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Welcome back to another edition of the DraftKings MMA Preview and DFS Picks. After a long week of four events, we get a solid card on free TV that's headlined by the 135 lb. title and a rematch between TJ Dillashaw and Renan Barao.
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As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS – Cash Game Targets
1. Gian Villante (8.6k)
Gian Villante is my clear cut, number one option in both cash games and GPPs this week.
DraftKings prices its fighters according to Vegas odds, but sometimes they make mistakes. Villante was priced at 8.6k, while his opponent Tom Lawlor was priced at 10.8k. According to Vegas, however, Villante is the significant favorite at -230.
Considering the fact that we have to select two fighters priced below 10k each week, drafting one with a high chance to win comes few and far between. So when the opportunity presents itself, we have to take advantage. Villante should rack up enough significant strikes against Lawlor to make him a solid play in general, and that doesn't even address the fact that Lawlor hasn't fought in two years.
Start your lineups with a free square in Villante and move on.
2. TJ Dillashaw (10.9k)
There were several fighters who I could have listed for this second spot, but my favorite is TJ Dillashaw. He's fighting in the main event, which means he gets the bonus of fighting for a potential of five rounds. He's also a big favorite.
It's a bit scary that he's fighting Renan Barao, who's proven himself to be a deadly finisher in the UFC, but Dillashaw beat him up once, and I think he can do it again. I wouldn't say it's especially likely that Dillashaw gets a finish, or that the fight is as one-sided as last time, but I think he has the clear advantage in this rematch.
I definitely like Barao as another cash game play, and I don't hate stacking this fight to guarantee the winner, but Dillashaw is the fighter you should look to first.
MMA DFS – GPP Targets
1. Joe Lauzon (11.1k)
I'm not going to lie, I love Joe Lauzon as a fighter, and I definitely have a bias toward him, but I also think he makes one of the best plays Saturday night.
Lauzon opened as a -260 favorite and was priced as the second-highest fighter on the card, but he has since boosted up to -350, making him the biggest favorite by far. He also has the best chance to earn a finish, according to Vegas, with a "wins inside distance" prop of -139.
His opponent, Takanori Gomi, is clearly on a steep decline and not far away from the end of his UFC career. Gomi may have the striking advantage in this fight, but I expect Lauzon to look for the takedown and hunt for submissions until he finishes the fight.
2. Bryan Caraway (9.5k)
This is a perfect example of a GPP only play, but it's one I will definitely take a few shots at. Bryan Caraway has won 17 of his 19 professional victories by submission, and he's fighting Eddie Wineland, a striker with a clear disadvantage in BJJ.
Wineland is the favorite, and if he keeps this fight standing, he should have no problem out-striking Caraway. But if Caraway can get this fight to the ground, he has a great chance of securing another submission victory.
This play is dangerous because if Caraway doesn't finish the fight, he most likely won't surpass the 50 point mark. If he finishes, however, he has potential to be one of the highest scoring fighters on the night. That upside is what I like to target in GPPs.
MMA DFS – Fighters to Avoid
1. Tom Lawlor (10.8k)
I normally won't suggest to avoid a fighter opposite of a guy I wrote up earlier, but I have to do it in this case. I think it's a huge mistake to target Tom Lawlor this week, even on one single team.
Even if Lawlor wins, that doesn't change the fact that he's severely mispriced and overvalued. Lawlor is currently a +190 underdog, but he's the fourth most expensive fighter on DraftKings. In reality, he should be the fourth CHEAPEST fighter.
Additionally, Lawlor hasn't fought since April 2013, meaning he hasn't set foot in the Octagon for more than two years. That's way too risky to target in my opinion, as there are so many variables that come into play during a long layoff. There's a chance he's still not fully healthy, and even if he is, he could have severe ring rust when he steps back in the cage.
Stay away from Lawlor this weekend and let others make the mistake of taking on his risk.
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley. Good luck RotoBallers, and I hope you enjoy!
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