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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 5, 2023. Brenton Kemp's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
There are 11 games on what is an attractive slate both from a starting pitching and hitting standpoint. Which arms will reign supreme? That is the question as we look for a foundation to build upon as we trudge forward toward the weekend!
Remember, this 11-game slate locks at 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 5 so be sure to get your lineups set and locked before that deadline! Remember, feel free to give me a follow and hit me up on Twitter @BKemp17 with any comments, questions, or banter when it comes to these free MLB DFS picks!
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Let's get after it and come out on top tonight!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Burnes - SP, MIL vs. San Francisco Giants ($9,300 DK, $10,800 FD)
It's awfully difficult to dislike Corbin Burnes at a reasonable price on both sites tonight as he takes on the Giants tonight on the road.
It hasn't been vintage Burnes so far this season but the strikeout upside here is massive. The right-hander is simply due for some massive positive regression in the strikeout department. Burnes owns a tiny 19.7% K% on the season, a mark miles below his 31.4% career mark while this matchup is a perfect one for him to get back on track.
Indeed, the Giants rank dead last with a 27.4% K% on the season. For good measure, they also rank dead last with a 26.2% K% against right-handed pitching.
Burnes should be in for a big night tonight in San Fran.
Kodai Senga - SP, NYM vs. Colorado Rockies ($10,200 DK, $9,800 FD)
Kodai Senga has had some control issues through his first five starts in the big leagues but the strikeouts have been there in waves and he takes on a Rockies offense that has been notoriously poor in any venue not named Coors Field in recent seasons.
While Senga sports an unhealthy 15.4% BB% on the season, he also sports a hefty 27.4% K% through the first 26 innings of his big-league tenure.
For their part, the Rockies sit 29th with a .274 wOBA on the road this season while their 27.1% K% on the road checks in at 28th. Yep, this is a matchup we need to pay up for on this slate.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Eric Haase - C, DET vs. Jordan Montgomery ($3,000 DK, $2,500 FD)
We're paying up for pitching on this slate as we need a solid foundation while I have no problem combing through the value with the plethora of bats available.
Take Eric Haase, for instance. Haase long looked for his first homer this season and then hit his first two within a 24-hour span against the Mets this week. The righty-swinging catcher -- who can also be had in the outfield -- is 5-for-11 with two homers and a double along with six RBI over his last two games.
He also handles left-handed pitching well as he takes on Jordan Montgomery. He owns a .222 isolated power and .816 OPS off of them this season and a .234 ISO and .820 OPS off of them for his career. Great value potential here.
Ketel Marte - 2B, ARI vs. Josiah Gray ($5,400 DK, $3,000 FD)
I certainly prefer Ketel Marte on FanDuel as the value upside increase there but he is in a nice spot tonight at home against Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray.
Give Gray credit. He has serious home run issues prior to this season but he's been much better in that department while increasing his ground-ball rate alongside a 2.67 ERA to this point. However, he also sports a 4.40 FIP and 4.58 SIERA which both point to regression even if his 5.3% barrel rate against is well above the league average.
Nonetheless, Marte should be in for a solid night. The switch-hitter already has five homers on the season along with an .839 OPS in 28 games. He's been better against lefties but owns an attractive .221 ISO off righties as well.
Let's see if we can target Gray for some regression on this slate.
Bretty Baty - 3B, NYM vs. Antonio Senzatela ($2,600 DK, $2,700 FD)
What does Brett Baty have to do to get some respect?
No, I'm not that upset but man are we getting a great price with the Mets' 23-year-old third baseman. After clobbering Triple-A pitching beyond belief to earn a big-league promotion, Baty is hitting .311 with two homers and an .856 OPS in 14 MLB contests. His .373 wOBA is excellent but his .383 xwOBA supports his work in a big way.
At this price, Baty is a near-must on this slate at the hot corner.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
MJ Melendez - OF, KC vs. Kyle Muller ($4,000 DK, $2,800 FD)
MJ Melendez is off to a slow start this season... on the surface. Actually, the slow start was halted with a three-hit afternoon against the Orioles on Thursday while he's actually been punishing the baseball this season.
Melendez ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate while also sitting in the 86th percentile in barrel rate. This is actually a lefty-on-lefty matchup with the struggling Kyle Muller but Melendez owns a .231 ISO and .896 OPS against same-handed pitching this season.
At this price, all of the above is good enough for me.
JJ Bleday - OF, OAK vs. Brad Keller ($2,000 DK, $2,200 FD)
I mean... come on. The guy hits his first career MLB home run and comes in at the minimum at DraftKings? Against Brad Keller? I mean, Keller doesn't have home run issues but this is a major bargain against a guy who has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the last two seasons.
JJ Bleday wreaked havoc on Triple-A pitching this season with a .316 average alongside seven homers and a 1.072 OPS across 119 trips to the plate before getting the call to the big leagues.
Bleday offers you so much lineup flexibility it is silly on this 11-game slate.
Teoscar Hernandez - OF, SEA vs. Cristian Javier ($4,300 DK, $2,800 FD)
TeOscar Hernandez has seven homers on the season, so it's not as if he's struggling all that badly. At the same time, he's also hitting .213 with a monster 34.6% K%. His 88 wRC+ tells us his bat has been 12% below the league average.
However, Hernandez also ranks in the 88th percentile in barrel rate, 80th in hard-hit rate, and 77th in average exit velocity. He's not walking at all which is destroying his overall numbers and value but he is hitting the ball very hard.
Javier is obviously a very good pitcher but can be susceptible to the long ball. He owns an elevated 1.34 HR/9 on the season which is nearly identical to his career 1.30 mark. A career 27.6% ground-ball rate can do that to you.
Hernandez should be had a low ownership tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
New York Mets vs. Antonio Senzatela
Baty is obviously providing nice value upside but he's not the only one in the Mets lineup doing so. Daniel Vogelbach is a power-hitting first baseman at a cheap rate while Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor make plenty of sense. Remember, we're not only targeting Senzatela in his first start since suffering a torn ACL last season but also a Rockies bullpen thanks ranks 23rd with a 4.50 ERA on the season.
Detroit Tigers vs. Jordan Montgomery
Sure, the Tigers might stink but they just roughed up Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander for multiple home runs and have some dirt-cheap bats that fit well with our expensive pitchers noted above.
In addition to Haase, Javier Baez is white-hot at the plate as he too hit his first two homers of the series against the Mets this week while Matt Vierling is enjoying a real nice season from a power/speed combination out of the leadoff spot. Tack on a Riley Greene or Spencer Torkelson and we could be in business against Montgomery who owns a mediocre 4.03 SIERA and a 0.26 HR/9 that is due for regression considering his 1.09 mark for his career. Grab the value while it's hot!
Good luck tonight, everyone!
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