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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 23, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing 10-game matinee mix. The are some weather spots to watch today, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/23/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. COL ($10,800 DK, $10,000 FD)
Jesus Luzardo is far and away the top pitching play on Sunday's main slate. Through 20 starts this season, he carries a 3.34 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The underlying numbers support Luzardo's continued success as well, sporting a 3.56 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, .295 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and a 6.5% walk rate. His marquee fantasy contribution is an outstanding 28.3% strikeout rate, alongside a 30.4% whiff rate. Luzardo is capable of surrendering some power, but he is definitely the surest pitcher today.
The Rockies do not bring a scary offense. They score 4.3 runs per game on the season, which drops to just 3.7 runs away from Coors Field. Colorado also owns a league-worst 69 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, including a .295 wOBA and a generous 26.2% strikeout rate.
Luzardo struggles somewhat against right-handed hitters, but most of the Rockies' key bats are lefty. To add insult to injury, C.J. Cron and Kris Bryant were both injured on Saturday and could each be sidelined again today. This further depletes the Colorado lineup of impactful right-handed bats.
Based on talent and matchup, Luzardo is, without a doubt, today's priority arm.
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. CHW ($9,800 DK, $9,900 FD)
Figuring out your SP2 today is going to be less obvious. For my money, Bailey Ober is the guy if his price isn't too prohibitive. He sports an impressive 2.74 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 15 starts this season. There is some regression in his performance, but Ober remains a solid pitcher with numbers like a 3.59 xERA, .296 xwOBA, .229 xBA, 33.9% hard-hit rate, 88.4 mph average exit velocity, 5.2% walk rate, and 24.3% strikeout rate.
Ober doesn't flash the same upside as Luzardo, but his consistency is the selling point. He's pitched at least six innings in six consecutive starts, surrendering three earned runs or less in each. Ober has also managed double-digit DK points in all but one outing this season.
The White Sox don't present the most difficult matchup for Ober. Chicago scores a middling 4.2 runs per game on the season. That includes a weak 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .677 OPS, .294 wOBA, and 23.5% strikeout rate. Luis Robert Jr. has been other-worldly of late, but the rest of the Chicago lineup is very manageable.
Ober probably can't be expected to dominate, but he's as reliable an arm as you'll find on this slate.
Also consider: Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Taj Bradley
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mookie Betts – 2B, LAD vs. Martin Perez ($6,200 DK, $4,300 FD)
It doesn't take much creativity to determine that Mookie Betts is a good play. He's a great play today. Betts is slashing .278/.381/.569 with 27 home runs this season. That includes a .560 xSLG, .402 xwOBA, .283 xBA, 48.3% hard-hit rate, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, and 12.1% barrel rate. Betts is also slugging .694 with a .424 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
Martin Perez has been awful this season. He carries a 5.59 xERA and 5.12 xFIP through 18 starts. Perez has surrendered an ugly .482 xSLG, .293 xBA, and .361 xwOBA, alongside a career-worst 17% whiff rate. Traditionally, he's been good at limiting power, but that's not the case in 2023. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters are slugging north of .450 against Perez.
Nolan Gorman – 2B, STL vs. Jameson Taillon ($4,100 DK, $3,400 FD)
Nolan Gorman has bounced back nicely from his June slump. He's launched five home runs in July, including three long balls over his past six starts. Overall, Gorman owns a .243/.325/.489 slash line with 20 home runs. That includes a .488 xSLG, .349 xwOBA, 48.7% hard-hit rate, and 14.2% barrel rate.
Jameson Taillon surrenders a .494 xSLG, .353 xwOBA, .275 xBA, and 11.2% barrel rate. In particular, he has a big-time left-handed hitter problem. Lefties are slugging .594 versus Taillon with a .409 wOBA this season.
Wilmer Flores – 1B, SFG vs. MacKenzie Gore ($3,100 DK, $2,900 FD)
Wilmer Flores has been on something of a heater this week. He's hit four home runs and two doubles combined over his past four starts. Overall, he carries an impressive .292/.352/.526 slash line with 12 home runs this season. Flores is slugging .551 with a .224 ISO against southpaws. There's always some pinch-hit risk with the Giants, but Flores is too good of a value to overlook.
