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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on October 1, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering the final DFS slate of the regular season. I'm aware that NFL season is underway, but I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of MLB games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features a rare 15-game matinee mix. The weather looks like it could get tricky, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but with the regular season coming to an end today, there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 10/1/2023 and the slate locking at 3:05 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Hunter Greene, CIN vs. STL ($8,800 DK, $10,300 FD)
I suspect that top arms like Kevin Gausman and Kyle Bradish won't take on full workloads today as their teams prep for the playoffs. Given that, I think it makes sense to skip over them and shoot for high-upside plays like Hunter Greene. With the Reds playing for nothing, it's likely Greene will be allowed to pitch as deep as he can manage. Through 21 starts, he sports a solid 3.74 xERA and 3.98 xFIP. That includes a .210 xBA, .300 xwOBA, and a .378 xSLG. Greene's control issues can get him into trouble, but he strikes out batters at a 30.9% rate, giving him very appealing fantasy value.
The Cardinals have completely unraveled at this point. There's no Nolan Arenado or Nolan Gorman, and they scored only 3.8 runs per game in September. That includes a weak 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, with a .668 OPS and .295 wOBA. This isn't the caliber of Cardinals lineups that we are used to seeing.
Michael King, NYY vs. KC ($8,000 DK, $8,600 FD)
His rise to prominence has been abrupt, but Michael King may end up being the chalkiest pitcher on this slate. Through 100 2/3 innings pitched this season, he boasts an impressive 2.50 ERA and 3.32 xFIP. King is dominating hitters, posting a .278 xwOBA, 31.3% hard-hit rate, .216 xBA, 86.4 mph average exit velocity, 6.4% barrel rate, .338 xSLG, and 30.6% strikeout rate. He's worked primarily out of the bullpen this season, though King has surrendered only four earned runs over 34 1/3 innings since being installed as a starter in August.
The Royals are coming off their best offensive month of the season. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are always capable of inflicting damage, but Kansas City still falls short of being an intimidating opponent. They carry just an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, including a .693 OPS, .300 wOBA, and a 23.1% strikeout rate.
Also consider: Kevin Gausman, Justin Steele, Reid Detmers
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. Tanner Houck ($5,400 DK, $3,700 FD)
Although there's technically no need for Gunnar Henderson to play today, it stands to reason that he'll take his reps with the Orioles facing several off days before kicking off their postseason run. Henderson's rookie campaign was a resounding success, posting a .257/.325/.492 with 28 home runs and a 124 wRC+. That includes a 51.8% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate, .468 xSLG, and 92 mph average exit velocity.
Tanner Houck has some legitimate potential, but left-handed hitters are a major problem for him. Lefties are slugging .534 against Houck this season. Depending on what kind of lineup the Orioles roll out, they should have several bats well-positioned to succeed today.
Brandon Drury – 1B, LAA vs. JP Sears ($4,300 DK, $3,000 FD)
Brandon Drury is one of the few bright spots for the Angels these days. He's slashing .258/.301/.480 with 24 home runs overall this season. That includes a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 10.7% barrel rate. Drury owns a .462 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers for his career.
Through 31 starts in 2023, JP Sears owns a mediocre 4.70 xERA and 5.10 xFIP. That includes a .448 xSLG and an 11% barrel rate. Sears has allowed 32 home runs this season, including 26 long balls to right-handed hitters.
Austin Wells – C, NYY vs. Zack Greinke ($3,100 DK, $2,600 FD)
Austin Wells has already showcased his power stroke during his brief MLB tenure. Through 18 games, he boasts a .544 xSLG, 13.2% barrel rate, 43.4% hard-hit rate, and .352 xwOBA. Wells struggled initially following his promotion, but he's gone deep in four of his last seven games.
Zack Greinke is far from what he used to be. Across 29 appearances, he brings a 4.99 xERA and 4.42 xFIP. That includes a .476 xSLG and .286 xBA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .568 against Greinke in 2023.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez – OF, HOU vs. Ryne Nelson ($6,000 DK, $4,000 FD)
If Yordan Alvarez plays, he'll be an excellent guy to roster today. He carries a fantastic .292/.407/.585 slash line with 31 home runs and a 171 wRC+. Alvarez's underlying metrics are astonishing, featuring a .627 xSLG, 52.7% hard-hit rate, 18.4% barrel rate, 93.4 mph average exit velocity, and a .440 xwOBA.
Ryne Nelson's 2023 campaign has been uninspiring. Through 28 appearances, he sports a 5.27 xERA and 5.31 xFIP. That includes a .486 xSLG, 11.4% barrel rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, .267 xBA, and 42.7% hard-hit rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .535 against Nelson.
Juan Soto – OF, SD vs. Jose Urena ($5,500 DK, $4,300 FD)
Despite the disappointing finish for the Padres, Juan Soto had a fantastic season. He owns a .275/.409/.519 slash line with 35 home runs and a 154 wRC+. That includes some impressive advanced metrics, like a .537 xSLG, 55.2% hard-hit rate, 13.1% barrel rate, 93.2 mph average exit velocity, and a .408 xwOBA.
Jose Urena has only made nine starts in 2023, but the results haven't been pretty. He carries a 6.04 xERA and 5.65 xFIP. That includes an awful .520 xSLG, 11.9% barrel rate, 42.5% hard-hit rate, and 92 mph average exit velocity. Left-handed hitters are slugging .602 against Urena, part of a .484 career mark.
Matt Wallner – OF, MIN vs. Chase Anderson ($4,300 DK, $3,300 FD)
Matt Wallner has shown an ability to take over offensively. He sports a .251/.373/.512 slash line with 14 home runs and a 140 wRC+ through 75 games played. That consists of a .502 xSLG, 17.7% barrel rate, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and 47.7% hard-hit rate.
Calling Coors Field home isn't easy for any pitcher, but Chase Anderson isn't well-equipped to navigate that distinction. Across 19 appearances, he owns a 4.96 xERA and 5.35 xFIP. That includes a .440 xSLG and a .258 xBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Minnesota Twins vs. Chase Anderson
Favorite Plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien
San Diego Padres vs. Jose Urena
Favorite Plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim
Also Consider: Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves
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