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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 16, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing 10-game matinee mix on DraftKings and an 11-game selection on FanDuel, which includes the Yankees-Rockies matchup. The are some trick weather spots today, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/16/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Zach Eflin, TB vs. KC ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD)
Zach Eflin is hands down my favorite pitching option on this slate. Through 17 starts this season, he carries a fantastic 2.97 xERA and 3.05 xFIP. That includes a .271 xwOBA, .220 xBA, .363 xSLG, 87.2 mph average exit velocity, 33.8% chase rate, and 26.2% walk rate.
Eflin also sports a fantastic 3.7% walk rate, entering the day off three consecutive outings without issuing a single free pass. He does everything well. The only downside with rostering Eflin is that Tampa Bay tends to play it safe with his workload if the team gets out to a big lead. He was pulled after just five innings and 77 pitches with an 8-2 lead last time out. Still, Eflin has managed six or more innings in 11 of his past 13 starts.
The best part about rostering Eflin today is his matchup. The Royals bring a league-worst 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That includes similarly awful numbers like a .653 OPS and a 24.8% strikeout rate. Kansas City scores an MLB-low 3.6 runs per game on the season, and that figure dropped to 3.3 runs since the beginning of June. The Royals have seemingly supplanted the Athletics as the worst offense in baseball. Eflin could not hope to draw a more favorable matchup.
Eflin's price tag is premium, but he's not unapproachably expensive. My biggest concern here is that the Rays blow out the Royals, and Eflin gets the hook a little prematurely. In that event, he probably still did a great job with whatever innings he was allotted. I expect Eflin chalk, and I don't recommend shying away from it.
Zack Wheeler, PHI vs. SD ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD)
Staying in about the same price range, Zack Wheeler is my second-favorite pitcher to target today. He's coming off an underwhelming stretch of games, but the underlying numbers suggest an ace. Through 18 starts, Wheeler boasts a 3.37 xERA and 3.47 xFIP, alongside similarly impressive numbers like a .288 xwOBA, .353 xSLG, 86.8 mph average exit velocity, 5.4% barrel rate, and a 5% walk rate. Wheeler also strikes out batters at an impressive 26.9% rate. His ceiling is as high as any pitcher on this slate.
The Padres aren't nearly as bad an offense as the Royals, but it's also not a scary spot for Wheeler. San Diego carries a perfectly average 100 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. That includes similarly middling numbers like a .714 OPS and .314 wOBA. Further, Fernando Tatis Jr. injured his ankle and departed Saturday's game early, so there is a strong possibility the Padres leave him out of the lineup today. Wheeler will still have Manny Machado and Juan Soto to contend with, but I like his chances.
Wheeler's path to success isn't as paved as Eflin's, but he's well-positioned to succeed. He isn't likely to carry the same chalk as Eflin, either.
Also consider: Gerrit Cole (FD-only), Justin Steele, Kutter Crawford
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Walker – 1B, ARI vs. Yusei Kikuchi ($5,300 DK, $3,400 FD)
Christian Walker is enjoying a well-rounded season at the dish. He carries a .262/.332/.506 slash line with 18 home runs and 27 doubles. In particular, Walker has been successful against left-handed pitching, posting a .519 slugging percentage, .286 ISO, and 123 wRC+ against southpaws.
Yusei Kikuchi has been unable to shed his persistent home run problem. He's surrendered 22 long balls this season, the second-most in the majors behind only Lance Lynn. Kikuchi owns a horrible .478 xSLG, 10.8% barrel rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .502 against him for his career.
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. Johnny Cueto ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
Following a stumbling start to the season, Gunnar Henderson has established himself as one of the most reliable bats in the Orioles' lineup. Overall, he's slashing .245/.343/.460 with 14 home runs but carries an impressive .910 OPS and 151 wRC+ since the beginning of June.
Johnny Cueto gets activated from the injured list today, and my expectations for him are pretty low. He got lit up for four runs in one inning during his lone outing of the season in April. Cueto's track record is great, but it's reasonable to believe the 37-year-old doesn't have much left in the tank. Cueto posted a 10.24 ERA across seven appearances in his recent rehab stint between Double-A and Triple-A.
