RADIO
Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The American Express. His under-owned PGA DFS value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back, RotoBallers to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the American Express on DraftKings! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - American Express
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Every Course In California?
7,200 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Overseeded Poa
Boy, oh boy. Where do we start with this tricky tournament that plays across three venues and has a Saturday cut after 54 holes? Events like this can be a headache for numerous reasons, but we get an added layer of trouble on top of it when you consider two of the three courses won't have Stat Tracker available. I don't know if there is necessarily a good place to begin, but let's start at the beginning with what we should expect.
As I mentioned, golfers will spend their first three days rotating between the PGA West Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta. That gives us an abnormal Saturday cut since parity needs to play out with everyone seeing all three tracks, but the top-65 golfers (and ties) will continue the awkward trek back to the Stadium Course on Sunday to wrap up the festivities. From a statistical perspective, or at least a modeling standpoint, we don't have a ton of rollover data that has proven to be pertinent. That doesn't mean there isn't a specific skillset that might be better suited to find success, but there are consistency problems anytime you rotate the venues each day. Look no further at how challenging it can be on a typical week to identify one stop, so the fact that we need to do this three times (while two aren't helping provide any information) is less than ideal.
Now, with all that being said, I believe there are things worth considering. All three layouts are under 7,200 yards. We know each has four par-fives that are critical to finding success. It is generally a good idea to keep metrics as simple as possible in these complicated situations, but I don't mind placing some of our research directly on the Stadium Course. There you will get 50% of the rounds and all the tracking. In theory, it will be your most challenging of the group, but I would take that comment lightly. We have gotten an average winning score of 24-under over the past 10 iterations of this event. Nine of the holes at the Stadium Course will have water that comes into play. Extensive bunkering can make finding fairways imperative, especially when looking into that these fairways produce some of the highest percentages on tour in birdie percentage when you play out of them. But I highly advise everyone to figure out what they believe to be quantifiable amongst the three stops and then build a model out there. It becomes way too convoluted when you try to mix and match everything into one.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Stadium Course | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 278 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 58% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 65% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.34 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, Jon Rahm leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Patrick Cantlay at 9/1, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im and Tony Finau at 20/1 and Corey Conners at 22/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Total On Pete Dye 10%
- Strokes Gained Total On Easy/Short Courses 25%
- Weighted Par-Three 10%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
- Total Driving 25%
- GIR Out Of Fairway Bunkers 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($11,300) - In fairness, this would likely be your answer for any tournament in the world - regardless of the field. Jon Rahm graded out about as well as any golfer ever has in my model over the past four years. The Spaniard ranks inside the top-20 in every statistical metric, including being first in half of them.
- Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) - Let's be honest...the answer is Jon Rahm, but we need some diversity in this article. Scottie Scheffler is typically a little boom-or-bust for my liking, but his par-five scoring will look to replicate his third-place finish here in 2020 and not the missed cut last year.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($10,200) - Your best contrarian leverage is going to come from Tony Finau, who is the only sub-10 percent golfer in this range. The American has posted two top-14 finishes at the American Express in his career and has always done his best work on courses that allow him to hit freely off the tee. I believe he has that in front of him this weekend in California, and his Poa skills might just make him an intriguing sleeper that is going under the radar.
- Fade: None
- Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($11,300)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Talor Gooch ($9,700) - To be honest, I am not playing a ton of these $9,000 options myself, although Talor Gooch is the one that I find myself considering the most. Gooch is one of the top par-five scorers in this field and continues to ride his form from the end of 2021.
- Most Upside: Sungjae Im ($9,900) - Let's call the performance from Sungjae Im last week a hiccup. That missed cut came out of left field, and he has proven to be steady at this tournament - posting three top-12s in his three attempts.
- Favorite GPP Play: Matthew Wolff ($9,300) - I am fine with the notion of dart-throwing Matthew Wolff at sub-10 percent ownership because of his upside. If he ends up creeping higher than that, I do believe there are other routes to go, especially in the $8000's, but his par-five scoring ability and affinity for easy tracks is not a secret.
- Fade: None - Sure, there are players I won't find myself having any exposure to for the week, but it isn't because of an inferior rank. Everyone $8,000 or above ranks inside the top-30 of my mode. That means ownership will be the number one decider in breaking ties.
- Most Likely Winner: Talor Gooch ($9,700)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Justin Rose ($8,600) - I really like Justin Rose this week. It is weird for him to make the "safe" category when we know about some of his struggles over the past few years, but this is an ideal set of tracks for him to find some rhythm.
- Most Upside: Si Woo Kim ($8,300) - Si Woo Kim didn't necessarily come through for us last week at the Sony Open, but I like going back down the well at a course he enters as the defending champion. Kim ranks inside the top-10 for both Pete Dye scoring and easy courses under 7,200 yards, and he also grades inside the top-10 for par-five birdie or better percentage.
- Favorite GPP Play: Alex Noren ($8,400) - I wasn't jumping up and down to play Alex Noren this week, but I think that goes to show why he is extremely undervalued. His current projections have him less than five percent owned, and he is one of the best pivots on the board, according to my model.
- Fade: None - I know. Boring.
- Most Likely Winner: Si Woo Kim ($8,300)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Talor Moore ($7,300) - Talor Moore is quickly becoming one of my top KFT graduates.
- Most Upside: Jason Day ($7,300) - Cue the music. Hit the fire alarm. Do whatever it takes to get excited for the real Jason Day week. I know you have heard this from me for the past four years, but the stars are starting to align for the Aussie. Day ranks first on Poa over his last 50 rounds and is also sixth at easy courses under 7,200 yards. I know everyone wants to say the 34-year-old is washed, but those numbers come from a recent enough sample size to get intrigued.
- Favorite GPP Play: Martin Laird ($7,000) - We are guaranteed 54 holes. I don't think he is a lock to make the cut, but we have seen him compete and win in the desert before.
- Fade: Troy Merritt ($7,300)
- Most Likely Winner: JASON DAY ($7,300)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Henrik Norlander $6,900, Dylan Frittelli $6,800, Hudson Swafford $6,700, Sepp Straka $6,700, Tyler McCumber $6,600, J.T. Poston $6,400, Chan Kim $6,100
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