost in 13 seconds to Conor McGregor in Dec. 2015.
After that point, Aldo entered a very dark space and had to rebuild his cache after losing two title fights to Max Holloway and then three consecutive bouts in the May-2019-to-July 2020-span. The coin has flipped now for Aldo, though, as he's won three consecutive fights (all of them via decision) in the past year and a half and hasn't lost since he did in a title fight against Petr Yan back in July 2020.
Dvalishvili, on the other hand, debuted to the tune of a couple of defeats but he's been perfect after that. He's boasting a seven-fight winning streak with the latest victory coming last September, almost a year ago, via KO (for the first in his career). Merab's the total opposite type of fighter to Aldo, so this could turn into a very interesting tactical battle of approaches here.
Merab has gone for a total of 139 (!!!) takedowns over his nine UFC fights succeeding 63 times for a 45% rate. That's absolutely insane both in terms of volume and success rate. Aldo has never chased takedowns, always relying on his striking. Aldo is not as active these days as he was back in the day, and Dvalishvili should edge him there in terms of attempts--but not landing rate.
Anyway, Dvalishvili's floor is staggeringly high if only because of all of those fantasy points coming his way via takedowns and grappling. It has to go very wrong for him to not reach some 60+ DKFP even if he ends up losing this fight, which makes me favor him for fantasy contests like this weekend's easily.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexander Romanov, $9000 - vs. Marcin Tybura
Even if you split Tybura's hella-long career into two parts, you still come out with a very recent couple of slices. That's because even though Tybura has fought 15 times in the UFC already he has done so only from 2016 on packing all those 15 fights in a six-year span, almost at a three-per-year pace. Focusing on his most recent ones (from 2020 included on) we find a ridiculous 5-1 fighter in Tybura with the only blemish being his most recent loss to Alexander Volkov last October.
When it comes to Romanov, though, I can't throw any negatives his way. There haven't just been there, not even one. Romanov is 5-0 since debuting in Sep. 2020 and he's been as dominant as it gets, as simple as that. Barring his 56-DKFP outing against Juan Espino, Romanov has finished with at least 109 DKFP in all other four of his fights. Seriously. The competition hasn't been great, though, as none of the fighters he's faced other than Espino (91st) rank even inside the 70th percentile in DKFP.
Tybura is active on the takedown front but not overwhelming, thus the high success rates. Romanov, on the other hand, lives for takedowns and he actually thrives at them. He's chased a total of 23 takedowns over five fights, and most impressive he's succeded at landing 16 of them for a supersolid 69% rate. There is no one stopping that, let alone mimicking it.
While Tybura is a massive threat on both the KO and sub departments, the truth is that Romanov has already won fights in those two ways too. Again, and as good as Tybura has been of late, I see no big-enough flaw in his game to bet against him and not put him in your lineup if you have to pick between one of these two.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tyson Pedro, $9500 - vs. Harry Hunsucker
I guess the underlying thinking about scheduling this fight for a "numbered" UFC meeting, let alone putting it on the main card, has to do with the all-goes-out profile of the two fighters involved more than anything else. Pedro and Hunsucker have combined for eight early-finish outcomes in their shared nine fights in the UFC. You know this is going to be a KO/Sub victory for one, and a very forgettable night for the other.
Hunsucker is a putrid 0-2 fighter, already older than Pedro, and a man who has eaten two KOs (both of them in under two minutes) in the UFC. Sheesh. Pedro spent nearly three and a half years outside of the circuit, but at least he came back last April to KO Ike Villanueva in the first round of their meeting. None of these two is going to pull off a takedown, nor land more than 50 significant strikes basically because they won't keep the fight going for that long.
If you can, avoid any of these two. If you can't, bet on Pedro because Hunsucker has been attrocious. That's it.
