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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on September 3, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been a good one so far, and I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's Sunday main slate features an unusually light seven-game matinee mix on DraftKings and an eight-game set on FanDuel, which includes the Coors Field game. The weather looks mostly clear, but it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/3/2023 and the slate locking at 1:05 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Tarik Skubal, DET vs. CWS ($8,400 DK, $9,100 FD)
Today's pitching options don't inspire a ton of confidence. That's probably the best way to preface that Tarik Skubal is my favorite pitcher today. He carries a decent 3.93 ERA through starts this season, but the underlying numbers suggest a much more dominant pitcher. Skubal boasts an elite 2.67 xERA and 2.81 xFIP. That includes a fantastic .255 xwOBA, .213 xBA, .312 xSLG, 5.4% barrel rate, and 5% walk rate. From a fantasy standpoint, the best part of Skubal's game is his tremendous 29.4% strikeout rate. Workload concerns have clouded his appeal for most of the summer, but Skubal put that to rest with a 97-pitch outings last time out.
The White Sox don't present a particularly scary opponent for Skubal. They've been an underwhelming offense all season, and the struggles have only worsened in the second half. Chicago is scoring just 3.8 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a subpar 96 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, along with a .721 OPS and a generous 26% strikeout rate. Further, Luis Robert Jr. missed Saturday's contest with a quad injury, and another potential absence on Sunday would leave the White Sox significantly shorthanded.
Chris Sale, BOS vs. KCR ($8,700 DK, $9,200 FD)
Chris Sale is another pitcher who has significantly outperformed his surface numbers. He carries a 4.75 ERA through 15 starts, but his 3.82 xERA and 3.70 xFIP paint a much different picture. Sale has limited opponents to a .216 xBA, .303 xwOBA, 88.1 mph average exit velocity, and a 33.3% hard-hit rate. He also strikes out hitters at an outstanding 29.2% rate, illustrating his high ceiling. Earlier this week, Sale reached 92 pitches for the first time since May, so he should be fully stretched out today.
Following back-to-back outings against the Houston Astros, the Royals will be a welcomed opponent for Sale. Kansas City has struggled against left-handed pitching all season, posting an 89 wRC+ against southpaws, alongside a .711 OPS and 23.5% strikeout rate. The second-half breakout of Bobby Witt Jr. has elevated this offense recently, but the Royals are still far from an imposing matchup.
Also consider: Sandy Alcantara, Zack Thompson, Kevin Gausman (FD only)
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Trea Turner – SS, PHI vs. Wade Miley ($5,900 DK, $3,900 FD)
Trea Turner is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He's hit safely in 13 consecutive games entering today, including nine home runs during that span. It's been an underwhelming season overall for Turner, but his greater track record is elite. Turner has always been excellent against left-handed pitchers, posting a career .496 slugging percentage and 129 wRC+.
Wade Miley's 3.17 ERA suggests he's been a strong pitcher this season, but the underlying numbers tell us there's significant regression he must reckon with. Miley sports a 4.54 xERA and 4.81 xFIP, including a .435 xSLG. Right-handed hitters have slugged .433 against him for his career. Trea Turner is absolutely my preferred righty bat in the Phillies' lineup.
Triston Casas – 1B, BOS vs. Zack Greinke ($4,400 DK, $2,900 FD)
Triston Casas has lit up pitchers in the second half. He boasts a blistering 1.079 OPS with 13 home runs and a 186 wRC+. His overall season numbers are equally impressive, featuring a .504 xSLG, 13.6% barrel rate, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, and 46.9% hard-hit rate.
At 39 years old, Zack Greinke is pretty much cooked. He carries a 5.09 xERA and 4.38 xFIP. Greinke has surrendered a .483 xSLG, .287 xBA, .385 xwOBA, and only produces a 16.1% strikeout rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .575 against him with a .394 wOBA.
Ronny Mauricio – 2B/SS, NYM vs. George Kirby ($2,500 DK, $2,500 FD)
You won't find a better value than Ronny Mauricio in this price range. The Mets' fourth-ranked prospect posted a .292/.346/.506 slash line with 23 home runs and 24 stolen in Triple-A this season. His MLB career is just two games deep, but Mauricio has already posted a pair of multi-hit performances.
George Kirby is not a pitcher I'm eager to stack against, though a one-off bat is certainly on the table. Left-handed hitters have been particularly successful against Kirby, slugging .437 this season. Kirby's hallmark is that he doesn't walk hitters, but Mauricio doesn't walk at an impressive rate anyway.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Julio Rodriguez – OF, SEA vs. Tylor Megill ($6,400 DK, $4,300 FD)
Julio Rodriguez is another red-hot hitter. He's hit safely in 15 consecutive games and is coming off a torrid August, featuring a 1.197 OPS and 231 wRC+. Overall, Rodriguez is up to a .281 xBA, .468 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, 93 mph average exit velocity, 11.4% barrel rate, and 52.2% hard-hit rate.
Tylor Megill might be the worst pitcher on this slate. Through 20 starts, he sports a 6.39 xERA and 4.95 xFIP. He's been lit up to the tune of a .498 xSLG, .296 xBA, 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 9.9% barrel rate, 43.9% hard-hit rate, and .380 xwOBA.
Kerry Carpenter – OF, DET vs. Michael Kopech ($4,600 DK, $3,000 FD)
Kerry Carpenter is quietly blossoming into a stud. He's slashing .289/..351/.525 with 20 home runs through 92 games this season. That includes a .486 xSLG, 11.2% barrel rate, 45.9% hard-hit rate, 90.6 mph average exit velocity, and .351 xwOBA. Carpenter is slugging .543 against right-handed pitchers with a 139 wRC+.
Michael Kopech is as capable of getting lit up as any pitcher on this slate. He's surrendered a .455 xSLG, 13.1% barrel rate, 42.5% hard-hit rate, and 90.5 mph average exit velocity. Kopech is no stranger to the long ball.
Max Kepler – OF, MIN vs. Jon Gray ($3,600 DK, $2,700 FD)
Max Kepler has been one of baseball's most underrated mashers this season. He's slashing an impressive .254/.322/.485 with 21 home runs, but the underlying numbers are even more eye-opening. Kepler is crushing the ball to the tune of a .508 xSLG, 92.1 mph average exit velocity, 12.2% barrel rate, 48% hard-hit rate, and .270 xBA. His upside greatly exceeds the price tag.
Jon Gray is a better pitcher than most of the other arms I'm targeting against, but he's far from an ace. Through 24 starts, Gray owns an uninspired 4.33 xERA and 4.32 xFIP. Left-handed hitters are slugging .416 against him this season, part of a .428 career mark.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Seattle Mariners vs. Tylor Megill
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh
Boston Red Sox vs. Zack Greinke
Favorite Plays: Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall, Masataka Yoshida
Also Consider: Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays (FD only)
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