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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 23: Holland vs. Vettori on 04/10/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After getting to watch Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou going against each other for the second time in their careers, with the HW belt on the line, we knew we would need to relax and drop our expectations a bit when it came to what was coming next. You don't get to experience such a war weekly, and in fact, that UFC 260 was so great that good Dana White gave us a two-week period to process what happened and rest a bit.
That downtime is over now, folks, and we're into this thing for a run of seven more consecutive events all the way up to May 22, when we'll hit another bump in the road in the shape of another two-week hiatus (if everything holds, obviously). This weekend event will be headlined by Kevin Holland and Marvin Vettori after Darren Till got injured and was forced out last week, making way for Holland to fight Vettori on super-short, 9-day notice. Talk about a careless, ruthless dude.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 23: Vettori vs. Holland on 04/10/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Holland, $6600 - vs. Marvin Vettori
Is the short preparation period (Kevin is fighting on a nine-day notice) going to affect Holland in this fight against Vettori? Maybe. Is that going to keep him from snatching the W? I'm not convinced that'd be the case. Holland dropped his last one back in March against Derek Brunson, but he was able to go the distance (five rounds) while he had won four of five fights in 2020, three of them via KO and the other one with the submission of Charlie Ontiveros.
Vettori, on the other hand, is on a three-fight winning streak that spans from July 2019 to June 2020 with no fights since then, meaning he's been off the octagon for almost a full year. Vettori is way less of a finisher--yes, he subbed his last foe, but he hadn't done so in six straight after debuting with a first-round submission in Aug. 2016.
Call me crazy, but for the absolutely crazy discount Holland represents, and his past, I'm betting on him even stepping into this thing just nine days before the bout takes place. Vettori is the mega-favorite, and it's not that you find dogs as doggy as Holland is here, but that's where I'm leading this Saturday. Watch Vettori kick 2021 off with an L.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sodiq Yusuff, $8500 - vs. Arnold Allen
Dawg. Oh, dawg. Do you know how many times have these two fought under the UFC banner? 11 times, that is. Do you know how many times have they ended on the winning side of things? Also 11 times. That's right. Neither Allen nor Yusuff have been defeated since they entered the circuit, with Allen sitting at 7-0 and Yusuff at 4-0. Allen is the mat-worker with two submissions to his name (the first one in 2015, though) while Yusuff is the cold knock-outer with two KOs in his career (from Dec. 2018 on).
These two are close in terms of salaries this weekend, and both have chances to get the W. That's a stupid breakdown, but it is what it is. The projections paint Yusuff as the winner, though the distance is nothing crazy. The thing moving the balance Yusuff's way, though, is his KO prowess and how he dropped two of his four opponents in less than five minutes each.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Aliaskhab Khizriev, $8200 - vs. Kyle Daukaus
If you think the fight above was close, peep at this one. Both fighters come with a 50-to-55 percent chance of winning, their MLs are as close as they come, their salaries on DK are separated by a measly $200, rendering that difference almost nil, and the only thing clearly putting them at opposite sides of the spectrum are their DKFP projections (80 for Khizriev and just 67 for Daukaus).
Khizriev is making his "official" UFC debut (either in a Fight Night or "numbered" event) while Daukas has been around for a couple of outings already, dropping the first one and winning the last time out, both times hitting decision-time. But man, Aliaskhab enters this one with a 4-0 record prior to hitting the UFC and defeated his last foe (already under the UFC banner) in less than a minute via submission. True menace with finishing prowess, this Khrizriev.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Julian Marquez, $9000 - vs. Sam Alvey
Talk about experience. Difference in experience, I mean. Sam Alvey has fought as many as 19 times in the UFC, going all the way back to August 2014. Julian Marquez, already 30 years of age, has fought a couple of times--the first one in Dec. 2017 and the last one just two months ago in February of this very year. The results? 9-9-1 for Alvey, 2-0 for Marquez.
Looking at these two records you wouldn't hesitate to pick Marquez here. I mean, don't hesitate to pick Marquez here. Alvey had lost four straight prior to closing his last fight on a draw facing Da Un Jung. He has not won a fight since a decision back in June 2018. He just doesn't have it anymore, folks. Marquez, while winning two bouts in the massive span of three-plus years, still is 2-0 and subbed Pitolo only two months ago. Neither of these two is a boom play, sure, but if you're forced to choose one all odds are for Julian to get away with the victory.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mackenzie Dern, $7900 - vs. Nina Ansaroff
Both Nina and Mackenzie have fought more than a few times in the UFC already. Both of them have found themselves inside an octagon six times since the start of 2016 (Nina has one more bout, taking place in 2014), but Dern is the "freshest" fighter as her four last fights all took place from Oct. 2019 on compared to Nina's only one fight in 2019 (June against Tatiana Suarez).
While she debuted with back-to-back wins, Dern has alternated Ws and Ls from her second outing to the last one. Nina lost her last bout, yes, but he had four wins prior to that. Dern has submitted opponents in two of her last three wins while losing just once via submission herself. With a 2-1 record in 2020, I'm betting on Dern to get a second win in a row for the second time in her career.
