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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 28: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai on 06/05/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Didn't that feel like a longer-than-usual week? Hmm... Anyway, the UFC is back, and we're glad. After a two-week stoppage, the UFC Apex will host another Vegas Event, the 28th all-time this Saturday, and we'll get to watch high-power festivities highlighted by a train-wrecker in Jairzinho Rozenstruik facing the no-less-brutal Augusto Sakai. Not bad for a return.
Those two will put the cherry on top of the full event, sure, but it's not that we won't have plenty of tasty fights leading up to the finale. Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura will add kilos to the main card, three middleweight bouts are also on schedule, and westers Ponzinibbio and Baeza are also scheduled to face each other on Saturday. We might not watch a ton of ground action, but rest assured there will be more than a few KO's going some foe's way come Saturday night.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 28: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai on 06/05/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, $8200 - vs. Augusto Sakai
Battle of losers! Yay! Nah, not really. Sure, both of these men are entering the Octagon this weekend carrying an L after dropping their last respective fights--but that doesn't truly represent anything about Jairzinho and Augusto. Rozenstruik lost to Ciryl Gane to close February a few months ago after a five-round decision, and the last time we watched Sakai (Sep. 2020) he fell to Alistair Overeem getting knocked out a few seconds into the fifth round.
The thing is, prior to those two losses things had looked much better for these two. Rozenstruck dealt with five of his earlier six foes--all of them knocked out--though he suffered a loss to Francis Ngannou a little over a year ago, lasting just 20 seconds against the reigning champ. Sakai had a perfect 4-0 record before he lost to Overeem, so it's not that he's any sort of joke around the UFC and had knocked out cold a couple of those opponents.
Forget about seeing any ground game, folks. This is a kill-or-get-killed bout we're talking about. Whether Rozenstruik can get back to his KO prowess or Sakai outlast Jairzinho is jet to be seen. I have been absolutely mesmerized by Jairzinho since he started dropping mates a little over two years ago. Rozenstruik didn't know how a final buzzer sound until he got there last February. I don't think he allows for that to happen again this weekend, handing Sakai a sweet KO on Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marcin Tybura, $8700 - vs. Walt Harris
If we have to judge the outcome of this fight but the most recent events involving these two, well, let's say things don't look any good for Walt Harris. Harris is on a two-fight losing streak and the worst of all is that both of those Ls came via KO. Sure, he had dropped two opponents himself prior to that inside the first minute of the first round twice, but he got knocked the hell out by Alexander Volkov and Alistair Overeem in his two 2020 fights. Not good.
Tybura, on the other hand, had a rough stretch of fights from late 2017 to the end of 2019 going 1-4 (including three KOs against) but has since rebounded nicely with a 4-0 perfect record in 2020. That's correct. Four fights in the last year and change are what adorns Tybura's fight log, with three decisions and a KO in his latest outing when he stopped Greg Hardy in 9:31 minutes of fighting time last December.
The volume is on Tybura's side, same as the precision and, seemingly, the strongest chin of late. He can also do it on the mat, which clearly works in his favor against Harris. I don't think this one goes the distance with Marcin Tybura's claiming his fifth prey in a row and bolstering his chances at an eventual (and, let's be honest, still ways away) title run.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Roman Dolidze, $84000 - vs. Laureano Staropoli
Roman Dolidze and Laureano Staropoli looked so good... until they didn't. Dolidze couldn't start his UFC career in better shape, putting together a 19-of-22 SS performance that ended with Roman KO'ing Khadis Ibragimov in his debut inside the first round. He then proceeded to face Trevin Giles this past March and all he could do was losing via decision. Ugh.
Staropoli also got to win his first two bouts in the UFC, both going the distance, but the volume was fantastic with 202+ SS attempts in each of those fights albeit on low landing rates. That 2-0 record, though, now reads 2-2 as Laureano has lost his last couple of fights after that start and is looking to bounce back with a victory this weekend.
None of these two has landed more than a TD in their UFC runs, and it's not that they go hunting for them in any ultra-active way. While Dolidze saw his KO-ability in his debut, he was rather bad in his second fight attempting just 67 SS in 15 minutes. That compares to Staropoli's minimum of 138+ SS attempted in every fight, with an average of 194 per 15 minutes. Not liking any of these two a lot, but I was forced into picking one I'd have to go with Staropoli putting up that 3-2.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Miguel Baeza, $8300 - vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
This fight would have been great entering 2019. Today, I don't know. I'm a downer, I know, but Santi was out since Nov. 2018, came back last January, got knocked out by Li Jingliang, and made that two-plus year hiatus look heavy while putting doubts around his condition and upside going forward.
Baeza, on the other hand, fought for the first time a few months after Ponzinibbio went off the Octagon and all he did was racking up Ws from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020 getting foes knocked out two times and winning via submission his last time out. That's why he's boasting a perfect 3-0 record in the promo and has gone on to fight for a silly low 22 minutes of a possible total of 45, not even half of that.
The thing is, prior to that last fight and loss, Ponzinibbio looked unstoppable stringing seven wins and getting the W in 9 of his 10 first UFC fights. That's insane, although it's also true that the run started all the way back in 2014, almost seven years ago. Baeza, with the Ws in a row himself, looks the better bet here right now, although the past weighs heavy on leaning Santi. I'd go with the freshest performer, though, and roster Miguel Baeza.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tom Breese, $9200 - vs. Antonio Arroyo
With only two UFC fights in his resume, Arroyo already finds himself in a win-or-go-home situation entering Saturday. Well, maybe that's a little bit of a stretch, but having lost both of his bouts already, and both via decision, odds are he will be canned sooner rather than later if he can't get things at least a little bit right. And the fact is that it might take quite an effort before all he's done in 30 minutes of fighting time has been landing 74 of 109 attempted SS while going 1-for-1 on TDs. Not the flashiest of numbers, those.
Breese, while having a positive 5-3 overall record since debuting all the way back in 2015, is on a rather bouncy streak of winning one, losing one in the past six fights he's been part of getting back to June of 2016. He dropped his last one last January against Omari Akhmedov and he's just another face in the UFC roster more than anything these days.
If I'm brutally honest, I hate both of these two. Brees has at least shown something in his early days, and his victory against KB Bhullar last October saw him getting back to knocking out a foe, which is more than enough to go with him over Arroyo on this one. Breese still relies a lot on finishing opponents to get that dose of bonus FP, so it's not that he's any sort of safe fantasy play, anyway.