CJ Abrams – SS, WAS vs. Jack Flaherty ($2,900 DK, $2,700 FD)
CJ Abrams is an underrated play today. His overall numbers aren't terribly impressive, but Abrams is slashing .385/.429/.564 over his last 10 games. That stretch includes four extra-base hits and seven stolen bases. Abrams is unlikely to go yard, though he's hitting out of the leadoff spot these days and making the most of the opportunity. He's a worthwhile punt if you need to fill out your shortstop slot for cheap.
Jack Flaherty is having another mediocre campaign. He owns an uninspiring 4.88 xERA, .341 xwOBA, and .263 xBA. By far, Flaherty's biggest problem is his horrible 11.8% walk rate. If Abrams can get on base, either by walk or a base hit, look for him to use his legs to generate fantasy points.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Robert Jr. – OF, CWS vs. Kolby Allard ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)
Luis Robert Jr. is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He boasts a .983 OPS, 165 wRC+, and .408 wOBA with 13 home runs since the beginning of June. Overall, Robert sports a strong .269/.326/.564 slash line with 26 home runs this season. He's slugging .640 against southpaws with a .320 ISO.
Kolby Allard has pitched just 10 2/3 innings in the majors this season, but he carries a career 5.99 ERA across 243 1/3 innings. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters have slugging percentages north of .460 against Allard in his career.
Luke Raley – 1B/OF, TB vs. Brady Singer ($4,300 DK, $3,300 FD)
Along with numerous other Rays bats, Luke Raley is a great play today. He's slashing .279/.356/.571 with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases. That includes a .525 xSLG, .372 xwOBA, 49.3% hard-hit rate, 92.1 mph average exit velocity, and a 16.4% barrel rate.
Brady Singer doesn't have it this year. He sports an awful 5.75 xERA through 18 starts. That consists of a 52.3% hard-hit rate, .482 xSLG, .366 xwOBA, .297 xBA, and a 92 mph average exit velocity. Singer hasn't surrendered too many home runs, but he's getting hit about as hard as any pitcher in baseball in 2023.
Jesus Sanchez – OF, MIA vs. Kyle Bradish ($2,900 DK, $2,700 FD)
For the cheap price, Jesus Sanchez is worth a flier today. He's hit safely in nine of his past 10 starts, accumulating three home runs in that span. Sanchez boasts a solid .260/.317/.479 slash line overall this season, but the underlying numbers suggest he's hitting the ball much better. Sanchez carries a fantastic .515 xSLG, .367 xwOBA, 49.3% hard-hit rate, 13.4% barrel rate, and .283 xBA.
Kyle Bradish is having a strong campaign, headlined by a 3.32 ERA. However, the advanced metrics aren't so supportive of his success. Bradish sports a mediocre 4.41 xERA, including a .430 xSLG, 44.4% hard-hit rate, and 90.6 mph average exit velocity.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Baltimore Orioles vs. Johnny Cueto
The Orioles have been one of the league's stronger offenses this season. They score five runs per game, including a 106 wRC+, .748 OPS, and .323 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. They might be without Cedric Mullins today, though there are more than enough options between guys like Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson to build formidable full stacks. Baltimore bats are reasonably priced, considering their upside, and find themselves in a very opportunistic matchup.
Though he'll likely follow an opener, Johnny Cueto gets the nod for Miami. He's making only his second appearance of the season after getting shelled for four runs in one inning back in April and subsequently landing on the injured list. At 37 years old, I plainly don't believe Cueto has much left in him at this point. Cueto posted a 10.24 ERA across seven appearances in his recent rehab stint between Double-A and Triple-A, further clouding his outlook. I anticipate the Orioles jump on Cueto early and often.
Favorite Plays: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Brady Singer
My favorite stack today is the Rays. They score 5.4 runs per game this season. That includes an MLB-best 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .780 OPS and .338 wOBA. Yandy Diaz is expected back from the paternity list on Sunday, adding to an already scary lineup. Most of their key stacking pieces will come at a bit of a cost, but they are not prohibitively expensive.
Brady Singer ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He sports an awful 5.75 xERA through 18 starts. That includes a 52.3% hard-hit rate, .482 xSLG, .366 xwOBA, .297 xBA, and a 92 mph average exit velocity. Even if Singer gets chased early, the Royals' bullpen owns a terrible 5.17 ERA, the second-worst mark in baseball.
Favorite Plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz
Also Consider: Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks
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