RADIO
After a two-week hiatus, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is back with another tasty Fight Night card highlighted by the welterweight bout between Tyron Woodley (no. 1 WW) and Gilbert Burns (no. 6 WW). The event will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV, after the facilities opened last June with the idea of hosting live events and studio shows in mind. The venue will serve host to this card and the upcoming UFC 250 one week from now on June 6. With sports all around the world gearing up for a comeback, the UFC keeps leading the way and should benefit from another weekend still (mostly) bare of action and gather tons of interest.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC Fight Night Woodley vs. Burns on 5/30/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
UFC Fight Night Welterweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Gilbert Burns, $7,400 - vs. Tyron Woodley
Since he became champion all the way back in July 2016, only one man has been able to stop Woodley and claim the welterweight from him: mighty Kamaru Usmana little over a year ago. After beating Robbie Lawler for the title, Woodley went on to defend his position at the top of the division four consecutive times (one draw against Stephen Thompson included) before losing the belt to Usman in a full-time decision.
It can't be said that Woodley's run of grace is over. Far from it. Woodley hasn't stepped into the octagon since losing to Usman and prior to that defeat he had won six fights and drew another one with his last loss coming in 2014. While Woodley is a good asset to roster in DFS due to his high DKFP average (82.0 in his winning-fights as a champion), he relies too much on strikes and does nothing on the ground, having attempted just eight takedowns in the last eight bouts he's been part of.
Gibert Burns, while a good striker, also brings the ground game to the table. It's a night-to-day comparison between Burns and Woodley's styles. Burns takedowns often land on the 40%-plus success rate and he goes for them almost five times per contest. Burns enters this fight on a five-win streak and a win might put him in a very good position to face the champ in a short time.
Burns has averaged 91.7 DKFP in his winning streak, can take fights the distance or win them earlier (he has a first-round KO and a second-round Submission to his name in his last five), and is the clear underdog here. Woodly scares me, but Burns' price and all-around abilities make me thing we could witness an upset come Saturday night.
UFC Fight Night Heavyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Augusto Sakai, $8,200 - vs. Blagoy Ivanov
This fight has everything to be a close one, and the DK prices of both men speak of that. Sakai and Ivanov have been part of UFC cards three and four times respectively, and none of them has graced a card before July of 2018 thus being relatively new to the circuit.
Sakai is currently carrying a three-fight winning streak and has yet to get an L in the UFC. He's KO'd Chase Sherman and Marcin Tybura and defeated Andrei Arlovski via Decision on a three-round bout. It's a little worrying that he could only rack up 51 DKFP on that fight against Arlovski even with it going for the full 15 minutes, making Sakai a low-fantasy scoring option valuable only in early-stoppage fights. Sakai game is non-existent.
Ivanov, while not a master of the takedown, at least tries and lands them from time to time. In his last two fights, in fact, he succeeded in 5 of 8 attempts (against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa). Ivanov had won two fights before losing his last event against Lewis via Decision in 15 minutes. The concerns from Ivanov's side comes from the putrid performance he put on against Lewis. Much like Sakai versus Arlovski, Ivanov could only attempt 38 strikes against Lewis landing 20 of them. The rate was high (73% success) but the volume was so low that he finished the fight with a paltry 34 DKFP.
This fight could go the distance and become a low-scoring affair in the meantime, but Sakai is the only man with early-stoppages in his UFC fight log and the one with the greatest chances to send his opponent to the mat.
UFC Fight Night Lightweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Brok Weaver, $7,000, vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Counting only UFC Fight Night and "numbered" events, this would mark Weaver's second fight under the UFC bright lights and the follow-up to his only fight (and win) within the company boundaries. This past February Weaver went on to "defeat" Kazula Vargas in a fight that ended with the latter disqualified just four minutes into the first round. Makes sense, considering Vargas kneed Weaver on the head while he was down, an illegal move that knocked Weaver out but also ended the fight abruptly handing Brok the W.
Roosevelt Roberts has a little longer list of fights in his resume than Weaver, but he's far from a grizzled veteran too. Roberts has been part of three UFC FN events and carries a 2-1 record in those, all of them ending in 15-minute decisions. Robert can get points both on the ground and standing up, as he mixes and matches a good striking/takedown combo. Don't expect fireworks or super high strike counts, but he should be good to reach the 100 attempts and around 40% landings while pairing those with a very sweet successful takedown rate (50%+ is almost a lock while attempting 2.3 per fight).
We have seen virtually nothing of Weaver in the UFC brightest stages and he remains an incognita to these days. This is a wild pick to make, I know, but the difference in price is staggering (and probably right, not going to lie there) as to pick Weaver as your flier to win you the weekend slate. Roberts is the surefire, safe pick. Weaver, on the other hand, is the ultimate contrarian pick that can definitely flip your fantasy outcomes.
UFC Fight Night Women's Strawweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Hanna Cifers, $6,900 - vs. Mackenzie Dern
There is so much in the air in this card, top to bottom. Enter Dern vs. Cifers. Mackenzie was absolutely dominated by Amanda Ribas in her last fight (a loss) last December when she could only land 20 of 145 attempted strikes and none of the 6 takedowns she attempted. No wonder she finished with a pale-white 10 DKFP even on a full three-round, 15-minute fight that went all the way to Decision. Other than that, though, he counts his other two UFC fights by wins against Amanda Cooper (less than three minutes into the first round, Submission) and Ashley Yoder (dominant win via Decision).
Cifers herself has fought four times, sandwiching two wins between two losses in her first and last bouts to Maycee Barber and Angela Hill respectively. While Cifers is a slightly higher volume strike-thrower, her ground game is far from good with just one takedown in four fights (and more than 46 minutes inside the octagon). Cifers has yet to stop a fight early, with both of her wins coming via Decision.
We could compare this fight to the last one discussed, with Cifers potentially becoming the ultimate show-stealer of the night. Odds are against him and the difference in Dern's and Cifers' price shows it, but losing against Angela Hill was kind of expected and I'm not holding that against her too hard. I'm betting on a comeback here for Cifers and a win over Dern on Saturday.
