RADIO
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida, on Saturday for the third--and final--event within a seven-day window. The card will showcase 11 bouts, and will be headlined by the legendary Alistair Overeem taking on the hard-hitting Walt Harris. With UFC 249 garnering a massive 700,000-plus Pay-Per-View buys, and UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira also delivering in terms of ratings, the organization should continue to receive plenty of interest, primarily from the collective sports-betting and DFS community as the demand for live sporting events is higher than ever.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC Fight Night on 5/16/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
NOTE: Mike Davis withdrew from his fight with Giga Chikadze due to medical reasons as a result of weight-cutting measures. Please adjust your lineup(s) accordingly.
UFC Fight Night Heavyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Walt Harris, $8,700 - vs. Allistair Overeem
As much as I like Overeem, I can't go against Harris in this fight. See, Overeem is a staple of the sport and his days as a pro span way back in time, to the point he faced (and defeated) Brock Lesnar already at the end of 2011. Including that bout, Overeem has logged 16 UFC fights and he even had a chance at getting the heavyweight belt in 2016 when he went against the current belt-holder Stipe Miocic and lost in under five minutes.
Although Overeem rebounded after that loss (two consecutive wins against Mark Hunt and Fabricio Werdum), his best days started to be over when youngins Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes dealt with him and inflicted TKO losses in his stat sheet in a span of seven months. The win against Oleinik last year was quick but not that good given his opponent profile, and up-and-comer Rozenstruik put Overeem back to sleep in his last fight with a buzzer-beater at the end of the fifth round.
Walt Harris, on the other hand, will enter the octagon on a two-fight win streak that could have been a four-fight one had he not been suspended by USADA and taken a W from (over Arlovski in 2018). No matter what, Harris has been a menace lately and he's gone on to finish three of his last four fights by TKO, with his last two wins coming before hitting the 60-second mark inside the first round.
It is interesting that both fighters' wins have come against the same foe: Aleksei Oleinik. Both dominated, showcased their heavy-strike profiles as fighters, and leave most of us imagining how this upcoming bout could end as they closed shop before we could even realize. Overeem wouldn't have an issue with going on a long fight (and even taking it to the ground) but Harris will try--and he's perfectly capable of--to cut it short and knock Alistair out as soon as he gets the chance.
UFC Fight Night Women Strawweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Angela Hill, $7,100 - vs. Claudia Gadelha
Check these little numbers out: Hill has fought six times since the start of 2019 while Gadelha has done so once; Hill has won her last three bouts and four of those six; Gadelha is 2-2 in her last four; Hill has finished two of her last three fights by TKO, Gadelha is on a four-fight streak going the full length. I see a clear edge to Hill here, and the DrafKings' salary of both fighters only makes this pick easier to make.
This fight will pit two very contrasted fighters inside the octagon. Hill barely tries to bring the fight to the ground, averaging just a takedown per fight in her career while Gadelha uses that as her main weapon with more than six takedown attempts per bout. On the other hand, Hill is a volume-hitter and a surefire bet to throw more than 150 strikes. Gadelha almost always falls short of reaching 100 strike attempts, let alone landing them.
In terms of fantasy scoring, Gadelha's best nights seem to have left the strawweight, as she has gone from averaging 90.1 DKFP in her pre-2017 fights to just 60.4 in her last five. Hill's on the total opposite side of the spectrum, having averaged 79.6 DKFP in her last five bouts and fewer than 88.5 fantasy points only once.
This fight will most probably go the distance, and even there Hill is also a better bet than Gadelha with an average of 6.5 DKFP/Min over Gadelha's 3.3. Take advantage of the discount and go with Hill for this one.
UFC Fight Night Featherweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Dan Ige, $7,700, vs. Edson Barboza
Can we see one last Edson Barboza Renaissance? As incredible as it sounds, Barboza has been negated at a chance for the title for almost 10 years and counting, as he first fought in the UFC in 2010 and has yet to find himself in a title fight, even though he holds a 14-7 record. That being said, Barboza is far from the bright star he once was. He's carrying a two-fight losing streak (although those L's came against Paul Felder and new title-contender Justin Gaedthje) and has lost four of his last five fights.
In simple terms, the young blood of the sport has passed Barboza by, and to make matters more complicated, he's going down a division in weight. Neither Barboza (11th lightweight contender) or Dan Ige (12th featherweight) are among the crop of their divisions, but Ige shouldn't be such the underdog he's considered entering this fight.
Ige lost his UFC debut against Julio Arce in 2018, and since then, he's slashed through the division with five consecutive wins that have included a TKO and a Submission. That last bit of info is rather important, as Ige relies heavily on his ground abilities and averages 1.3 takedowns per fight while attempting 4.6 per.
Barboza is a high-volume striker, and that lowers his Significant Strike rate numbers (career 46% hitter), but that volume gives him tons of fantasy points every time he steps into the octagon. Other than that, though, he doesn't offer much more upside. That's why Ige's more rounded all-around game offers a better bet in fantasy contests. He might not be a natural finisher, but he doesn't need from early-end bonus points to rack up DKFP thanks to his striking and ground game. Just look at their five last wins and the DKFP both fighters averaged: Ige went for 94.9, and Barboza could only reach 80.9 (and that is going all the way back to 2015!).
UFC Fight Night Middleweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Eryk Anders, $7,600 - vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Get ready for a snoozefest! Anders has fought seven times since the start of 2018, and his fights have gone the distance five times, with another one ending only 18 seconds short of reaching the finish line. Jotko has done so three times, and in his last two, he went to a decision while he still fought for two full rounds and 2:16 minutes in his other one.
Jotko's experience is something to keep in mind when assessing both fighters, but the truth is that experience translates to age, and Jotko's best days are kinda over now. Sure, he's on a two-fight win streak, and those couple of victories came no longer than a year ago, but he only went to score an average of 73.3 DKFP in them, and he did so on full 15-minute fights.
Eryk Anders enters this contest with the same 2-0 record after defeating his last two foes via decision and TKO while averaging a much healthier 83.8 DKFP per fight.
In any case, both Jotko and Anders are good-not-great do-it-all fighters that rely in strikes and takedowns in equal parts. Anders hasn't been able to land a takedown in his last four fights (he has only attempted two, though) while Jotko's averaged 3.6 attempts in his last five bouts, landing 1.4 per. Both contenders throw a similar amount of significant strikes per fight (around 90), landing half of them. Everything looks too close to have a clear winner in mind, but I'd go with former Alabama linebacker and underdog Eryk Anders.
