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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 on 11/6/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
I don't think I need to remember you about what happened the last time we had a numbered UFC event. I mean, I could do so, but it's not that we have had a lot of time to forget about it: it took place last Saturday and, adding wood to our memory fire it was staged in Abu Dhabi (UAE) so you probably remember about it because the scheduling and fight times were all screwed and flipped from the average ones that take place in the USA.
This weekend we're back on familiar ground as the UFC hits Madison Square Garden, NY, for UFC 268... and let me tell you, this card is packed. Two title fights adorn the headlines with Kamaru Usman and Rose Namajunas defending their belts against known foes, as both fighters will be taking on their rivals for a second time. Will this be the weekend in which Colby Covington and Zhang Weili finally grab that piece of gold? I don't know, but I can't wait for the moment we have all of the results in the history books. This looks like an exciting one, folks.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 on 11/6/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kamaru Usman, $9300 - vs. Colby Covington
It took fellow-Nigerian Israel Adesanya a jump-up in weight classes to experience his first UFC loss. Kamaru Usman has yet to meet that fate as he's entering the Octagon for the 13th time this Saturday having won the prior 12 fights including the one that got him to the belt, and four successful defenses after that one (all five title fights happening from 2019 on). Not that Covington is short on accolades, either, as he has only lost twice in his 13-fight career and he already held the belt himself in 2018 after defeating Rafael Dos Anjos back then.
Sadly for Covington, this is about revenge. One of those two losses was, as you probably know, a hurting one against reigning champ Usman as Covington got KO'd 50 seconds away from hearing the final buzzer. Covington rebounded from that fight with a KO of Tyron Woodley, but that happened more than a year ago. Usman has two fights and wins just in 2021 (both KOs) facing tough outings in Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal. The dominance is so high that I just can't bet on Covington, honestly. Covington looked good in defeat to Usman their last time together (71.5 DKFP), so that might make for a stack, but he's not leaving MSG with the belt around his waist come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rose Namajunas, $8200 - vs. Zhang Weili
It's quite impressive that Rose Namajunas has only 10 fights in the UFC circuit, yet 40% of those are title fights. Even better, though, is the fact that she won three out of those four only losing to Jessica Andrade (who she later defeated, albeit not on a title fight anymore). And if you think that's impressive, then Weili's track record is even better as she has fought six times and half of them (!) for the golden stripe, winning twice of those but getting rocked in 1:18 minutes by the very own Rose last April surrendering the WSW belt.
While Weili has never faced the same opponent to date, Rose is seemingly making a living off that type of thing. She went against Joanna Jedrzejczyk on back-to-back fights defeating her twice. She moved onto facing Jessica Andrade two times also, going 1-1, and she is now facing Weili for the second time in a row looking to keep what she snatched off her waist around six years ago. No-contest in their first affair with Rose needing just 5 SS landed to finish Zhang back then. Both fighters come with finishing prowess on either striking and/or grappling, but it's not that either attempts to bring fights to the mat adeptly. The champ stopped Weili with a statement W, and I'm betting on Rose to retain the title here even as good as Weili has looked prior to their first bout.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Justin Gaethje, $8900 - vs. Michael Chandler
If you just look at Michael Chandler's UFC fighting sample, well, let's say he doesn't look that great and as a real threat to Justin Gaethje. Chandler has just two bouts under the promo's banner, and he's 1-1 at it having lost the latest one. That being said, that loss came already in a title fight, so you get an idea of this man's abilities to get awarded that chance after just one fight (KO victory) in the UFC after becoming Bellator's LW champion for the last time in 2018. Gaethje himself got a W facing Tony Ferguson in an interim title fight, but he couldn't ultimately top the real champ Khabib in the latter's last fight ever.
Putting together these two's fight logs (nine bouts combined) the results are ridiculous: 8 KOs and 1 submission (taking both wins and losses into account) are what these two have done in the UFC. Gaethje is 4-3 (4 KO wins, 2 KO defeats, 1 Sub loss) while Chandler won and lost one each via KO. In other words: expect a short fight here this Saturday, folks. Only once (Gaethje vs. Ferguson) have this pair gone past the second round since August 2018. This is the type of fantasy fight I would avoid at all costs because one fighter will get his 100+ FP while the other will inevitably put up a resounding dud. Fade the two of Gaethje and Chandler, seriously. And if you go with one, bank on the latest "champion" in Gathje after Chandler could do nothing against Charles Oliveira last May.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Billy Quarantillo, $7200 - vs. Shane Burgos
Shane had quite a start to his UFC tenure with only one loss (KO) in his first seven fights spanning from Dec. 2016 to Nov. 2019... only to fall two times in a row following that fantastic run, both of those losses taking place in the past year and change. Quarantillo, while having dropped one fight himself last December, is at a 4-1 positive record and comes off KO'ing Gabriel Benited his last time out this past July. None of these two have title-fight experience, but they're aiming to reach those heights sooner rather than later.
There are plenty of similarities between these two fighters when it comes to striking, as both throw volume in bunches (127 SSA per fight for Billy, 180 for Shane) but there is a striking (pun intended) difference in grappling prowess: Quarantillo has attempted at least one TD in all five fights he's disputed to date, and 3+ in all last four; Burgos is 2-for-2 but that happened more than four years ago. Quarantillo is great at pulling those attempts off and success at it, and while both fighters have one submission victory each, Quarantillo is the higher menace on that front. Gotta go with the underdog in Billy for this one.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Frankie Edgar, $7400 - vs. Marlon Vera
Do you like vets? Then you're in for a treat. As many as 41 times have we seen these two get inside a UFC Octagon since Frankie started doing it all the way back in February of 2007 as part of the UFC 67 card. That's some time ago right there. Vera, while not that far in the history books, debuted in 2014 back on UFC 180. These two have been on the downside of their careers of late, obviously, but Frankie has looked worse than Vera all things considered, and has many fewer fights than Vera of late.
Edgar enters this fight with a 2-3 negative record since the start of 2018 and has fought just once (W) since Dec. 2019. Vera is a nice 5-2 fighter since the start of 2019, and went on to fight foes three times in 2020 and once in 2021 (last June; decision W against Davey Grant). Edgar got KO'd in two of his last five fights while Vera has never gotten rocked with both recent defeats earned via judges' decisions. It's also more than four years since Edgar's last KO victory, while Vera dropped O'Malley in Aug. 2020. Edgar brings an all-round package including volume striking and some takedown-prowess (clearly past his best days, though), while Vera comes shorter on both fronts in comparison. While Edgar has looked weak of late, he's a much more complete fighter and should edge Vera when all is said and done, assuming both made it to the final bell.
