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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega on 09/25/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After three straight "Fight Nights" taking place in the UFC circuit, we're back at the heavy stuff. It's been more than a month since the last "numbered" event (UFC 265) took place and let us enjoy five early finishes with two submissions and three knockouts. That's the thing we love around here, so you get our anxiety about the upcoming UFC 266 scheduled to take place this weekend in Las Vegas with two belts on the line to put the MMA cherry on top.
And we'll have a fantastic mixture of everything come Saturday. I'm dead serious. Other than the FW and the W'FW traps defended by Alexander Volkanovski and Valentina Shevchenko respectively we'll get to watch a couple of brawlers doing it in Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler, two unstoppable forces of nature in HW Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and a couple of ladies opening the main card in Jessica Andrade and Cynthia Calvillo. That's what we're talking about folks. I was missing these numbered things too much, but they're truly back!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega on 09/25/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brian Ortega, $7600 - vs. Alexander Volkanovski (C)
Before Alexander Volkanovski had a chance at the golden strap, it was Brian Ortega who first fought Max Holloway for the right to hold it. Ortega, back in Dec. 2018, got knocked out by Holloway and thus dropped his one and only chance at the title up to that point in his career. He's now facing the boy who defeated his slasher in Volkanovski. Alex faced Holloway exactly one year later and this time the belt changed bellies. Volkanovski had a successful defense against the same Max in Jul. 2020, winning both matches via decision.
Volkanovski changed his approach facing Holloway, going for a massive amount of significant strikes (without forgetting the grappling, mind you). He went from averaging 127 per fight to 287 while still able to land 50%+ of those bombs. He couldn't do anything on the ground in the first matchup but put up a nicer 3-of-9 TD night in his latest fight. Ortega has only lost once in his career (that fight against Holloway) and he's also changed his style a bit with back-to-back fights attempting 10+ takedowns (landing 2.5 per) while launching 250+ SS per fight on average.
Ortega is a finisher by nature. He's defeated his foes early in six of his seven wins, though precisely that decision victory took place in his latest fight back on Oct. 2020. Volkanovski tends to go the distance and has yet to meet defeat with a perfect 9-0 in the UFC including 3 KOs. Ortega's second chance at a belt will see him get the crown this weekend. I'm buying the hype. And the salaries are so separated that Ortega looks like a bargain flier to take in DFS with reasonable chances of pulling off the upset.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Valentina Shevchenko (C), $9500 - vs. Lauren Murphy
Valentina is so great she made me think about this blurb and if I should straight skip it and move on to the next fight. Such is the unbalance she generates every time she steps into the Octagon... You see a chalky play, I see an obvious pick. Whether you like to pony up the monster price is up to you, but at least if you do you know you'll bag those tasty points--most probably with a few bonus early-finish DKFP sprinkled on top of everything.
Lauren Murphy will become the latest contender to fight Sheva for the belt come Saturday, and probably the latest loser against the reigning champ. Murphy is great, don't get it wrong. She's won five in a row, lands more than 45% of his attempted strikes, and launches more than 120 per fight pretty much every time she's out there--while getting the odd takedown too. But she's not a threat to Shevchenko. Sorry.
Valentina has been dealing with title-fight pressure for a long, experiencing it for the first time in Sep. 2017 and losing to Amanda Nunes (Sheva's lone two Ls have come from Nunes), but since then she's won six title bouts to date, three via decision, three via knockout. Make it seven come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nick Diaz, $xxxx- vs. Robbie Lawler
My dawg Nick Diaz is bad, folks. It's been six freaking years and a half since the last time we saw this man going at it. Obviously, after closing his UFC tenure with a draw (overturned result) against Silva, he was always coming back to right his wrongs and try to snatch one final W after losing his prior two fights to that D--both of them title fights in 2012 and 2013. Robbie, on the other hand, has stayed active since his title days (from Dec. 2014 to Jul. 2016) although he's currently riding a four-fight losing skid.
This fight is exciting as hell. These two are not going to hold crap at each other, and both have dropped more than a foe with resounding knockouts through their careers. Lawler is washed up and clearly past his peak. Nick Diaz is, well, a relic of the sport involved in too many weird and law-dodging stories to recount here. Anyway, it's been more than a lot of years for Diaz on the shelf, so I'd bet on Lawler getting back to the W column if only for a few months.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Curtis Blaydes, $9200 - vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Jairzinho is one of the most unique fighters I have seen through UFC's history. Four of his first five fights lasted a combined 1:52 minutes and the other one ended with Rozenstruik rocking Overeem four seconds shy of the final buzzer. Ngannou mollywhopped Jair in 20 seconds, and he's alternated wins and loses since then, getting a KO-victory his last time out against Sakai. Blaydes was very nicely positioned to become a real contender for the HW title putting four wins in a row until Derrick Lewis KO'd him on Feb. 2021 derailing his run. Other than that, only Francis Ngannou (twice) has been able to defeat Blaydes in his UFC tenure, but not since 2018.
This is your prototypical heavyweight affair. Jairzinho seems to only know how to win fights by rocking his opponents dropping them cold (six wins, all KOs) while Blaydes has reached the distance a few times but still has more KO wins (five) than judges-decided victories (four). I'm a first-tier Rozeinstruck stan. The guy just mesmerizes me, but the truth is that Blaydes is way more complete a fighter with both striking and grappling prowess (he put up a ridiculous 14-of-25 TD stat line in his last win) albeit a bit irregular. Give me Curtis to getting things right after his latest fight ended badly for him.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jessica Andrade, $9100 - vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Both women's fights in this event look rather chalky and unbalanced. This one is not like the other, though, mostly because there is no Valentina involved in it, but still. Jess is a mighty fighter. Sure thing, she dropped her latest bout to the very own Shevchenko, but Andrade has wins against the likes of Rose Namajunas, who she dropped in 7:58 to be crowned champ in 2019. Cynthia Calvillo, on the other hand, has yet to reach her first title fight (compared to Andrade's four such bouts to date) and her latest fight ended in a loss, taking a bit of appeal from her.
Since the start of 2019, though, Calvillo has been a much better fighter than in her early days. She's throwing 190 SS per fight, landing almost 50% of those, and pairing that striking with a nice enough 8-of-21 line in takedowns (39% success rate). Andrade hasn't heavily relied on taking down foes of late, attempting only five TDs in her past four fights while landing just a couple of them. Andrade just doesn't need too much to drop her opponents and she seems to always find a way to knock them out (her last three Ws came that way) though she's also getting KO'd herself in two of her last four. The opponents in those losses, though, were otherworldly and far from Calvillo's talent levels. Andrade getting back to her winning ways looks like the most likely outcome for Saturday's fight.
