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If you're like me, you probably have lost track of time a little bit, thanks to the pandemic locking you home for a few weeks. Believe it or not, we're this close to the end of June, and the upcoming UFC on ESPN 12 event will see us cross the mid-year mark and fly to Fight Island (or Yas Island for you party poopers out there) to embrace true octagon-shaped greatness. But let's not get ahead of ourselves too much and focus on this weekend's card first.
This Saturday, we will have the UFC getting back to its APEX complex in Las Vegas for the fifth consecutive time, all of them inside the past 30 days. A lightweight main event between No. 3 Dustin Poirier and No. 5 Dan Hooker headlines the main card, which also features welterweights, Mike Perry and Mickey Gall. While this card isn't mindblowing--pretty much in line with the APEX-bound events of the past month--it should be a good one gearing up to the fireworks that surely will come our way in July starting with the impossibly great three-title event scheduled for UFC 251.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker on 6/27/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin Poirier, $8,700 - vs. Dan Hooker
Both Poirier and Hooker enter this bout as grizzled veterans. Poirier started his UFC career in 2011, and eight years later, in April 2019 was able to lift the lightweight "fake/interim" belt after defeating Max Holloway (Max went up a division, so it wasn't that impressive for Poirier who looked much bigger than Holloway). Too bad for Poirier, he never was a "true" champ in many eyes as Khabib Nurmagomedov ousted him when they unified the belts later that year.
Hooker has never fought for a title, yet his current No. 5 rank and the chance to beat a well-positioned Poirier should give him all of the motivation he needs to score himself a W. In fact, Hooker is 3-0 in 2019 and 7-1 in his last eight. Poirier is 4-1 going back to 2018. Both fighters are high-volume, high-efficiency strikers attempting more than 200 significant strikes per fight while landing 50%+ of them. Poirier has the edge, though, with slightly better numbers.
When it comes to the ground game, Poirier is also ahead of Hooker. It's been years since Poirier has won via submission (and Hooker hasn't done it either since 2017), but he has shown the ability to land high-percentage takedown attempts in the past. I'm not betting on that happening, though. It's going to be an early KO-stoppage or a five-round decision. In any case, I'm seeing Poirier winning and potentially getting a second shot at Khabib and the lightweight title soon enough.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Perry, $9,000 - vs. Mickey Gall
The dropdown in quality from the headliner to the rest of the card's fights shows. Neither Perry nor Gall carries enormous appeal with them. Perry is on a two-fight losing streak and is 2-4 going back to the start of 2018, while Gall won his last bout (this past March versus Salim Touahri) but otherwise is 2-2 in his last four.
None of the two fighters are currently ranked in the welterweight leaderboards, which speaks of what is on tape. Anyways, two of Gall's last three fights ended early (lost one by KO, won the other by submission), and the same happened with Perry's last one (a KO loss to Geoff Neal). While Gall has won four of his five overall UFC victories via submission, his low-volume strikes kill his long-fight fantasy upside.
Perry has thrown at least 100 significant strikes in five of his last seven fights (all of those five went the distance) while landing 51% of his total strikes. In terms of fantasy points, that's always going to win, plus he's attempted 12 takedowns (five landed) in the seven bouts—potential 15-minute snoozefest ending with a decision win (and a better fantasy outcome) for Perry here.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brendan Allen, $9,200 - vs. Kyle Daukaus
We're entering deep waters already. Allen has two UFC fights (both early-stoppage wins via submission and KO), while newcomer Kyle Daukaus is fighting on short notice and has no track record with the promotion. If only because of the (small) experience inside the UFC octagon and the longer preparation time, Allen should have the edge.
Digging deeper, Allen is carrying a pro-fighting six-win streak, and in his only two UFC fights, he showed his prowess to both knockdowns and beat folks on the ground. He only needed 4:47 minutes to finish Tom Breese four months ago, and he beat Kevin Holland back in October. Daukaus comes with an impressive 9-0 record himself and is all about submission and grappling. Low fantasy-score fight this one with the only appeal of some bonus points going Allen's way via an early submission win, if anything.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Maurice Greene, $8,600 - vs. Gian Villante
This one could turn out to be ugly. Gian Villante is moving up from light HW to heavyweight to face Greene this weekend. It is not that Villante is small, but you know how things go at the top-weight division. Greene should be favored because of that, but Greene is also on a two-fight losing streak and a 2-2 record overall, which doesn't talk too good about his game. Villante hasn't been a world-beater on his division either, with a 2-4 record in his last six going back to 2017 and wins over middling Ed Herman and Francimar Barros via decision.
I don't think this fight has any good fantasy pick in it, and the best that could happen is that Greene knocks Villante out and earns some bonus points to bulk his total score. Other than that, I don't see Villante throwing/landing as many strikes as he's done as a lightweight, so his upside looks very limited. I'd either go with Greene or just avoid this bout fantasy-wise entirely if I could.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Pena, $8,900 - vs. Khama Worthy
With the news of Aspen Ladd and Sara McMann (women's bantamweight division) being injured and out of the card, the UFC will leave the main card at four fights. Pena and Worthy will be the ones closing the undercard, though, and given there are only four "main" fights, it was worth including this one here to make it five on the column. Worthy has only one fight inside a UFC octagon (a KO win against Devonte Smith in August 2019) while Pena is 3-1 since the start of 2019 (three decisions and a third-round KO win).
Unless Worthy can stop Pena with a knockout early, this has everything to reach the 15-minute mark, and there is no way Pena doesn't get the most out of it there. He has attempted 85 SS or more in his four fights while landing more than 45% of them, and most importantly, he's an active grappler with at least one successful takedown per fight and almost four attempts per contest. Veteran, 33-year-old Worthy shouldn't be too much of a threat to Pena's fantasy upside.
