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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 5: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan on 8/1/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After experiencing fireworks all around Fight Island for the past few weeks, it is time to come back to Earth and reality. We're hitting the UFC APEX again this weekend, and we're doing so after watching multiple belts being put on the line so recently that this card feels a little bit underwhelming. But hey, this is mixed martial arts and the top-promotion at it, the UFC, so you know you're in for some surprises and great fights no matter those involved in them!
While it is true that we lost the scheduled main event of the evening (Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana) due to another COVID-19 positive, we will still have a super-prospect in Edmen Shahbazyan facing veteran Derek Brunson in the new main event of the main card. The fight between Lando Vannata and Bobby Green should be as close as it gets, and it is not that Joanne Calderwood and Jennifer Maia sound any bad fighting each other at flyweight.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 5: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan on 8/1/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Derek Brunson, $7,100 - vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
The careers of these two can't be more different. Derek Brunson has been around the UFC since 2012 and he won seven of his first eight fights until he was KO'd by Robert Whittaker at the end of 2016. Edmen Shahbazyan is a baby with three fights under his belt since March 2019 and a perfect 3-0 record in them. Both fighters will enter the octagon with ongoing winning streaks.
Brunson has been a menace all of his career, but not so much as of late. His last two wins came via decision while he had stopped all of his other opponents via first-round KO (six times) prior to that going back to 2015. Edmen himself has two KOs and one submission to his name, all of them inside the first round too. This will most probably turn into a high-flying affair, that's for sure. None of these two are going to hold off and will make good use of striking to try and kill their respective foe.
We don't have enough data to know how much volume they could throw on a long flight, but it is not that they have needed it... Brunson, though, has the edge on the grappling game (6 of 19 in his last two fights) and although both guys will definitely have more chances of finishing the other one via KO, I'm going to lean on a decision win for Brunson with his takedowns giving him more points over Edmen's score.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joanne Calderwood, $8,700 - vs. Jennifer Maia
Both Joanne and Jennifer are shaky fighters at best. Maia enters this fight with a 2-1 record since the start of 2019 having lost her last bout. Calderwood won her last one but is also 2-1 in the same span. These two have won 50% of their fights each. Can't be closer. When it comes to their fighting profiles, they're also pretty similar--at least on the striking side. They throw a little over 10 SS per minute, landing 43% (Calderwood) and 38% (Maia) while absorbing fewer than 4 SS per minute each at similar rates.
The gap comes on the ground. Calderwood tends to take down her opponents more steadily with 0.15 TD/60sec compared to Maia 0.05 (only two attempts, one successful in her four fights). Calderwood has succeeded in 8 of her 21 total career-TD attempts, having the edge over Maia there, who is also often the target of TDs by her foes. She has a good defense, but on pure volume, it's fair to expect Calderwood to land at least one. I have to bet on the favorite here getting a W via decision.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Vicente Luque, $8,800- vs. Randy Brown
Luque and Brown are far from newcomers to the Octagon. They have fought 13 and 9 times respectively under the UFC banner with varying results: Luque is 11-2 and Brown 6-3, and both of them won their last bout. Brown is 2-0 since the start of 2019, while Luque has fought an astonishing five times in the same span going 4-1. Had it not been for a loss versus Stephen Thompson last November the latter would be on an eight-fight winning streak going back to 2017.
Brown has finished four of his last five wins early (two KOs, two submissions) while Luque has done so in six of his last seven wins (five KOs, two submissions). Brown is the more active grappler and looks for the takedown on a greater volume, while Luque is the one throwing more strikes per minute (11.5 to 7.4, also landing 56% compared to Brown's 48%). Although Brown's TD defense is horrid, Luque doesn't look like a threat there while having a much better defense of TDs than Browns, potentially nullifying that weapon. I'm going with a Luque early-knockout on this one.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Green, $8,000 - vs. Lando Vannata
It'd be a little harsh to hang the "loser" label on those two, but we're closer to that than anything else... Vannata's run of 2-2-1 in his last fight isn't that bad, but he dropped two prior to that sitting at 2-4-1 since 2016. Green is 3-4-2 in his career, which covers that same span. Good for both guys, they were able to snatch a W in their last bouts, which, good news I guess?
These two can both strike and take foes down. Vannata averages 10 SS attempts per minute, landing 46% of them, to go with 0.21 TD/60sec with a 46% success rate. Green averages 11 SS/60sec, landing 51%, and 0.26 TD/60sec, landing only 30%. Pretty close if you ask me, and the same happens when looking at both fighters' defensive numbers. I don't have any idea how this will end, honestly. It can go either way, so I'd lean on the slightly cheaper underdog Green to score himself the W here in a battle of volume-hitters.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Holland, $8,900 - vs. Trevin Giles
Holland and Giles entered 2020 carrying an L in their win-loss columns but both were able to bounce back with wins via KO (Holland vs. Anthony Hernandez) and decision (Giles vs. James Kruse) this past May and February respectively. In the fight logs of both fighters, we find the same blemishes: losses via submission (one for Holland, two for Giles), although the good news for them is that between the two, they have only attempted 19 TDs in 11 combined fights while succeeding 11 times. In reality, though, each of them put grappling to use just once each (a 5/5 performance by Giles in 2017, and a 5/6 from Holland in late 2018).
What that tells me, though, is that these two might not go for takedowns steadily, but when they do, they hit them. With that in mind, and knowing that none of those two have a super-high floor, I'd bet on Holland winning by submission over Giles. He comes at a rather high price, sure, and this could also go either way, but Holland is the one who has won via early-stoppage multiple times inside the past two years and the one carrying higher fantasy upside.
