RADIO
It feels good to have the UFC back in full-gear. And things are just getting started. This weekend, as has been the case for the past few weeks, we'll see MMA action back in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex complex. The small octagon will make another appearance on our screens as we'll get to enjoy another ESPN+ broadcast for the 11th time and the second to last before we fly to Fight Island come July.
After an event that was highlighted by a women's flyweight bout that lacked pounds inside the eight-wall structure, this weekend's is headlined by a couple of true heavyweights in No. 3 contender Curtis Blaydes and No. 7 Alexander Volkov--a champion himself in his Bellator day. Two more fights will include top-10 fighters in their respective divisions, those being Josh Emmett and Shane Burgos on the featherweight ranks, and Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau in the women's bantamweight division.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for DrafKings for UFC on ESPN 11 Blaydes vs. Volkov on 6/20/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
UFC on ESPN Heavyweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Curtis Blaydes, $9,400 - vs. Alexander Volkov
Blaydes is a beast. I like his fight game a lot. He's won seven of his last eight fights going back to 2017. He's beaten the likes of Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, and Aleksei Oleinik. The problem with Blaydes, though, is that he flopped when he needed it the least versus Francis Ngannou at the end of 2018. That L derailed his run to a championship fight, but he's still the No. 3 contender now.
Volkov has only three fights since 2018 and is 2-1 on them, with victories over Greg Hardy last year and Fabricio Werdum two years back. The difference between Blaydes and Volkov is clear: while Blaydes goes in for the kill and often finishes his fights early and on low volume, Volkov tends to spend more time on the octagon and work his way toward victories. That's why, fight-finish bonus removed, Blaydes averages only 40 DKFP to Volkov's 60.
While Blaydes has not even attempted more than 60 SS in his last three fights, he makes up for that low hitting volume with a good ground game. Volkov is all about the strikes, averaging more than 150 attempts per fight on his career. I'd bet on Blaydes KO'ing Volkov here and earning a sweet DKFP bonus, as he often does.
UFC on ESPN Featherweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Shane Burgos, $8,700 - vs. Josh Emmett
Josh Emmett has turned into an unstoppable force lately. Emmett is on a two-win streak but 4-1 in his last five bouts, having finished three of them inside the first two rounds via KO. He just doesn't need more than 20-ish strikes to send his rivals to the mat. The fantasy points aren't overly high on each scoring category, but the fight-ending bonuses make up for that.
Burgos, on the other hand, is all about volume and long runs. He enters this fight having won his last three fights but only with a win before hitting the 4:32-minute mark in the third round (a first-round submission back in 2018). Don't expect that kind of thing here, though. Neither fighter relies on grappling, and odds are with Burgos here because he's a striking monster: he averages 170 SS attempts per fight and lands over 57% of all strikes.
Burgos should out-strike Emmett, and as long as he keeps his guard up and avoids a lightning punch from Emmett, he's the sure thing in this fantasy content. Burgos' 102 DKFP average clearly outperforms Emmett's 67 in their last three fights.
UFC on ESPN Women's Bantamweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Raquel Pennington, $8,800 - vs. Marion Reneau
This is a tricky fight. Look at the records, and you might get fooled: Pennington has lost three of her last four fights while Reneau has only dropped two of her last six. Both fighters enter this one having lost their last one (the previous two in the case of Marion). Still, Pennington's losses came against absolutely great women: she ate L's versus Holly Holm, Germaine de Randamie, and Amanda Nunes (title fight). On the other hand, she defeated Miesha Tate back in 2016.
Both fighters are similar when it comes to striking (Pennington throws more volume on lower success rates, Reneau less volume on higher rates), but this fight (in fantasy terms) could very well come down to grappling. Reneau is a zero on that game. While Pennington is far from the GOAT there, she at least tries (six takedown attempts per fight) and has landed one in three of her last four bouts. I'm picturing a 15-minute fight going to decision, with a win going Pennington's way.
UFC on ESPN Welterweight - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Belal Muhammad, $8,900 - vs. Lyman Good
Good's UFC record is a good mess since he debuted in 2015: W-L-W-L-W. Talk about volatility. Muhammad, on the other hand, has gone 6-1 in his last seven bouts (all from 2017 onward) and is on a two-win streak. This is a clear Yin vs. Yang fight. Muhammad has gone to decision in five of his six wins, showcasing both striking and grappling prowess. Good has won each of his fights via KO in the second, first, and third rounds, respectively.
One can expect Muhammad to rely on volume and try to make time his friend in this fight. He will try to get to the 15-minute mark and earn the decision against a menace as Good is. If only because he's got a really long track record of surviving long contests, I'd give Muhammad the edge here and go with him. Even if Good gets the win, he's an absolute super-punch, fight-finish bonus dependant fighter in fantasy.
UFC on ESPN Catchweight (160lbs) - MMA DFS Lineup Picks
Roosevelt Roberts, $9,200 - vs. Jim Miller
I was going to print Jim Miller's full fight log to study it, but I ran out of paper. Miller has been around UFC cages since 2008, and his best days are clearly past him. Focusing on recent events, he enters this weekend with a 3-6 record since 2017. Roberts is the total opposite in terms of experience, with a 3-1 record in his only four UFC bouts--all of them taking place from April 2019 onward.
Although Miller has rebounded a little bit lately (2-1 since 2019), all three wins in the last four years have come via sneaky submissions on low-volume takedown attempts. Sure, he could catch Roberts on one of those moments, but I just don't see it. Roberts has gone the distance three times and submitted his last opponent (Brok Weaver) just three weeks ago. The only upside with Miller is a potential first-round super fight-finish bonus. Other than that, Roberts is the clear fantasy play on this one with an average of 36.5 DKFP without factoring bonus in, and an average of 69 DKFP all things considered (compared to Miller's 12.5 and 67 marks respectively).
