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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 on 7/18/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
If you know something about UFC's head honcho, Dana White, it is that he's a stubborn man. Back when COVID-19 hit for the first time, he was determined to keep the promotion going, even claiming that he had secured an island to hold some cards. It didn't end up happening, but at least White and the UFC were able to schedule some events in the company's APEX Center in Las Vegas. Not bad, considering the times we're navigating.
Now that we're in July, and after having gone through nine empty-arena events from Brazil to Jacksonville to Las Vegas, it is time to fly to Fight Island. Yes, it's happening. It's a little bit different than what we had dreamed of (it's Yas Island, just in case), but what it brings is monstrous fighters who are slated to face each other for multiple golden belts. Already past the true main event of the month (Usman vs. Masvidal) and the longest event ever (UFC on ESPN+ 30, where all main-card fights went to decision), it's time to focus on the third one, this time a Fight Night headlined by No. 1 Deiveson Figueiredo and No. 2 Joseph Benavidez, who will be fighting for the vacant flyweight belt.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 on 7/18/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Deiveson Figueiredo, $9,000 - vs. Joseph Benavidez
You can read an extended preview of this fight over here.
The last time these two met each other inside the Octagon less than five months ago, it was Figueiredo who got the win and who should be named the reigning champ these days. However, Figueiredo missed weight, so his title claim was voided. At the time of this writing, we still don't know if he will miss on the flyweight scale or not, but we're in front of another title match here.
If we take that last fight into account, Figueiredo enters this one on a three-fight winning streak, his last two fights ending early via KO and Submission inside two and one rounds, respectively. Benavidez, who has been around forever (since 2011 under the UFC banner), is 2-2 going back to 2018 and is facing a win-or-go-home fight here. He's fought for the title three times and dropped all of them, which doesn't bode well for him, and he's already 36 years old.
Figueiredo has dominated of late, including his weekend's foe in Benavidez the last time around, and has just one loss in his fight log since debuting. The most probable outcome is a KO going Figueiredo's way and giving him--finally--the moment of lifting the now-vacant flyweight title he already "won" five months ago.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jack Hermansson, $8,000 - vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Gastelum's steady ascension from 2016 onward only saw him lose a fight (against Chris Weidman) on his way to a title bout versus Israel Adesanya in April of last year. That was always going to be a tall task for Kelvin, and in fact, Adesanya got away with the win via decision. Seven months later, Gastelum lost his second in a row, leaving him at 1-2 since the start of 2018 and pretty much looking for a rebound-win this weekend that gets him back on track.
As for Jack Hermanson, his loss to Jared Cannonier last September is the lone blemish since 2018 in which was shaping up as an incredible run of performances. Not once had Hermanson scored fewer than 85.5 fantasy points, and three of his four wins in that span came via KO (one) and submission (two), the latter two inside the first round. Even when he went the distance against Jacare Souza, he was able to land 148 of 372 SS over 25 minutes while landing 3 of 10 takedown attempts.
Gastelum is a volume hitter, and that's it. Hermansson, on the other hand, mixes striking with some pinpoint ground game. While Kelvin has more historical accolades and that title-fight experience, Hermansson is the one on the rise here and should be the favorite this weekend. Gastelum eats takedowns for breakfast and has scored more than 66.5 DKFP only once in his last six fights. The upside is null with the former contender, so bet on Hermansson in this one (he's got to 102+ DKFP in his three last wins).
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marc Diakiese, $8,500 - vs. Rafael Fiziev
Small sample sizes make for hard decisions and analysis. Rafa Fiziev debuted just over a year ago inside the Octagon and went on to kiss the mat as Magomed Mustafaev KO'd him in just 1:26 minutes... after Fiziev landed one significant strike in that time. He then rebounded with a decision win in October where he showed much more than he did in his first bout, throwing 131 SS and landing more than 50% of them while also scoring himself the lone TD he attempted.
Diakiese, on the other hand, has been around the Octogan since 2016, is 5-2 overall, and he is also currently riding a two-fight winning streak. The lightweight division is stacked, though, so he's still far from a top contender (in fact, he's not even ranked in the official UFC's top-15). Diakiese is a little bit of a wild striker, as he finds it easy to go over 100 attempts per fight, but he struggles to land even half of them. Both men have shown good abilities to prevent being taken down (Fiziev hasn't allowed a TD in his two fights), but Diakiese has the edge on landing TDs himself, averaging 0.3 per 60 seconds and landing 31.8% of them.
This pick is boring, I know, but this card and this fight, in particular, seems a little bit predictable up to this point with Diakiese joining the favorites-club as the most probable winner here. None of these two have incredibly high fantasy appeal, so at least go with the safest option because even if Fiziev gets the upset victory, I wouldn't bet on a massive fantasy tally going his way.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Luana Carolina, $7,900 - vs. Ariane Lipski
Talk about small samples. Luana Carolina has all of one UFC fight under her belt. Ariane Lipski has three, all of them since the start of 2019. Carolina won her lone bout over a year ago and has been missing in action since then, while Lipski dropped her first two fights but finally won her most recent one last November. This is insanely ridiculous to analyze.
One thing is clear, and that is that none of these two actively look to take down their opponents. They just go all guns blazing on the striking side of things as their numbers prove: Lipski throws 10.8 SS per minute to Carolina's 15.4, although even on lower volume she misses quite often landing just 31.1% of her SS (Carolina lands 48.1%). I know it's stupid to make a decision just taking one fight into consideration, but Carolina looked great in her debut, reached 108.5 DKFP even going to decision, and she was able to stop all TD attempts from her rival. Give me the underdog and sophomore Carolina on this one.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexandre Pantoja, $8,800 - vs. Askar Askarov
Pantoja was well on his way to a Flyweight title fight (or at least strongly contending for the chance) when he met Deiveson Figueiredo one year ago and went home carrying an L. That derailed his run a bit, putting Figueiredo on his way to the title and leaving Pantoja fighting against Matt Schnell to close 2019, a fight he won. Pantoja is now 4-2 since the start of 2018 and the No. 4 flyweight, probably hoping for a Benavidez win this weekend so he can get a shot at the belt if he defeats Askarov.
Speaking of Askarov, he's just fighting his third UFC bout this weekend and has yet to lose. He drew his first contest and won his last one, both going to decision. In his 30 minutes inside the Octagon, he's on par with Pantoja in terms of SS volume, although he lands just 48.4% of his attempts compared to Pantoja's much higher 66.9 percent. Askarov has shown himself as the more active grappler, attempting 0.6 TDs per minute to Pantoja's 0.2, although Askarov, again, lands them on a worse rate. Getting back to the boring-yet-totally-reasonable picks, Pantoja is the clear fantasy go-to fighter here. He averages 84.3 DKFP per fight, has won his last three via early stoppage (two KOs, one submission), and is an explosive man looking to make the final jump before getting that chance at the gold.