MacKenzie Gore has surrendered an ugly .510 xERA through 19 starts this season. That includes a .460 xSLG, 46.3% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate, .266 xBA, 90.5 mph average exit velocity, and .347 xwOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Carroll – OF, ARI vs. Luke Weaver ($6,000 DK, $4,100 FD)
If you can get to his price tag, Corbin Carroll is worth the spend up. He's slashing .281/.360/.541 with 20 home runs and 29 stolen bases this season. Carroll is slugging .591 against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .306 ISO, .405 wOBA, and 155 wRC+.
Luke Weaver is getting brutalized more often than not when he takes the mound. Through 16 starts, he sports a 5.74 xERA, including a .511 xSLG, .288 xBA, 11.2% barrel rate, .365 xwOBA, and 43% hard-hit rate. Hitters of all handedness are slugging north of .480 against Weaver.
Kyle Schwarber – OF, PHI vs. Peyton Battenfield ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD)
Kyle Schwarber is probably the most boom-or-bust hitter in the league right now. He owns a horrible .185 batting average, compensated for by a .465 xSLG, 91.8 mph average exit velocity, 46.5% hard-hit rate, and 15.2% barrel rate. The result is 26 home runs, and a home run is basically what I'm counting on today.
Peyton Battenfield's MLB career is only 34 2/3 innings deep, but the early returns have not been encouraging. He carries a 6.23 xERA, including a .538 xSLG, 14% barrel rate, .378 xwOBA, 50.8% hard-hit rate, 93.5 mph average exit velocity, and .281 xBA. Battenfield has surrendered a .559 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters.
Matt Wallner – OF, MIN vs. Lucas Giolito ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD)
There are plenty of good expensive bats today, so if you need a punt play in the outfield, Matt Wallner is worth a look. Through 16 major-league games this season, he's slashing .303/.452/.424 with a .415 xwOBA and 160 wRC+. Wallner flashed power upside in the minors, smacking 27 home runs across 128 games in 2022.
Lucas Giolito has been vulnerable to the long ball this season. He's surrendered 20 home runs, including a .443 xSLG, 41.8% hard-hit rate, and 10.1% barrel rate. Last season, Giolito's struggles were fairly concentrated to right-handed hitters, but lefties are slugging .446 against him in 2023.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Luke Weaver
The Diamondbacks were chalky yesterday and only put up two runs. Still, they're in another great spot today, and I want to run it back. Arizona scores five runs per game for the season, including a strong 106 wRC+, .767 OPS, and .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Their top-end pieces are costly, but midrange and cheaper bats like Geraldo Perdomo and Jake McCarthy make full stacking accessible. Prioritize Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker as one-offs or as stacking anchors.
Luke Weaver has become a pitcher to stack against every time he takes the mound. Through 16 starts, he sports a 5.74 xERA, including a .511 xSLG, .288 xBA, 11.2% barrel rate, .365 xwOBA, and 43% hard-hit rate. Hitters of all handedness are slugging north of .480 against Weaver. The Diamondbacks will be a challenging matchup for him, and the overwhelmingly hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park won't help Weaver stop the bleeding.
Favorite Plays: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Martin Perez
Stacking the Dodgers is never a bad idea, and today is no exception. Los Angeles scores 5.7 runs per game for the season, the second-highest mark in the majors. That includes a 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, alongside a .776 OPS, .226 ISO, and .334 wOBA. The Dodgers will be expensive to full stack, especially if you're spending up on pitching. But Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and J.D. Martinez are all worth the price of admission. Look to discount bats like Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor for affordable ways to complete your stacks.
Martin Perez is getting hit much harder this season than he's accustomed to. He owns a 5.59 xERA and 5.12 xFIP through 18 starts. Perez has surrendered an awful .482 xSLG, .293 xBA, and .361 xwOBA, alongside a career-worst 17% whiff rate. He's at his best when he's limiting hard contact, but that's not the case in 2023. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters are slugging north of .450 against Perez. Further, the Rangers' bullpen holds a 4.78 ERA, the fourth-worst in baseball this season.
Favorite Plays: Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy
Also Consider: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
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