September 3, 2015

Brett Appley analyzes DraftKings MMA DFS lineup picks & UFC sleepers for fighters Johnson vs. Dodson. His fantasy MMA daily leagues advice & UFC DFS value picks win on DraftKings.

We're back with another edition of the DraftKings MMA Preview and UFC DFS Lineup Picks, and we get a great rematch Saturday for UFC 191, as Demetrious Johnson takes on John Dodson for the second time.

As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:

• Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
• GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
• Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.

 
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MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets

1. Demetrious Johnson (11.4k)

It could be another great fight the second time around, and John Dodson is one of the most capable fighters to beat Demetirous Johnson. That being said, "Mighty Mouse" is one of the most technical fighters the UFC has ever seen, and it's an extremely daunting task to take him out.

Even with his high price tag, Johnson is well worth the price in cash games. He's a -550 favorite, and even if the fight goes to decision, Johnson is capable of landing enough strikes to score close to 100 points. Dodson's best chance to win is through an early knockout, but if Johnson can stay conscious, he should be able to take home another belt Saturday. I like Johnson as an anchor in my cash games, and I think he's the safest player on the board.

2. Frank Mir (9.1k)

It's not that I think Frank Mir is a safe play to get a win Saturday against Andrei Arlovski, but you have to fit in two underdogs, and Mir tops that list for me. Vegas is extremely high on this fight to end in a finish, with a line of -750, and Mir is as confident as ever, winning his last two fights by impressive KO.

Additionally, I think Mir will be highly owned in all formats, and in cash games, if you choose to fade him, it could really hurt you. I think the best play is to use Mir in cash games to block the majority of lineups. It doesn't hurt that he has one of the highest upsides on the entire card and could easily net you more than 100 points in a win. It will be a tough task to out-strike Arlovski, but Mir's proved me wrong the last two contests, and I wouldn't be shocked if he came through again.

MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets

1. Anthony Johnson (11.5k)

I think Anthony Johnson is a pretty safe fighter to earn a win this week, but I think he makes an especially good GPP play. He could easily come home with the highest scoring total on the night. Johnson takes a line of -650 to win, which is already worth it for the price. He also carries a finish prop of -289, which is the highest on the card.

Johnson has already proven he's one of the most powerful strikers in the UFC, and while Jimi Manuwa is a solid striker himself, I think Johnson is at another level. I've heard counterarguments that suggest Johnson's lack of cardio will get him in trouble, but Johnson is definitely the better wrestler in this fight and the more athletic one. I think will deter him. If I'm paying up for one fighter in GPPs, I think "Rumble" is the guy.

2. John Lineker (9.8k)

I chose to write up John Lineker as my second GPP play because I haven't talked about him too much in my other columns, and I do think he's a very risky play to even earn the win. But in GPPs, remember, we still look for guys with the highest upside. Lineker gets a very tough matchup in Francisco Rivera, as he moves up to 135 pounds for the first time, and I honestly think Rivera will get the job done in a very close fight. Furthermore, IF Lineker does get the win, he has a great shot at winning by knockout.

Both Rivera and Lineker are powerful strikers, and that's how the fight should play out-with fireworks. Lineker is at a disadvantage in reach and technique, but he has the advantage in power, and it wouldn't shock me to see him land some bombs early. Because it's such a close fight, Lineker is very moderately priced and an easy target to fit in your lineups.

MMA DFS for DrafKings – Fighters to Avoid

1. Paige VanZant (12.3k)

It's crazy that I'm recommending the fade on a fighter who A) I love, B) I think will win very easily and C) Has a great chance to finish the fight, but yet, here we are. Paige VanZant should have no trouble with her opponent in Alex Chambers, but the problem is that she's just so expensive. 12.3k is a lot to pay, and it really hurts the overall strength of your lineup.

Even if she does finish, I think it may take a couple rounds. With Anthony Johnson and Demetrious Johnson sitting right below her at a much more payable price, it's going to be tough to spend those extra bucks. Her ownership might be low because of this, and therefore makes a good GPP play, but I'm most likely going to be fading her and starting my lineups with the aforementioned studs listed above.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley. Good luck RotoBallers, and I hope you enjoy! 

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